Crisis in the Ukraine

SampanViking said:

That looked very much a RF Military column. Is there any firm evidence to support it being shot in Ukraine and not in the Russian Federation?

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An An-26 military cargo plane was shot down over the Ukrainian village of Davydo Myilske, in Luhansk region, near the Russian border, Ukrainian officials reported on 14 July.

It had been flying at an altitude of 6,500 metres, which means that it could not have been brought down by most man-portable air-defence systems (MANPADS) or small-arms. At least three members of the air crew are thought to have parachuted to safety. Until now, the separatist militants in eastern Ukraine had only been able to bring down aircraft at take-off or landing, and did not appear to have more sophisticated anti-aircraft capabilities.

The head of Ukraine's Security Service (Sluzhba bezpeky Ukrayiny: SBU), Valentyn Nalyvaichenko, stated on 15 July that the SBU had "indisputable" evidence of Russian involvement in the attack. Should this be the case, the most plausible explanation would be either that the An-26 was targeted from the air by a Russian jet firing an air-to-air missile from within Russian airspace, or else with a 96K6 Pantsyr-S1 self-propelled air-defence system. The Pantsyr can engage targets at a maximum altitude of 10,000 m, and has a range of 20,000 m, so the system would need have been deployed close to the Russian border, and the plane itself would need to have been flying close to the border for this system to have been successfully used by Russia.

Longer-range air defence systems such as the S-300 would are less likely to have been responsible, as they would have destroyed the entire airframe on impact, preventing the escape of crew members. It is also unlikely that the aircraft was shot down by the Ukrainians in a friendly fire accident, as the air defences in the area would also likely have destroyed the aircraft on impact.

It is also possible that a modern MANPADS such as the 9K38 Igla (SA-24) could have been used if they have found their way into separatist hands, although this is less likely as the aircraft's altitude would have put it at the edge of the missile's engagement range.

FORECAST
The shooting down of a Ukrainian aircraft by Russia would be consistent with the Kremlin's threat of "consequences" following the shelling of a Russian village on 13 July, and is one more indicator of the heightened escalation risk stemming from the anti-terrorist operation in the east. Russia is stepping up its activity in the border region more broadly: NATO claims to have observed an increase in Russian troops stationed there to 12,000. Meanwhile, a US Department of State fact sheet was issued on 14 July outlining evidence for Russian support for the separatists, while stopping short of confirming Russia's direct involvement. Should Russian involvement be proven in this latest incident, it will serve as additional impetus for the US to push for further sanctions on Russia, with sectoral sanctions then becoming a virtual certainty.

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Sputnik said:

Ukrainian vehicle registration plates + gas station prices in hryvna

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Blackstone said:

Janes Defense has a story on possible Russian aid of advance air defense systems for the rebels.

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However, defence analyst Charles Heyman, who edits a book called Armed Forces of the European Union, questioned the likelihood of the plane flying at high altitude.

He told the Associated Press news agency the missile was more likely to have been fired by rebels.

"I doubt the transport plane was flying at 6,500m," he said. "That doesn't make sense. The higher you fly, the more it costs, and the plane would have had to be pressurised. It was probably shot down using Sam-6 missiles owned by the rebels, which they have quite a few of."

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SampanViking said:

Both of which are likely to be found on the Russian near side of the Russian/Ukrainian border, given the constant flow of now over 100,000 refugees in Russia and the previous close/open border. We also have reports that Russia is reinforcing its borders and will retaliate in the event of further provocations. Tanks and SP Howitzers being the kind of kit you would expect to see deployed.

I wonder if the name of the petrol station can help? I can read Don and I can read Oil, but not the middle word. Anyone recognise the logo?

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SampanViking said:

I think a very big story is on the verge of breaking in the Donbass and a major military defeat for the Ukrainian forces...
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If true, then a force of some 3000 Ukrainian and other Pro Kiev troops are now surrounded and may need either to flee to Russia or surrender.

This followed Tass reports yesterday that Ukrainian forces North of Lugansk were pulling out of villages that they had captured on Sunday and heading back further North. It follows speculation that the armoured columns that attacked the City on Sunday had suffered serious damage, but of course this remains wholly unverified.

Other commentators have said that it was not so much battlefield damage that had forced the retirement, but systemic poor management and woefull lack of supplies and ammunitions, which had been fully depleted in the assault and not yet replenished.

Either way poor morale or supply does not appear to be an issue for the Self Defence Militia's who are now reporting that they are going on the offensive on multiple fronts.

Once again, this is largely unverified, but if true, events that will hit the headlines of the global media very soon.

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Blackstone said:

A short brigade is all Kiev sent to put down rebels? What's available from the rest of the Ukrainian armed forces for deployment?

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