I think a very big story is on the verge of breaking in the Donbass and a major military defeat for the Ukrainian forces.
I have been following for some time reports circulating on the pro Russian blogosphere and I am now starting to see elements of these stories appear in the mainstream Russian media.
Obviously, all of this if uncorroborated and many individual details, highly unreliable. That notwithstanding, certain core details are starting to emerge as credible accounts.
Earlier both Delft and I expressed our opinions about how incredibly risky and exposed was the push by Ukrainian forces to try and cut of the Novorossiya forces from the Russian border. It seems those views are well founded.
Over the last week, I have been following accounts of heavy actions and engagements along that entire flank, in an area that militia sources have dubbed the "Southern Cauldron".
Pro militia accounts have alleged that Ukrainian forces have been taken significant damage over the last few days and are on the brink of collapse. We know that Air Cover on the corridor is (or was) suspended on account of effective Anti Aircraft Coverage which brought down the An-26 and possibly an SU-25 yesterday.
Some accounts are just too wild to be credible and claim the infliction of casualty rates that would be more at home at the Somme. There have however been claims of Ukrainian forces being forced into Russia and surrendering, plus units of the Militia pushing all the way through to the border and cutting a large Ukrainian force off completely.
These elements are now starting to emerge in the main Russian media.
If true, then a force of some 3000 Ukrainian and other Pro Kiev troops are now surrounded and may need either to flee to Russia or surrender.
This followed Tass reports yesterday that Ukrainian forces North of Lugansk were pulling out of villages that they had captured on Sunday and heading back further North. It follows speculation that the armoured columns that attacked the City on Sunday had suffered serious damage, but of course this remains wholly unverified.
Other commentators have said that it was not so much battlefield damage that had forced the retirement, but systemic poor management and woefull lack of supplies and ammunitions, which had been fully depleted in the assault and not yet replenished.
Either way poor morale or supply does not appear to be an issue for the Self Defence Militia's who are now reporting that they are going on the offensive on multiple fronts.
Once again, this is largely unverified, but if true, events that will hit the headlines of the global media very soon.