Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)


plawolf

Brigadier
Meanwhile...

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Can’t decide if it’s someone wanting to work out how much kickback they should be getting (the ridiculous demand for exact monetary value of donated emergency relief supplies); or if they need time to remove all Chinese characters off of packaging and concentrators themselves, since Modi evidently wants to take personal credit by distributing via the shamelessly named PM Care scheme. Hell, maybe Mobi is taking a leaf out of Trump’s book and is insisting all the oxygen concentrators be stamped with his personal signature and grinning mug before they can be sent to those in need.
 

siegecrossbow

Brigadier
Staff member
Super Moderator
Can’t decide if it’s someone wanting to work out how much kickback they should be getting (the ridiculous demand for exact monetary value of donated emergency relief supplies); or if they need time to remove all Chinese characters off of packaging and concentrators themselves, since Modi evidently wants to take personal credit by distributing via the shamelessly named PM Care scheme. Hell, maybe Mobi is taking a leaf out of Trump’s book and is insisting all the oxygen concentrators be stamped with his personal signature and grinning mug before they can be sent to those in need.

At the rate things are progressing they can probably enjoy their kickback money in the next life.
 

plawolf

Brigadier
India has gifted this world another strain. This one apparently 15 times more virulent than the previous one.

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Paradoxically that may be a good thing!

One of the characteristics of Covid that makes it so contagious is it’s long incubation time where patients are infectious without showing symptoms for up to weeks.

A more contagious strain that makes patients present with serious symptoms much earlier may therefore actually help to control its spread by reducing the amount of time carriers are spreading the virus while still asymptotic.
 

Xsizor

Senior Member
Registered Member
Paradoxically that may be a good thing!

One of the characteristics of Covid that makes it so contagious is it’s long incubation time where patients are infectious without showing symptoms for up to weeks.

A more contagious strain that makes patients present with serious symptoms much earlier may therefore actually help to control its spread by reducing the amount of time carriers are spreading the virus while still asymptotic.
That's one way to see things. But what about the population density of India? This virus is capable of reinfections too.

This is bad.
 

plawolf

Brigadier
That's one way to see things. But what about the population density of India? This virus is capable of reinfections too.

This is bad.
Yeah, India is fucked as this will massively compress the timeframe between infection and needing intensive care, thereby putting much more strain on its already overburdened and bulking health infrastructure, so mortality rates are very likely to skyrocket as huge numbers of people who would have survived with the right care will instead die waiting in line. It’s going to get ugly, and fast.

But again, paradoxically that’s basically how pandemics have gone away in the past - it mutates into strains so deadly it kills off the host before they can pass it on, thereby cutting its own transmission rates.

The key will be whether and how well India can control the inevitable mass exodus’s from viral hot zones as the scale of death becomes apparent and people start to flee for their lives (literally). 3-4 days is still plenty of time to cover a lot of miles even discounting air travel.

As others have already mentioned, the priority now should be to vaccinate all population centres in neighbouring with direct land links to India, starting with areas boardering India, specially on key road/rail transportation routes.
 

Xsizor

Senior Member
Registered Member
Yeah, India is fucked as this will massively compress the timeframe between infection and needing intensive care, thereby putting much more strain on its already overburdened and bulking health infrastructure, so mortality rates are very likely to skyrocket as huge numbers of people who would have survived with the right care will instead die waiting in line. It’s going to get ugly, and fast.

But again, paradoxically that’s basically how pandemics have gone away in the past - it mutates into strains so deadly it kills off the host before they can pass it on, thereby cutting its own transmission rates.

The key will be whether and how well India can control the inevitable mass exodus’s from viral hot zones as the scale of death becomes apparent and people start to flee for their lives (literally). 3-4 days is still plenty of time to cover a lot of miles even discounting air travel.

As others have already mentioned, the priority now should be to vaccinate all population centres in neighbouring with direct land links to India, starting with areas boardering India, specially on key road/rail transportation routes.
But, regarding vaccinations -

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The chief executive of India’s Serum Institute, the world’s biggest vaccine manufacturer, has warned that shortages of jabs will persist for months after Narendra Modi’s government failed to prepare for a devastating second coronavirus wave.

Adar Poonawalla told the Financial Times that India’s severe vaccine shortage would continue through July, when production is expected to increase from about 60m-70m doses a month to 100m.

Poonawalla said that the authorities did not expect to confront a second wave back in January when new coronavirus cases had declined. “Everybody really felt that India had started to turn the tide on the pandemic,” he said.
 

plawolf

Brigadier
India is basically a lost cause at this point. They have no choice but to ride this out and see where fate takes them. The Indian government’s performance has been so atrocious to date that I think Indians should count their blessings if Indian government action doesn’t make things worse.

Ideally they should be doing lock downs, but since they are manifestly not remotely prepared for that, at a minimum they should be putting travel bans in place for the worst affect areas to at least try to limit or slow down the spread to the rest of the country. This could be reinforced with targeted mandatory mass vaccinations in surround areas to try to create a fire break.

Once the spread of the outbreak is controlled geographically, they can then surge equipment, supplies and personnel in to try to worst affect areas to try to reduce the mortality rate.

But since that’s basically the China model, they will probably deliberately avoid doing it out of spite and pride and try ridiculous things like cow urine chugging and mass swims in holy rivers and the like. As I said, Indians would be lucky if their government doesn’t actively make things worse.
 

LawLeadsToPeace

Junior Member
Registered Member
@plawolf
I only see one way out for India,

India ought to reach out to one particular country for vaccines
CHINA.

If India approves Chinese vaccines and tries to do the test-track-quarantine like China then there is hope.
Unfortunately, I think that is just outright impossible due to the following reasons (excluding political ones because I think we all know them):
1. Variants: Unless there is data out there that I dont know of, we dont know how effective the Chinese vaccines are against them
2. Bad logistics and leadership: India's infection rate would easily surpass the vaccination rate thanks to the lack of control and command by the Indian government even if China just dumped millions of vaccines into India. Additionally, their infrastructure is just abysmal. They dont have the necessary roads, bridges, communication, personal, and etc to coordinate the 'test track quarantine' process and a vaccination campaign. A superior country like China had to sacrifice a lot to handle the virus.

At this point, India is unfortunately a lost cause. The best their people can do is hope for the best, vaccinate if they can, and wear the best mask configuration they can afford. As for the rest of the world, just seal India up and help them out as much they can by providing as much supplies as possible to prevent the virus from expanding its reach (fortunately I think every nation is doing that).
 

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