Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)


plawolf

Brigadier
@plawolf
I only see one way out for India,

India ought to reach out to one particular country for vaccines
CHINA.

If India approves Chinese vaccines and tries to do the test-track-quarantine like China then there is hope.
It’s too late for any of that. China’s current model is perfectly suited to stamping out any new infection clusters as soon as the first case is identified so it cannot spread. It will not work with the kind of saturated and wild spread already taking place in India.

Ideally you will need a national lock down, but India is so manifestly unprepared for that hungry will probably kill as many as the virus would have if it they tried.

At this point, they should be focusing on salvaging what little they can o try to minimise the damage. But the Indian government is still in deep denial, and by the time they come out of that it will be too late even for that.
 

Temstar

Senior Member
Registered Member
@plawolf
I only see one way out for India,

India ought to reach out to one particular country for vaccines
CHINA.

If India approves Chinese vaccines and tries to do the test-track-quarantine like China then there is hope.
Not even China can vaccinate at the rate necessary to put out this fire, it will have to burn itself out.

That said inactivated virus vaccine has a better chance than rest (particularly mRNA vaccine) at providing some protecting against mutated virus since it uses the whole inactivated virus to train the immune system, so the immune system may generate antibodies against proteins not affected by mutation. mRNA vaccines are highly specific on the spike protein they target. They're very effective if their target matches the antigen exactly but perform poorly against mutations relative to other vaccines.
 

Skye_ZTZ_113

Junior Member
Registered Member
The more and more I hear about what's going on there, the more I think we're looking at a 21 years economic setback, like Modi's own warning. It may sound alarmist but I think we'll see 20M dead Indians before this thing ends in India and that'll be from external and independent local estimates. Official figures might tally only a million or so but the damage and losses will be clear to anyone on the ground. They have so many factors that worsen a contagion that it boggles the mind. You could take a box of the stuff the Western media said about China during the Wuhan epidemic and throw it at India, finding out that most of it suddenly sticks. Corruption preventing aid movements, bureaucracy slowing down actions, silencing of actual whistleblowers and Soviet-style denials of any problems to name but a few. India will cease to be relevant even as a regional power by the time it's over. And it can happen all over again as yet another mutation striking, perhaps the generally vaccine resistant/evasive strain that I've feared is coming. With India's extreme population density, population and just enough connectivity, we might see it rotating from place A -> B -> C -> A and so on. Basically the nightmare scenario that had China's enemies rolling in glee last year. I truly pity the people on the ground even now.
 

Nutrient

Junior Member
Registered Member
BJP no longer have parliamentary majority?

I'm no expert on Indian politics, but the state of West Bengal has only 42 seats in the Lok Sabha (out of 543). The BJP's 301 seats is enough for a majority; I don't understand why it needs to be in the National Democratic Alliance with other parties.

Though the BJP will continue to rule the country, I think this defeat is still significant, for three reasons.

(1) It halts the seemingly overwhelming momentum of the BJP. This may be good for China, as a country ruled solely by the violent Jai Hinds will prove quite unstable; such a country would be more likely to need an external distraction, like a war. If India attacks Pakistan, what will China do?

(2) It may be proof that the coronavirus is finally having an impact on Indian politics. And that shifting blame to China isn't working either. Maybe Modi will finally start addressing the coronavirus nightmare seriously.

(3) West Bengal could break from Modi and start buying vaccines from China. If the state begins to do better than the rest the country, perhaps the Indian elites, mostly uncaring, will begin to feel the desperation of the public.

I certainly don't want India's coronavirus strains to infect China and the rest of the world. Hence a jolt to get Modi moving against the pandemic will be good.
 

supersnoop

Junior Member
Registered Member
I saw this in the news today, and I'm not sure what to make of it

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Canada will take its share of vaccine doses from the internationally funded COVAX initiative and will not give any doses to other countries until all Canadians are vaccinated, said Procurement Minister Anita Anand.

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If the Indian government had NOT exported these vaccines, would people see this as selfish? Would anyone notice? I wonder if any Canadians feel like Canada has stabbed India in the back this way. Does India feel stabbed in the back?
 

taxiya

Colonel
Registered Member
I saw this in the news today, and I'm not sure what to make of it

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I am reminded of this story
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His local supporters did this
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If the Indian government had NOT exported these vaccines, would people see this as selfish? Would anyone notice? I wonder if any Canadians feel like Canada has stabbed India in the back this way. Does India feel stabbed in the back?
Few lessons:
  • Once you give your life jacket to a drowning man, never expect to get it back when you are drowning.
  • Don't blame anybody selfish when people's own life are in danger.
  • There is no selfishness nor selflessness in self preservation.
My opinions:
  • It is absurd to quote "international human rights law that clearly outlines everybody has a right to health" to demand countries to sacrifice their own population. Besides "international law" is not the same thing as national law, it is agreement or a promise, nothing more than that.
  • Canadians made a natural choice. Nobody is Jesus.
  • Indians may very likely feel stabbed in the back. But the fault lies on their own government of pretension of a great power ignoring the need of its own population's well-being.
 

solarz

Brigadier
I saw this in the news today, and I'm not sure what to make of it

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Which links to this story
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I am reminded of this story
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His local supporters did this
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If the Indian government had NOT exported these vaccines, would people see this as selfish? Would anyone notice? I wonder if any Canadians feel like Canada has stabbed India in the back this way. Does India feel stabbed in the back?

The Canadian policy is absurd. It would rather steal vaccines from Indians who desperately need it than to purchase vaccines from China.
 

Xsizor

Senior Member
Registered Member
Not affecting your conclusion, but I don't think India is able to emulate Vietnam. Although Vietnam is less developed, but it is a communist state that the government has tremendous capability of social mobilization similar to China.
But India is socialist. Similar to Vietnam in overall development. India can also "socially mobilize". How do they conduct elections if otherwise.
 

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