Impact of China's rise in the world - Long term predictions (30-50 years)


Jono

Junior Member
Registered Member
I do not mistake the actual reason for china’s rise. it is indeed the chinese communist party.

However, you mistake china’s actual reason for rising to be only possible reason for china to rise, and furthermore you think other country can’t rise with something like the chinese communist party.

The latter two viewa are something the chinese communist party depends on for its own security, but they are almost certainly fallacious.
you have not yet shared with us why you think India will rise in the future, other than having a big population.
even that will be detrimental, if illiteracy rate is high, and the people are not skilled workers.
besides, India will not be given the opportunity to industrialize itself by the west, since westerners have had enough with one industrialized China, they have no stomach for another China rising from India-land. so a massive population of unemployed and unskilled youth is actually a bane, not a boom.
 

sndef888

Junior Member
Registered Member
NO!

KMT has never been a bastion of strength and clairvoyance. There are some deep rooted American gilded age influences in their founding elites. KMT only shown some level of governance during their dictatorship days, while CCP has mostly managed it success udint collective governance by poliburo. Overall, CCP has shown far more dynamism and adaptiveness. KMT has demonstrate a level of ossification.

On the membership front, CCP has like 90 million active members. As of 2020 KMT has like 350k members. So if they merged there will be 1 KMT member for every 270 CCP members. Hardly competitive.

Anyone care to share what they think KMT could print to the party?

BTW, I think without China taking over, Taiwan will slowly morph into the equivalent of Puerto Rico.
Regarding the highlighted part, I see it as a positive. It would be a merger in name only (to reset perceptions and reunify Taiwan ideologically) while in reality it would be absorbing the KMT and removing Taiwan independence forces. Perhaps a ceremonial vice president role to the last KMT leader
 

steel21

Junior Member
Registered Member
Regarding the highlighted part, I see it as a positive. It would be a merger in name only (to reset perceptions and reunify Taiwan ideologically) while in reality it would be absorbing the KMT and removing Taiwan independence forces. Perhaps a ceremonial vice president role to the last KMT leader
Have you tried integrating 2 units in Army? 2 units that share the same admin system, same DA forms, same training regime, and yet it is always a fucking pain in the ass.

What you are talking about is integrating two distinct interest group with its own Political action committee, history, donors, and benefactors. You are going to wind up upsetting both the KMT interest group and the resident CCP interests. The resultant headache is not worth the hassle.

There is a distinct organizational difference between the two. CCP is a party in name only. It functions more like the OFFICER COPRS of the Chinese population. If you look at its organizational size and structure, where leaders are promoted successively up the ranks and jurisdiction, the way it has 3 intersecting career tracks, it really reminds me of the commissioned officer career track of the U.S. Army.

Now, look at the KMT. They are a classic political action organization based loosely on societal elites that may or may not have given experience of someone who has worked at the village (platoon), county (company), city(battalion), provincial (brigade/div) levels.

You can't integrate the two without upsetting the career track of junior CCP members who have worked their way up, sewing the seeds of discontent in the CCP for a generation.

What you could probably do is open CCP auxiliary membership on the island (and only on the island) to qualified KMT and DPP members, allowing them to work their way up from the grassroot level, through community service, with CCP oversight.
 
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Gatekeeper

Brigadier
Registered Member
it is not wise to discount the potential of 1.4 billion people, likely to be 2-2.5 billion+ in 50 years, because of issues it exhibits now. where might a foreign observer with passing familiarity with what is happening with china in 1971 have predicted where china might be in 2021?

If in 50 years India’s GDP per capita still remains 1/3 of china’s as it is now, Indian economy would likely be larger than that of the US. In reality, China has reached the point of development that would see development rate level off, where as india can still expect 2 or 3 decades of rapid growth, so the ratio of GDP per capita would decline. so India would almost certainly be physically and economically stronger than the US in 50 years. India being far closer than the US would be a far more prominent fixture in the china’s geopolitical world than the US.

OMG. Do you really know what you're saying? So population size is the key! Yeah, let's or go forth and multiply. Problem solved!

you have not yet shared with us why you think India will rise in the future, other than having a big population.
even that will be detrimental, if illiteracy rate is high, and the people are not skilled workers.
besides, India will not be given the opportunity to industrialize itself by the west, since westerners have had enough with one industrialized China, they have no stomach for another China rising from India-land. so a massive population of unemployed and unskilled youth is actually a bane, not a boom.

Exactly, gee he's economic skills are zero. For instant why need to expand population as it is now, India is already larger in population than the west combined. So how come after over 70 years of "independence" from their Lord and master, their economic size still smaller than some of the G7 countries? Particularly U.S. and China?
 

sndef888

Junior Member
Registered Member
Have you tried integrating 2 units in Army? 2 units that share the same admin system, same DA forms, same training regime, and yet it is always a fucking pain in the ass.

What you are talking about is integrating two distinct interest group with its own Political action committee, history, donors, and benefactors. You are going to wind up upsetting both the KMT interest group and the resident CCP interests. The resultant headache is not worth the hassle.

There is a distinct organizational difference between the two. CCP is a party in name only. It functions more like the OFFICER COPRS of the Chinese population. If you look at its organizational size and structure, where leaders are promoted successively up the ranks and jurisdiction, the way it has 3 intersecting career tracks, it really reminds me of the commissioned officer career track of the U.S. Army.

Now, look at the KMT. They are a classic political action organization based loosely on societal elites that may or may not have given experience of someone who has worked at the village (platoon), county (company), city(battalion), provincial (brigade/div) levels.

You can't integrate the two without upsetting the career track of junior CCP members who have worked their way up, sewing the seeds of discontent in the CCP for a generation.

What you could probably do is open CCP auxiliary membership on the island (and only on the island) to qualified KMT and DPP members, allowing them to work their way up from the grassroot level, through community service, with CCP oversight.
The headache is definitely worth the hassle if it brings about peaceful reunification of Taiwan. Integrating 350k people peacefully surely is a heck of a lot better than 350k deaths in war.

Anyway, its just discussion. I doubt I'll see either before I'm one step in my grave.
 

steel21

Junior Member
Registered Member
The headache is definitely worth the hassle if it brings about peaceful reunification of Taiwan. Integrating 350k people peacefully surely is a heck of a lot better than 350k deaths in war.

Anyway, its just discussion. I doubt I'll see either before I'm one step in my grave.
How many of those 350k are actual members and how many just happen to tick that box during voter registration?

How many are diehard KMT that are will to go full Allah Akbar on PLA?

My guess that there are perhaps only really about 50k fully committed members. They can continue to participate in the political process given they pledge an allegiance to nation. They can function much as the Democratic party on the mainland. But their performance will tracked and graded much as other government officials elsewhere in China. There will be no elections, but performance will be compared and vetted against their peers regardless of party affiliation.

The headache is only worth if they capitulate and help with the capitulation of other individuals and organizations. Once blood is shed by PLA, then the deal is off. In other words, there has to be a tangible trade off for China in the deal.
 

solarz

Brigadier
The headache is definitely worth the hassle if it brings about peaceful reunification of Taiwan. Integrating 350k people peacefully surely is a heck of a lot better than 350k deaths in war.

Anyway, its just discussion. I doubt I'll see either before I'm one step in my grave.

You'll see reunification a lot sooner than you think.
 

steel21

Junior Member
Registered Member
You'll see reunification a lot sooner than you think.
Indeed, probably by 2025, if not sooner. Perhaps even before 2023.

At the rate the US-China confrontation is going, China will need to take some chip off the table before US parks any serious assets on the island, as such enhanced IAD or Aegis Ashore.

The whole SOF training and Security Brigade assistance mean jack shit. It looks nice for the camera, but means very little in a peer to peer contest where the adversary can throw loitering munitions and ER rockets at you within minutes.
 

Richard Santos

Senior Member
Registered Member
The nationalists in Taiwan do not seem to be
OMG. Do you really know what you're saying? So population size is the key! Yeah, let's or go forth and multiply. Problem solved!



Exactly, gee he's economic skills are zero. For instant why need to expand population as it is now, India is already larger in population than the west combined. So how come after over 70 years of "independence" from their Lord and master, their economic size still smaller than some of the G7 countries? Particularly U.S. and China?
actually, go forth an multiply is much of the key. the best predictor of Long term economic power tends to be population, provided the population can be supported. population is the fundamental reason is why Germany surpassed france and britain, why the united states surpassed britain and germany, and population really is the only reason why china will surpass the united states. So long as the population does not exceed the carrying capacity of the land, and the development is not artificially suppressed, and relatively free commerce in capital, product snd raw material is available, ratio of economic output in the long run trends towards ratio of population.

People tend to latch onto stories of their success as the only legitimate representative of their own deserts snd worth, and ignore past failures as also reflecting some deeper and perhaps not really fundamentally resolved issues.

As to why India economic output remain below that of some of G7 for 70 years despite having popukation larger than all of G7, hmmmm, good question. China’s population has also always been greater than that of the g7 combined, yet Chinese economic output remain less than that of some of the G7 for 150 years. maybe you should ask the chinese why.

If the indians are as good as the chinese in “rising”, they ought to have another 80 years to do it.
 
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