Crisis in the Ukraine


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bd popeye

The Last Jedi
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This thread is about the Crisis in the Ukraine and nothing else.

Here's a link to the old thread.

http://www.sinodefenceforum.com/mem...dan-revolt-news-views-photos-videos-6796.html

When posting in this thread abide by the http://www.sinodefenceforum.com/announcements/sinodefence-forum-rules-behavior-6741.html

No country bashing.
No off topic conversation.
No foul language or it's disguised cousins.
Do not bait other members into arguments.
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Do not post anything about Nazi's or Neo-Nazi's


bd popeye super moderator
 

SampanViking

The Capitalist
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Thank you BD Popeye, a new thread to reflect the new situation in the Ukraine.

Lets start by stating the obvious, what we have is not civil unrest or an insurgency, what we have is a full blown Civil War and one that seems to be pulling in personnel (and maybe other actors) from beyond the Ukraine's national borders on both sides.

Another thing that is becoming apparent is that the Breakaway Self Defence Forces are rather more than simply a guerilla/light infantry militia. We have seen over the last couple of weeks that the Donbass militias are increasingly a highly mechanised force, wielding a substantial number of tanks, APC's/IFV's and Artillery, towed and propelled.

Following is a couple of videos released over the last couple of days.
One a repeat of a video in the old thread showing volunteers from South Ossetia and possibly Chechyna arrive in Lugansk, the other a Ruptley video showing reforcements heading to Lughansk to help counter yesterdays offensive

[video=youtube_share;3iu-dfeZHlM]http://youtu.be/3iu-dfeZHlM[/video]

[video=youtube_share;ifIwOu7SO-g]http://youtu.be/ifIwOu7SO-g[/video]

A big question is where is this equipment coming from. The official line from Kiev is to blame Russia for supplying (or allowing others to supply) from across the Russian border. Some of course like the South Ossetians will have brought their own equipment with them. The militia leaders cliam however that much has simply been taken from the Ukrainian armed forces, either by desertion or defection in the very early days (plenty of evidence of that at the time) or more recently on the battlefield; "one good bang on the side and they bail out and run for it rather then risk burning to death" as Strelkov put it in his press conference after breaking out of Slavyansk.
Is that level of capture credible?

I am not surprised if people were sceptical, but I think recent events in Iraq rather support the claim. Here we have seen the ISIS militia overrun powerful state army bases and capture large stocks of modern western supplied weapons and ammunitions. Further just in the last few days, many members of been incredulous regarding an ISIS attack on Iraq government armoured column, that is a text book illustration of Strelkovs claims.

The parallels between the two conflicts are actually stunning, just as ISIS is led by grizzled veterans of decades of Jihad and are humiliating a green national Iraqi army, the Donbass Self Defence Militia is also composed of veterans of Russia's own national and ethnic struggles, some going back to Afghanistan with the Red Army and incorporating more recently Chechnya, Transdinestra and the enclaves of Georgia. Many will be not only used to this style of warfare, but of waging it from this position of disadvantage. The campaigns in Transdinestra and the Georgian enclaves have of course been successful and they stand as independent regions to this day.

Overall I think that the claims by Strelkov about taking large amounts of Ukrainian army armour are credible and that this particular level of attrition has been significantly higher than Kiev has been prepared to admit.

The attention on the ground seems to have shifted to the city of Lughansk, the regional capital of the region of the same name.
Yesterday we understand that the Ukrainian army launched a major armoured assault against the city, using two attack columns of up to seventy MBT's backed by Airstrikes and Artillery. Whether this was just an aggressive reconnaissance, a major probe or simply an attempt to relieve the remains of the Special Airborne Troops holding out at Lugansk Airport, is still unclear with a lot of claims and counter claims from both sides.
I think it is however fair to say that the positional situation of the ground has not changed significantly since yesterday.
 
A big question is where is this equipment coming from. The official line from Kiev is to blame Russia for supplying (or allowing others to supply) from across the Russian border. Some of course like the South Ossetians will have brought their own equipment with them. The militia leaders cliam however that much has simply been taken from the Ukrainian armed forces, either by desertion or defection in the very early days (plenty of evidence of that at the time) or more recently on the battlefield; "one good bang on the side and they bail out and run for it rather then risk burning to death" as Strelkov put it in his press conference after breaking out of Slavyansk.
Is that level of capture credible?
I'm going to take that as a non-rhetorical question. It is definitely credible, as is supply by the Russians or other allies, as this is a civil war in a region previously in a common military alliance so everyone has a large inventory of the same weapons.

But it is clear the pro-Russian forces are genuinely desperate for equipment as there are multiple A-Team style armored trucks and almost WW2 heritage artillery being deployed in the videos. Apparently there aren't enough real modern weapons for the pro-Russians to not bother with them, and I doubt any outside party bothered to supply those either.

If Russia is supplying the eastern Ukrainians with anything I would bet that it is 1) everyday supplies to prevent the civilian population's support from crumbling due to difficulties with everyday life, and 2) military equipment to specifically balance out Kiev's forces' advantage of having an air force, namely MANPADs and AA munitions, that are at the same time plausibly deniable and "defensive-only" enough to not warrant escalation of the situation (additional sanctions) with regards to Russia on this issue alone.
 

delft

Brigadier
Just a remark on the name of this thread: I wouldn't call a situation lasting many months a crisis. I would reserve that name for something lasting days or at most a few weeks.
 

delft

Brigadier
Ukraine says that an AN-26 aircraft was shot down near its Eastern border while flying at 6500 meter:
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14 July 2014 Last updated at 19:20 GMT
Ukraine military plane shot down as fighting rages


A Ukrainian military transport aircraft has been shot down in the east, amid fighting with pro-Russian separatist rebels, Ukrainian officials say.

They say the An-26 plane was hit at an altitude of 6,500m (21,325ft).

The plane was targeted with "a more powerful missile" than a shoulder-carried missile, "probably fired" from Russia. The crew survived, reports say.

Russia has made no comment. Separately, Nato reported a Russian troop build-up near the Ukraine border.

A Nato official confirmed to the BBC that the alliance had observed a significant increase of Russian troops, bringing their number to up to 12,000.

Russia denies supporting and arming the separatists, and has invited officials from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) to monitor its border with Ukraine.

Direct talks plea

A statement on Ukraine President Petro Poroshenko's website said the An-26 was taking part in the "anti-terror operation" in the region.

Ukrainian Defence Minister Valeriy Heletei said a search-and-rescue operation was under way to locate missing crew members.

Andriy Lysenko, a spokesman for Ukraine's security and defence council, was later quoted by Ukrainian media as saying that eight people had been on board the plane.


In a Facebook message, some of those taking part in Ukraine's "anti-terror operation" said they knew "about the fate of two of the crew" and were checking information about the others.

Rebel forces - who earlier said they had targeted the aircraft in the Luhansk region - claimed they had captured the crew and were questioning them in the town of Krasnodon, reports in Russian media say.

Last month, the rebels shot down a Ukrainian Il-76 military transport plane as it was about to land at Luhansk airport, killing all 49 soldiers and crew on board.

Earlier on Monday, the Ukrainian air force said it had delivered "five powerful air strikes" in the region in an effort to end the blockade of the strategic airport in the rebel-held city.

Ukraine's military later said the airport had been "unblocked" and the army had retaken several villages.

Some air strikes hit the city on Monday, a resident of Luhansk told the BBC on Monday.

Meanwhile, the rebels claimed they had destroyed a Ukrainian armed convoy near the airport.

Fighting in the area has intensified since a rebel rocket attack near the Russian border on Friday, in which at least 19 government soldiers were killed.

President Poroshenko has vowed retaliation for that attack. On Monday, he also said Russian military officers were fighting alongside the separatists - a claim denied by Russia.

Tensions rose further over the weekend when Russia accused Ukrainian forces of shelling across the border, killing one person and wounding two others.

At least 15 civilians were killed in Luhansk and the neighbouring Donetsk region on Sunday, reports say.

Germany and Russia have urged direct talks between Kiev and the rebels.

And the UK and US have renewed calls for Russia to de-escalate the situation in eastern Ukraine.

Prime Minister David Cameron and President Barack Obama stressed the need for Moscow to take further steps towards peace or face further sanctions.

Separatist rebels have been fighting the government in Kiev since declaring independence in Luhansk and the neighbouring region of Donetsk in April.

The government began an "anti-terrorist operation" in April to crush the rebellion in the eastern regions.

More than 1,000 civilians and combatants are believed to have died in the fighting, which followed Russia's annexation of Crimea in March.
If it was hit by a more powerful missile than a shoulder launched one I'm surprised the crew survived.
I notice a difference between US and UK on one side and Germany and Russia on the other.
 

SampanViking

The Capitalist
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Ukraine says that an AN-26 aircraft was shot down near its Eastern border while flying at 6500 meter:
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If it was hit by a more powerful missile than a shoulder launched one I'm surprised the crew survived.
I notice a difference between US and UK on one side and Germany and Russia on the other.
Kiev is trying to claim that Russia brought it down from their side of the border, but it does not seem to be a claim with much traction, so far anyway.

I also posted in the old thread; a couple of weeks ago that the DPR self defence forces had reported over running a Ukrainian Air Defence Base and captured some BUK Sam systems. These would be more than sufficient for the job.
 

Sputnik

New Member
probably reinforcement for Donetsk
[video=youtube;5yKqtW6ur2A]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5yKqtW6ur2A[/video]
 

Janiz

Junior Member
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I don't know if anyone posted it before? I'm not taking sides here putting this link here but rather a food for thought on 'how it's done' in modern, small world.
 
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