Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)


Rettam Stacf

Junior Member
Registered Member
The data is more complicated. In both Wuhan and Beijing (which I use as a point of comparison) the first quarters always have the lowest number of cremations, like 1/4 to 1/3 of the fourth quarters. The second quarter will have double that, and third quarter about triple, then comes the fourth quarter with by far the highest number. I don't understand why because the first quarters are almost always the coldest and I expect more people to die in winter than in summer. It just cannot be the case that four times as many die in the last quarters than the first.

Here's the numbers of cremations in Wuhan and Beijing in 2019

WuhanBeijing
1st Quarter
14700​
27708​
2nd Quarter
29625​
51885​
3rd Quarter
42151​
75175​
4th Quarter
56007​
101181​

I'm at a complete loss at why the number of cremations progress through the year like this. Can anyone explain? It will be much appreciated.
Are these numbers cumulative ? The pattern fits into 14K and 25K average per quarter for Wuhan and Beijing, respectively. The 1st quarter should be higher because of the cold weather (flu season) and majority of the residences in China, even in big cities, are not well heated.

Just a somewhat related thought. By middle of next week when the number of fatalities in the US due to coronavirus exceeds that of China, every US news media will jump into this Wuhan cremation story with full intensity.
 

vesicles

Colonel
Now this is interesting
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Stephen Chen in Beijing |
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Published: 4:30pm, 29 Mar, 2020

The
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that causes Covid-19 might have been quietly spreading among humans for years or even decades before the sudden outbreak that sparked a global health crisis, according to an investigation by some of the world’s top virus hunters.

Researchers from the
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, Britain and Australia looked at piles of data released by scientists around the world for clues about the virus’ evolutionary past, and found it might have made the jump from animal to humans long before the first detection in the central China city of Wuhan.
This is an interesting analysis. The direct link to the article is here:

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FYI, the authors are very credible. Scripps Institute is one of the top biological/medical research institutes in the US and in the world.

The lead author has an impressive track record and seems to publish in all the top tier journals...
 

OppositeDay

Junior Member
Registered Member
Are these numbers cumulative ? The pattern fits into 14K and 25K average per quarter for Wuhan and Beijing, respectively. The 1st quarter should be higher because of the cold weather (flu season) and majority of the residences in China, even in big cities, are not well heated.

Just a somewhat related thought. By middle of next week when the number of fatalities in the US due to coronavirus exceeds that of China, every US news media will jump into this Wuhan cremation story with full intensity.
Yes I think you're quite right. I've checked the figures for marriages and divorces, they display the same pattern. So the numbers must be cumulative. Shame on Bloomberg though, I expect them as a business outlet to have some basic understanding of how statistics reporting works in China instead of treating a cumulative figure as quarterly. They have absolutely no excuse.
 

AndrewS

Captain
Registered Member
Yes I think you're quite right. I've checked the figures for marriages and divorces, they display the same pattern. So the numbers must be cumulative. Shame on Bloomberg though, I expect them as a business outlet to have some basic understanding of how statistics reporting works in China instead of treating a cumulative figure as quarterly. They have absolutely no excuse.
Yes, cumulative year-to-date figures are the only way the death, marriage and divorce numbers make any sense.

So if we rerun the numbers, there should be approximately 5000 cremations every month in Wuhan.

I think we have an example of Bloomberg re-regurgitating whatever Caixin wrote, without any critical analysis or fact-checking.
 

AndrewS

Captain
Registered Member
I don't know if this has been posted before, but I will posted it here.

Is Maatje Benassi (USA) Covid-19 patient 0 ?
In my opinion, it's almost certainly fake news, so there's no need to repeat this.

But such a narrative will be effective on a significant percentage of the global population, particularly in China.

After all, China-US relations have almost broken down completely in the past 3 years.
 

t2contra

Major
Yes I think you're quite right. I've checked the figures for marriages and divorces, they display the same pattern. So the numbers must be cumulative. Shame on Bloomberg though, I expect them as a business outlet to have some basic understanding of how statistics reporting works in China instead of treating a cumulative figure as quarterly. They have absolutely no excuse.
Bloomberg is just like WashingtonPost or NYTimes when it comes to China, fundamentally anti-China, but because it is a business and finance portal, readers are easily misled. Fake news interspersed with facts easily fool educated people.
 

Chish

Junior Member
Registered Member
I'm watching CNN where they're talking about Singapore being a model for the US on how to handle the coronavirus. What happened to South Korea? Did the US try it and did not accomplish "flattening the curve?" Earlier in the week I saw the WHO official, Bruce Alywood, who was in China for two weeks at near the height of the outbreak there being interviewed on TV. He said before he went to China, he had prejudices of what it's like there meaning all the stereotypes of chaos and political dissension. But instead what he saw was a country from top officials down to civilians doing what they thought was their duty working together to overcome the coronavirus. He thought the translator assigned to the group he was a part of was from Wuhan but she told him her home was over a thousand kilometers away where her kids are that she hasn't seen in over a month and she came because she thought it was her obligation to help. He said what countries like China and South Korea and others in Asia had in common was culture not political ideology in how they handled the coronavirus. The US thinks it has more in common with South Korea yet no flattening of the curve. And now they're looking towards Singapore where it was accused of being draconian for caning people. And where did caning come from...?
Among the countries that achieved the most success in controlling the spread and deaths from this virus, China, South Korea, Singapore, New Zealand and maybe Germany, the only common factor is the COMPETENCE of the government. Not cultural, race, religion or political system.
 

AndrewS

Captain
Registered Member
Bloomberg is just like WashingtonPost or NYTimes when it comes to China, fundamentally anti-China, but because it is a business and finance portal, readers are easily misled. Fake news interspersed with facts easily fool educated people.
I've also noticed a pronounced anti-government ideological streak with US outlets like Bloomberg or WSJ, when compared to the Nikkei (Japan) or Financial Times (London).

This is what the editorial board of the FT published today:

China should stand up to revive global demand

Beijing could show leadership by running current account deficits

THE EDITORIAL BOARD

The economic fallout from the pandemic is starting to feel like 2008 reprised. Share prices have slumped. The global economy is lurching toward recession and unemployment is swelling. Once again, policymakers, investors and others are asking a crucial question: can China revive the world’s economy?

China — where the coronavirus outbreak originated — appears on track to stage the first recovery among leading economies. Key metrics such as real estate sold, coal used in power stations and traffic congestion are all on the increase, suggesting at least a measured recuperation in demand. But the unpalatable reality is that China — and the world — find themselves in very different positions today than they did in 2008. Beijing then led the world’s return to growth by pushing out a massive $590bn stimulus package that was equivalent to 13 per cent of its 2008 GDP. By contrast, the US and Japan pumped a comparatively modest $152bn and $100bn into their larger domestic markets.

Those hoping for a repeat performance may well be disappointed. The simple truth is that China has run up so much debt in the credit-fuelled 12 years since the financial crisis that it can ill-afford another “big bazooka”. Nor does it appear as willing as it was in 2008 to identify the world’s problems as its own. Total bank assets in China have risen by 4.5 times since 2008 to $41.8tn at the end of 2019 — equivalent to about half of global GDP, according to the Rhodium Group, a consultancy. By contrast, Chinese GDP has increased by three times over the same period — meaning that much of China’s stellar decade of growth has been borrowed rather than bought.

Beijing has made it a policy priority to bring down credit growth. Thus, if Xi Jinping, China’s president, was now to decree a large credit-fuelled stimulus it would amount to tearing up a fundamental principle in the economic playbook. Statements from other officials also seem to indicate little appetite for a massive stimulus. Li Keqiang, premier, was quoted by the official media in March as saying: “variations in economic growth do not matter that much, as long as employment stabilises this year”.

Yet China should recognise that its fate is linked to that of the world. No matter how parlous its relationship with the US has become and regardless of how fiercely it resents being blamed for the initial viral outbreak, self-interest demands Beijing prepares for a key role in the world’s economic revival. Perhaps the pledges of “co-operation” made in a recent phone call between Mr Xi and Donald Trump, the US president, represent a positive sign.

If a credit bazooka is out of the question, other levers could be pulled. Beijing could budget for a much larger fiscal deficit this year, allowing it to extend tax cuts throughout the economy. It could instruct banks to hold off on calling in debts and discourage state-owned enterprises from laying off workers. It could also speed up infrastructure projects and boost housing construction, financed through bond issuance by local governments.

Such measures would be aimed primarily at shoring up domestic constituencies but they will be of limited benefit to global demand. If China wants to show real leadership as it did after 2008, it should ramp up imports while keeping the renminbi steady against the US dollar. The hefty current account deficits that should result would be proof of its contribution to the international community — and assist in rehabilitating its reputation after the early mis-steps in the spread of the virus in Wuhan.


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