Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis


supersnoop

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WASHINGTON, Sept 19 (Reuters) - White House Indo-Pacific coordinator Kurt Campbell said on Monday that President Joe Biden's remarks about defending Taiwan "speak for themselves," and that U.S. policy had not changed.

Biden said during a CBS "60 Minutes" interview broadcast on Sunday that U.S forces would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion, remarks China said sent the wrong signal to those seeking an independent Taiwan.

"I do not believe that it is appropriate to call the remarks that came from the White House today as walking back the president's remarks," Campbell told a forum in Washington.

"The president's remarks speak for themselves. I do think our policy has been consistent and is unchanged and will continue," he said.

They said this:
After the interview, a White House official said U.S. policy on Taiwan has not changed. Officially, the U.S. maintains "strategic ambiguity" on whether American forces would defend Taiwan, but the Taiwan Relations Act obligates the U.S. to help equip Taiwan to defend itself.

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Literally just going back and forth. Clear as mud
 

Sinnavuuty

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I agree with most of what you say. But if the ROC army calculates that the beach is indefensible because of a huge air power disadvantage and all their movements tracked, then there's no point moving the tanks a few km close to the beach head where they'll be sitting ducks like what that screenshot envisions. Better to camouflage them all in the urban areas right from the beginning. I suppose they're obligated to contest the beachhead in some form, but like I said that's a half-hearted attempt to repulse the landing.
The beach could be indefensible under these conditions imposed by the PLA to the detriment of the ROC army, but it would still be a contestable area of operations.

Its orientation of thought is that in the impossibility of producing an effective defense against the amphibious landings still on the coast, the ROC should completely leave the area of operations on the beach and hide in an urban environment without carrying out any contestation at the beach head, preventing its consolidation. It is not how it works. Whenever an opportunity arises for offensive operations against the consolidated or unconsolidated beachhead, the defender will have to act, because once the PLA action succeeds in consolidating the beachhead it may allow the triggering of subsequent operations, which, in a normal situation, they should encounter lesser resistance and achieve the strategic objective consolidated in their planning. This occurring could unbalance the conflict in favor of the PLA, regardless of the ROC hiding in urban areas.

Once the PLA fully conquers the beachhead on the coast without any challenge, the ROC is already a defeated army, even hiding in urban areas. To avoid this, even if the PLA manages to land on the beach, the ROC army must and will make attacks on this beachhead as a way of limiting the amphibious landing, making it expensive for the PLA to land on the coast, which can produce some results. depending on how they do it, they can even decrease the width of this beachhead using the initial upper fire to defeat the PLA trapped between the ROC army and the beach.

How is the ROC going to do this without air superiority?

Special camouflage techniques, deployment of inflatable baits as passive countermeasures, anti-aircraft artillery means, depending on the degree of air control by the PLA, the ROC could still use massive support from small drones (a remote but possible possibility) as countermeasures. active among other possibilities of action/reaction. The possibilities here are many, so it is difficult to deduce what will happen and how it might happen, there are many variables to consider, but the ROC has a wide range of tactics to achieve this, tactically working or not.

Let's imagine that now the ROC is no longer able to contest the beach. What comes next?

Elastic defense, offensive defensive technique, can be used normally by the echelon around brigade and lower units. In this technique, the penetration of the amphibious enemy in a selected area is allowed to destroy it through ambushes and vigorous counterattacks throughout the entire area of operations. This makes the most of the terrain and tactical surprise. The defensive position is occupied by troops dispersed in depth, eluding the enemy who initially encounters small pockets of resistance. Thus, the landing force element that enters there must be counterattacked with violence throughout your organization. Thus, elastic defense is characterized by the attrition and channeling of elements of the landing force to the interior of the advanced defense area, to then destroy it by fire in the area of engagement.

Personally I don't expect any of that. I left out how the PLA might act to avoid these scenarios.
 

Nobo

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I wish Patchwork were still here. Wanted to ask about ACE but never got the chance.
I have a few question regarding taiwan scenario. I'm not a military expert so i thought i would ask here.

How would the Utopian force transfer their "soldiers" here & sustain them? They are supposed to keep firing standing on carriers or ships? Because i don't think they will have the chance to land there.

Let us consider they do transfer all from Guam, Hawaii & nearby places plus those in Japan, South Korea, some fighting from their bases, though i don't know how, & some stashed up in their carriers & some landing, which gives the number of grand total well short of Half million( I added entire size of Japanese because anime army is so eager to fight there), which is 1/4 the size of PAP .

And how many carriers Utopia will exactly flow there? 10 carriers sounds cool ,but those are backbone/spine of their power projection. Getting whacked with missiles from top to bottom doesn't sound ideal for future power projection circus. I would love if they flow all of them over here actually.

I know math isn't exactly strong suit of them, but this feel a little more hilarious than usual.
 

Nilou

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Biscuits

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Please stop posting tweets from MOD ROC.
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t is misleading at best and will give you the wrong picture on the extent of the PLA's operations.
They purposely underplay actual PLA activity.
Not sure they underplay it as much as it is the only activity they can find.

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Biden might be threatening to invade but if they don't have the hard power to back that up, it's just an empty threat.

Without general mobilization, US will not stand a chance. And good luck making a draft in USA over invading Taiwan.

For now, Chinese people should get used to American probing attacks and verbal provocations, to some people, they will believe it to be unacceptable humiliation, this is also what America wants Chinese to believe, but the existence of an invader is not the fault of China, it is the fault of the invader themselves.

Truth is, the invader puts a large risk on the table as well. If China seals off the risk of US entering Taiwan permanently, especially if America missteps and launches an ill conceived assault, it will lead to their complete economic and political ruination.
 

siegecrossbow

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Not sure they underplay it as much as it is the only activity they can find.

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Biden might be threatening to invade but if they don't have the hard power to back that up, it's just an empty threat.

Without general mobilization, US will not stand a chance. And good luck making a draft in USA over invading Taiwan.

For now, Chinese people should get used to American probing attacks and verbal provocations, to some people, they will believe it to be unacceptable humiliation, this is also what America wants Chinese to believe, but the existence of an invader is not the fault of China, it is the fault of the invader themselves.

Truth is, the invader puts a large risk on the table as well. If China seals off the risk of US entering Taiwan permanently, especially if America missteps and launches an ill conceived assault, it will lead to their complete economic and political ruination.
In the short term we may very well see a Hong Kong redux.
 

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