Hong-Kong Protests

KYli said:

Gatekeeper isn't serious about sending in the PLA.

Click to expand...

I hope so.

Cutting back water supply is bad publicity.

Click to expand...

As I said, I would simply let Hong Kong keep losing economically. Only if the island declared independence would I reduce the water supply to where showers are not possible.

Simply keeping mainland money from flowing to HK and discouraging tourists to visit HK are enough to bring HK economy down a few notches.

Click to expand...

Yes. Expanding the harbors of Shanghai, Ningbo, and Shenzhen, thus taking even more business from Hong Kong, would also do it. (Note: these harbors are already bigger than Hong Kong.)

Although I would say if the HKPF can't keep the rioters from even more extreme violence, then the central government might have no choice because it becomes a sovereignty issue.

Click to expand...

No, Beijing will have many choices.

The result of this election shows that Beijing made the right call not to intervene. It shows that the people of HK have no wish to stand up to the rioters and end the violence.

Therefore, let them reap what they sow.

manqiangrexue said:

Most people considered the cultural revolution a terrible mistake. It did have many consequences, but one thing it did well was make Chinese people patriotic by making lives unlivable for those who weren't. After the cultural revolution, the culture in China became ingrained as one of nationalism even as the harms done by that period were slowly peeled away. The wisdom of the CCP can often only be seen decades afterwards. Hong Kong desperately needs a crash course cultural revolution where Red Guards line the streets ready to dispatch anyone by martial law and everyone is too scared to whimper so much as an anti-China word for fear of disappearing in the middle of the night, and I mean fearing it because everyone has several friends that it happened to, not because Western media told them it would happen. It would be brutal, but will transform the culture of Hong Kong into one of nationalism. Critics may say one cannot force others to give him their love, but lies repeated ad nauseum become truths (not applicable to science) and in the end, everyone respects power. The other problems that arise as a result can be dealt with later but there is no problem in the world as severe as hatred for one's own country and thus oneself.

Click to expand...

you have no freaking knowledge of what living through the Cultural Revolution was like. I was too young to remember but my parent told me plenty of horror stories. Don’t ever call CR a necessary evil again.

I do agree let HK rot.

I disagree that Beijing has that many options when it comes to sovereignty. Beijing didn't send tens of thousands of PAPs to Shenzhen just for dog and pony show. Beijing sent the PAPs to make sure that if the HKPF failed to contain the violence, then the martial law would be declared.

You guys are reading way way too much into this. History has already shown the likely outcomes. Two main points.

1. Any independence talk is not going to be on the table. Everyone knows that is the red line, even the more extreme of the anti-China politicians know this.

Look at the history, in mid 90’s-early 00’s, ROC had qualitative advantage over PRC military. They never declared independence. Strategically speaking, that was probably the best opportunity, no carriers, no AESA radars, Russian export Su-27/30, Luhu DDG was still backbone of the PLAN.

HK has no military at all. Would a politician really be that daring to do something like that? It would put so many lives at risk and I really do not think there is a plurality of support anyway.

On top of that, does any HK politician with half a brain really believe west would help them? They let a relatively weakened Russian army waltz into Crimea with only some peeps.

2. Winning an election is the easy part. You can promise the world, but it’s another thing to deliver on it. Obama and peace, May and Brexit, etc.

Will these people handle their constituents local concerns, or will they waste their time chasing political goals?

Nationalist/Independence parties rarely deliver on this front. Using ROC again as an example, DPP never sustains long term success because their ideas of disengagement from PRC are unrealistic and always weighs down the economy.

For HK this is even more unrealistic. Honestly, if a pro-independence politician could totally separate HK’s economy from mainland and actually grow it, they are a genius and deserves the support. (Yes, sarcasm)

manqiangrexue said:

That sounds like the more reasonable people will just move out of Hong Kong

Click to expand...

And abandon their very, very expensive homes? (With Hong Kong's economy in the tank, far worse than now, they'd have serious trouble finding any buyers for the homes; they would take enormous losses if they moved out.)

No, long before the situation decayed to your scenario, the sensible majority would ask for help from the mainland. By then, it would be obvious that Shenzhen was in far better economic condition.

vincent said:

you have no freaking knowledge of what living through the Cultural Revolution was like. I was too young to remember but my parent told me plenty of horror stories. Don’t ever call CR a necessary evil again.

Click to expand...

I didn't call it a necessary evil; I said it's more good than evil and I'll say it again. Anything that crushes disloyalty and creates a culture of nationalism is needed at some point, no matter the cost. "I don't remember but my parents told me" isn't all that convincing for how much of a personal hell you went through and quite frankly sounds like you have about as much an idea of it as I do because I also heard plenty of stories from my parents and grandparents. My mother's side of the family complained just like your parents, but they weren't very patriotic; they mostly wanted self-benefit so they got pushed around quite a lot. My father's side were shining patriots and everyone just had a wonderful day everyday (other than being poor of course). So, in short, as it should be, be patriotic, be willing to sacrifice for your country, and your attitude will be rewarded. That's what the CR is about and that's what HK needs desperately.

Nutrient said:

And abandon their very, very expensive homes? (With Hong Kong's economy in the tank, far worse than now, they'd have serious trouble finding any buyers for the homes; they would take enormous losses if they moved out.)

Click to expand...

Yeah, exactly. You take a loss and you get out. An economy that's in the gutter with no water supply, and why would you want to stay? I would sell my house for whatever I can get for it and leave. I don't serve my house; it serves me. Than a cockroach will buy it up for next to nothing and Hong Kong will turn into a dead economy with cockroaches as its main do-nothing tenants. That's no end-game for me.

Nutrient said:

No, long before the situation decayed to your scenario, the sensible majority would ask for help from the mainland. By then, it would be obvious that Shenzhen was in far better economic condition.

Click to expand...

By now, Shenzhen is already in far better economic condition and that's what makes the cockroaches the most angry.

Ideally, it would be the mainland teamed up with the sensible people in Hong Kong to combat the terrorists. Your scenario turns the relationship into the mainland versus all the people of Hong Kong. They will want a self-sufficient water management plan and they can do it; this won't hold anybody.

And recall that this conversation happened because you said you wouldn't send the PLA even if HK declared independence. Even then, you'd just make them "stinky." You seriously think they will crawl back and reverse their already declared independence for shower water?? I'd rather jump in the river with my boxers every day than capitulate for something like that.

I originally only asked about independence, not because it's realistic but to see where you drew the line and would send in the PLA. When you said never, it blew me away. A territory just declared independence and you have no military answer to stop it?? If the military does not guard national integrity, then what is it for?

If the political climate in HK is more tilted towards China, it would have been burden for China. Now that the political climate is anti-China, everything is in perfect place for China's interest. This is because HK's economic potential has already hit a ceiling. Especially in this decade, in which the economic crisis has shown that advance economies that has divorced from manufacturing sectors are less capable of withstanding and recovering from a economic crisis. HK is so deeply and completely reliant upon the services sector (especial financial services), its vulnerability is apparent. Now, if HK's political climate is tilting toward pro-China, it would have put the burden of recovering and growing HK's economy on China. This is difficult for China, because China does not want to break the 1C2S and actually involve itself in running HK's economy. Thus, every economic problems of HK will be blamed on China.

Now that the election has shown the HK people that they are choosing the anti-China path, they will have to make HK's economy boom on their own in order to obtain any meaningful victory for their political position. This is win-win for China. Because HK will either have booming economy, which benefits China as a whole; or it will suffer down turn, which will slowly destroy the legitimacy of the anti-China crowd's political position.

In comparison, what's really bad would be that HK is inevitably on the path of economic downturn while the political climate is mostly pro-China. This is the situation which means that China will have to waste a lot of resources to bail HK out (and fail), while the people are slowing losing confidence in China.

A interesting fact, of the 1000 rioters surrendered at PolyU only 50 of them are PolyU students.