Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)


AndrewS

Captain
Registered Member
I included the blaze because of the pictures in the article. Pics like this one.

Look at the pictures.

The second picture shows unopened cardboard cartons in the background, still sealed with the plastic tape.
There are some funeral urns placed on top, amidst packaging materials.

In the foreground, the workers are stacking boxes high, and making no effort to put a name or identifier

The conclusion is that this is a goods receiving area for new boxes which have just arrived.

Given that Wuhan has been sealed off for 2 months, we could expect a large restock anyway.
And everyone in China (in every industry and household) is stocking up on supplies now, just in case.
 

AndrewS

Captain
Registered Member
@Pika Quotes are from your Bloomberg source:

"There were 56,007 cremations in Wuhan in the fourth quarter of 2019, according to
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from the city’s civil affairs agency. The number of cremations was 1,583 higher than those in the fourth quarter of 2018 and 2,231 higher than the fourth quarter of 2017."
@Pika

Your logic makes no sense.

The Caixin figures imply that there would normally be 19,000 cremations in Wuhan every month.
It's been roughly 2 months + 1 week since the Wuhan lockdown. That means a backlog of approximately 43,000 funeral urns to be collected.

Add in the official Coronavirus deaths, then this roughly matches the 45,500 figure of funeral urns to be distributed in your source below.

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OppositeDay

Junior Member
Registered Member
@Pika

Your logic makes no sense.

The Caixin figures imply that there would normally be 19,000 cremations in Wuhan every month.
It's been roughly 2 months + 1 week since the Wuhan lockdown. That means a backlog of approximately 43,000 funeral urns to be collected.

Add in the official Coronavirus deaths, then this roughly matches the 45,500 figure of funeral urns to be distributed in your source below.

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The data is more complicated. In both Wuhan and Beijing (which I use as a point of comparison) the first quarters always have the lowest number of cremations, like 1/4 to 1/3 of the fourth quarters. The second quarter will have double that, and third quarter about triple, then comes the fourth quarter with by far the highest number. I don't understand why because the first quarters are almost always the coldest and I expect more people to die in winter than in summer. It just cannot be the case that four times as many die in the last quarters than the first.

Here's the numbers of cremations in Wuhan and Beijing in 2019

WuhanBeijing
1st Quarter
14700​
27708​
2nd Quarter
29625​
51885​
3rd Quarter
42151​
75175​
4th Quarter
56007​
101181​

I'm at a complete loss at why the number of cremations progress through the year like this. Can anyone explain? It will be much appreciated.
 

plawolf

Brigadier
The data is more complicated. In both Wuhan and Beijing (which I use as a point of comparison) the first quarters always have the lowest number of cremations, like 1/4 to 1/3 of the fourth quarters. The second quarter will have double that, and third quarter about triple, then comes the fourth quarter with by far the highest number. I don't understand why because the first quarters are almost always the coldest and I expect more people to die in winter than in summer. It just cannot be the case that four times as many die in the last quarters than the first.

Here's the numbers of cremations in Wuhan and Beijing in 2019

WuhanBeijing
1st Quarter
14700​
27708​
2nd Quarter
29625​
51885​
3rd Quarter
42151​
75175​
4th Quarter
56007​
101181​

I'm at a complete loss at why the number of cremations progress through the year like this. Can anyone explain? It will be much appreciated.
Are they reporting in financial quarters? Q4 ends 31MAR, so Financial Q1 would be April to end of June, then July to Sep for Q2, Oct to Dec for Q3, and Jan to Mar for Q4, which would line up to expected seasonal variations in mortality.
 

OppositeDay

Junior Member
Registered Member
Are they reporting in financial quarters? Q4 ends 31MAR, so Financial Q1 would be April to end of June, then July to Sep for Q2, Oct to Dec for Q3, and Jan to Mar for Q4, which would line up to expected seasonal variations in mortality.
No Chinese government doesn't use special financial quarters. Also the fourth quarter data always becomes available in January, so it has to be Oct-Dec.
 
Last edited:

Tam

Major
Registered Member
The US tried to build a new fleet of modern, easier to use, cheaper, mobile ventilators, years ago in response for a massive shortage of ventilators. The demand to deal with the hypothetical influenza called for over 70,000 ventilators. It failed.

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I suspect that carmakers cannot simply go around turning automobile manufacturing assembly lines into making ventilators. Many components for making ventilators are not made by automobile parts makers. Its going to come down to the obvious --- that many of these parts used to make ventilators happen to come from guess the obvious...Chyynaa. All these little component things that are also currently being tariffed by Trump.

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solarz

Brigadier
I always knew China was under-reporting their COVID-19 numbers. It seems they really under reported with 3000+ deaths. 45,000 cremated remains to handed back to families in Wuhan alone. Of course not all was due to the virus, but a large amount probably was.
Wuhan in Q4 2019 had over 50k cremations. That's before the COVID 19 outbreak and over 3 months.

The 45k number you cite is a vague estimation using data from just one funeral parlor and extrapolating to other 6 parlors. It is quite within the expected range for the two months of quarantine.

The long lines are simply due to the fact that no one has been able to pick up the urns for over two months due to quarantine.
 

Hendrik_2000

Brigadier
Now this is interesting
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Stephen Chen in Beijing |
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Published: 4:30pm, 29 Mar, 2020

The
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that causes Covid-19 might have been quietly spreading among humans for years or even decades before the sudden outbreak that sparked a global health crisis, according to an investigation by some of the world’s top virus hunters.

Researchers from the
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, Britain and Australia looked at piles of data released by scientists around the world for clues about the virus’ evolutionary past, and found it might have made the jump from animal to humans long before the first detection in the central China city of Wuhan.
 

solarz

Brigadier
The data is more complicated. In both Wuhan and Beijing (which I use as a point of comparison) the first quarters always have the lowest number of cremations, like 1/4 to 1/3 of the fourth quarters. The second quarter will have double that, and third quarter about triple, then comes the fourth quarter with by far the highest number. I don't understand why because the first quarters are almost always the coldest and I expect more people to die in winter than in summer. It just cannot be the case that four times as many die in the last quarters than the first.

Here's the numbers of cremations in Wuhan and Beijing in 2019

WuhanBeijing
1st Quarter
14700​
27708​
2nd Quarter
29625​
51885​
3rd Quarter
42151​
75175​
4th Quarter
56007​
101181​

I'm at a complete loss at why the number of cremations progress through the year like this. Can anyone explain? It will be much appreciated.
Whatever the reason, we know that up to 56k cremations over 3 months is with the normal variation range, so an estimate of 45k cremations over 2 months is no evidence of any deliberate underreporting.
 

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