Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)


ok so its ~20 million x 0.7% = 140K annually. Roughly 12K per month.

so during lockdown, there should 24K deaths due to other non-COVID 19 reasons.

the remaining 21K+ deaths is extra in Wuhan then during the lockdown. Still significantly larger number than the 3K+ official numbers.
This entire equation and line of thought does not work because it is assuming an equal number of deaths to occur (from non-COVID-19) in Wuhan operating as a normal society and in a Wuhan that operates basically without hospitals because COVID-19 has taken up more than the entire hospital capacity of the city. The hospital's main function is to save lives so how can the mortality rate of the population be the same with or without hospitals?

The correct line of thought would be total death toll in the period combating COVID-19 minus normal death toll in equivalent period (inflated by a couple percentage points due to aging population) minus all deaths from non-COVID-19 causes resultant from lack of healthcare available (roughly) equals deaths caused by COVID-19. That "all deaths from non-COVID-19 causes resultant from lack of healthcare available" basically equals all the lives that hospital care saves in such a period under normal (non-COVID-19) times (although reduced by a wane in traffic/work-related accidents and injuries since both work and travel are severely reduced by lockdown).
 
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Intrepid

Captain
So basically, like every other country, China cannot be sure of the exact number reported because of the complexities and chaos of the situation. And those who died from other morbidities due to hospitals being overwhelmed by COVID-19 patients obviously cannot be counted in the COVID-19 death toll. Every country has more dead than the official count [...] There's no evidence here of anything. What is your point?
This is what it looks like. And I don't understand what @Pika wanted to tell us. The health system was overwhelmed in all countries, of course also in China. But China and a few other countries have done a damn good job compared to other countries.

The states that put their economic life above health and have long underestimated the virus pay the highest price. Dangers await those who do not respond to life [Mikhail Gorbachev].
 

Chish

Junior Member
Registered Member
The West's relationship with China will change after this. It will be in China's interest to at least be forthcoming and honest, but I don't expect that from the govt.
The West has never really trusted info from China but most still maintains good relation. What makes you think that the West will change their relationship because of their suspicion of China coronavirus dead numbers?
 

Intrepid

Captain
The relationships between people are getting better and better. And there are already very good relations between China and other countries. You can see it from the spread of the virus, where it first appeared in other countries.

Some governments' relationships with one another have not improved. But that does not prevent people from becoming increasingly related to one another worldwide. As we do here in the forum!
 

supersnoop

Junior Member
Registered Member
I anticipated this reaction. Go ahead and dismiss everything you disagree with as conspiracies.

Edit: I will add this. The West's relationship with China will change after this. It will be in China's interest to at least be forthcoming and honest, but I don't expect that from the govt. Their disinformation campaign will sour more views at the West.
Don’t think it is wrong for you to be skeptical, but you do need to be objective.

Just logically thinking, if 45,000 people died in one month, it would be a near impossible thing to hide. There would be bodies piling up like how medical waste was piling up because there probably wouldn’t be enough cremation capacity (it’s happening in Italy already).

To another point, Chinese government’s response has not been replicated elsewhere. Once human to human transmission was confirmed and the hospitals were overwhelmed, they cut public transport and started airlifting personnel and equipment non-stop for a week.

It would be like seeing all the subways and trains in NYC stopped right now and dozens of C-17 and C-5’s flying into JFK. This is not happening at all. As of now, there is one medical group being deployed (~600 staff) And federal government is arguing publicly with the state government.

This is not to say who is right or wrong, but these are the facts as they stand and are known to be true.

Also adding one more point. Right now there is so little we know about the virus. The death rates in each country are varying wildly. Is Germany hiding something? Deaths seem absurdly low. Are they just lucky? US now has the most cases by far, will they end up with more deaths than Italy? It’s not clear either.
 
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AssassinsMace

Brigadier
I'm watching CNN where they're talking about Singapore being a model for the US on how to handle the coronavirus. What happened to South Korea? Did the US try it and did not accomplish "flattening the curve?" Earlier in the week I saw the WHO official, Bruce Alywood, who was in China for two weeks at near the height of the outbreak there being interviewed on TV. He said before he went to China, he had prejudices of what it's like there meaning all the stereotypes of chaos and political dissension. But instead what he saw was a country from top officials down to civilians doing what they thought was their duty working together to overcome the coronavirus. He thought the translator assigned to the group he was a part of was from Wuhan but she told him her home was over a thousand kilometers away where her kids are that she hasn't seen in over a month and she came because she thought it was her obligation to help. He said what countries like China and South Korea and others in Asia had in common was culture not political ideology in how they handled the coronavirus. The US thinks it has more in common with South Korea yet no flattening of the curve. And now they're looking towards Singapore where it was accused of being draconian for caning people. And where did caning come from...?
 

plawolf

Brigadier
ok so its ~20 million x 0.7% = 140K annually. Roughly 12K per month.

so during lockdown, there should 24K deaths due to other non-COVID 19 reasons.

the remaining 21K+ deaths is extra in Wuhan then during the lockdown. Still significantly larger number than the 3K+ official numbers.
Even the most basic of public health knowledge would tell you that natural deaths do not occur at equal rates throughout the year. There is a significant (as in around 50%) increase in natural mortality rates during the winter months as comparing to the summer months, with death rates gradually increasing and deceasing during autumn and spring respectively.

Figure 3A has a very nice downloadable data table for their graphs. See what happens if you take the same daily deaths from the period Wuhan was in lockdown until now and pro rated them as a flat annual average to calculate annual death rate and then compare against the actual.

No conspiracy needed when basic fundamental mistakes in methodology are being made.

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nugroho

Junior Member
I always knew China was under-reporting their COVID-19 numbers. It seems they really under reported with 3000+ deaths. 45,000 cremated remains to handed back to families in Wuhan alone. Of course not all was due to the virus, but a large amount probably was.

Many here will dismiss this as another western propaganda, looking to damage China's image, but the more the govt. continues to lie, they more they damage their own credibility.

With all the tens of thousands cremation done alone in Wuhan alone we may never know the virus true toll on China.

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the sentence from which the 45000 number derived is typically western propaganda.
here it is :
Another "funeral hall" in Wuchang (another Wuhan neighborhood) has announced that family members can come to collect the urns with ashes from 23 March. The Funeral Parlor plans to distribute 500 per day, up to Qingming. This means around 6500 urns throughout this period.

Wuhan has seven Funeral Parlors: if it is calculated that each of them will distribute urns at the same rate as the one in Wuchang, it adds up to an estimated 45,500 urns for the city of Wuhan alone.

The word "if " is not basic on real counting, but became a " must true fact that you can't deny "
I give you another fake deduction
IF New york state has 37258 patient, and USA has 50 states, then total usa amount is 50 x 37258 = 1862900 , wrong . isn't it?
 
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Tam

Major
Registered Member
600 hundred million masks headed from China for France --- is that number correct?

600 millions de masques : l’objectif du « pont aérien » en préparation entre la Chine et la France — via
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Translated from French by Google
600 million masks: the objective of the “airlift” in preparation between China and France - via
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AndrewS

Captain
Registered Member
600 hundred million masks headed from China for France --- is that number correct?

600 millions de masques : l’objectif du « pont aérien » en préparation entre la Chine et la France — via
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Translated from French by Google
600 million masks: the objective of the “airlift” in preparation between China and France - via
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Yes. 600million face masks is like 5 days of production in China.
And the coronavirus has been contained in China for the time being, so there is that spare capacity now.

France has ordered over 1 billion face masks, most from China: minister

PARIS, March 28 (Reuters) - France has ordered more than one billion face masks, the vast majority from China, the country’s health minister said on Saturday, as the government scrambles to build up its supplies with the coronavirus outbreak showing no sign of easing.

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