Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)


AndrewS

Major
Registered Member
How much crow does the Czech Republic want served with the Chinese vaccine they want? You better believe like with Western countries, they have to save face when they need China for something so expect some offense from the Czech Republic against China afterwards since they come begging with hat in hand.

Remember that the Czech President is friendly to China.
In comparison, the security services and the Mayor of Prague are hostile.

If people start taking a Chinese vaccine, it would generally result in friendlier attitudes from everyone who has the vaccine.
 

AssassinsMace

Brigadier
Remember that the Czech President is friendly to China.
In comparison, the security services and the Mayor of Prague are hostile.

If people start taking a Chinese vaccine, it would generally result in friendlier attitudes from everyone who has the vaccine.
Yes but afterwards it seems the country tilted towards the mayor's position. From what I understand asking for the Chinese vaccine was last resort. They supposedly asked Russia for their vaccine before China. The only reason why they're asking China is because the West failed to share the vaccine.
 

KYli

Captain
Yes but afterwards it seems the country tilted towards the mayor's position. From what I understand asking for the Chinese vaccine was last resort. They supposedly asked Russia for their vaccine before China. The only reason why they're asking China is because the West failed to share the vaccine.
Czech PM is anti-China and anti-Russia. Czech president wants better tie with China and Russia. However, in Czech the cabinet which controlled by the PM hold real power.
 

texx1

Junior Member
Czech PM is anti-China and anti-Russia. Czech president wants better tie with China and Russia. However, in Czech the cabinet which controlled by the PM hold real power.
It's the classic good cop/bad cop routine. And in this case the good cop doesn't even have any real power/political influence. Not to mention, several key members of czech parliament made a high profile diplomatic visit to taiwan last year. In light of all this, granting vaccines is not likely to generate useful goodwill. On the contrary, it would make PRC appear weak and appeasing to governments that don't even respect its core interests.
 

KYli

Captain
It's the classic good cop/bad cop routine. And in this case the good cop doesn't even have any real power/political influence. Not to mention, several key members of czech parliament made a high profile diplomatic visit to taiwan last year. In light of all this, granting vaccines is not likely to generate useful goodwill. On the contrary, it would make PRC appear weak and appeasing to governments that don't even respect its core interests.
I agree with you that it is a good cop and bad cop routine. However, China has already promised to make its vaccines available to the world. If Poland and Czech formally made the request, then it is difficult to turn them down. And it is a great PR win. In addition, there is no free lunch. For countries that don't have a strong tie with China, I would think they would implicitly or explicitly need to show some goodwill before getting the vaccines. At the moment, China's primary enemies are the 5 eyes. Czech and Poland more or less are Russian problem. China didn't go after Czech for its silly political maneuver is due to the fact that China needed to focus upon Australia and later other 5 eyes members which is a much bigger problem. Making example out of Australia is much more important.
 

j17wang

Junior Member
Registered Member
Remember that the Czech President is friendly to China.
In comparison, the security services and the Mayor of Prague are hostile.

If people start taking a Chinese vaccine, it would generally result in friendlier attitudes from everyone who has the vaccine.

Yes but afterwards it seems the country tilted towards the mayor's position. From what I understand asking for the Chinese vaccine was last resort. They supposedly asked Russia for their vaccine before China. The only reason why they're asking China is because the West failed to share the vaccine.

Still a win to have china's vaccines used more broadly. Perceptions of acceptance in the EU do look like stamps of approval and legitimacy, whether we agree or not. Harder to spew hate towards the chinese people when you have been vaccinated by them. China needs to be patient and play the long game.
 

j17wang

Junior Member
Registered Member
China already has the production capacity to produce 2.6 billions doses of covid vaccines annually. 500 millions of those doses are from CanSino single dose vaccine. Sinovac has planned to ramp up production to 2 billion doses by June from 1 billion doses. Sinopharm has planned to ramp up production to 3 billion doses within 2 years or so from 1 billion doses. China still has Zhifei vaccine and multiple other vaccines that would be approved before year end. So I think you have underestimated China's ability to meet the demand of vaccines around the world.

At the moment, China doesn't have a supply side problem but a demand side problem. Most people feel relatively safe and have no urgency to take vaccines. That's why they have lowered the goal of inoculating 40% from June to July. Major buyers such as UAE, Turkey, Indonesia, Brazil, and Mexico buy bulk ingredients and do the filling and packaging by themselves. Other small buyers and donations wouldn't be a problem for China.

Siberia has already relied upon Sinopharm for vaccination. Hungary has agreed to procure 5 millions doses from Sinopharm. So it is not unrealistic for Poland or Czech to order 5-10 millions doses and ask to deliver in 4 months. It is a great PR coup for China if Western nations would be forced to rely upon China for vaccines. The naysayers in the third world countries would shut up and allow their government procure Chinese vaccines.

China doesn't need to help everybody. The 5 eyes does not want China's help nor does India, and Chinas own population does not need urgent distribution. The entirety of SEA/LATAM/Africa/MEA can be vaccinated by China alone, especially as China doesnt seem to be going all out on vaccinating its own people (which is medically unnecessary at this point).

The current conservative numbers for FY21 will be:
Sinopharm 1 billion
Sinovac 2 billion
Cansino 500 million
ZF2001 RBD Dimer 300 million
BioNTech - Astra Zeneca chinese production: 300 million

Realistically Sinopharm is a much bigger company than Sinovac and Cansino Biologics combined, and will also hit about 2 billion before end of year. Realistically, baseline production in China is closer to 4-5 billion doses at this stage, assuming none of the other Phase III vaccines get approval.

China needs to be able to dropship 3-5 million doses at once to a country, basically to start the mass vaccination process. If they get doses from Pfizer or COVAX 3-4 months later I'm sure it will be nice but by then people will remember whose plane arrived first and carried the most doses. Also, I think it would be helpful if Sinopharm and Sinovac also shipped into each others customer markets, basically not only to increase depth of distribution (like hundreds of millions of doses to brazil, turkey, and indonesia each) but also to cover breadth of more countries for general awareness.
 

texx1

Junior Member
I agree with you that it is a good cop and bad cop routine. However, China has already promised to make its vaccines available to the world. If Poland and Czech formally made the request, then it is difficult to turn them down. And it is a great PR win. In addition, there is no free lunch. For countries that don't have a strong tie with China, I would think they would implicitly or explicitly need to show some goodwill before getting the vaccines. At the moment, China's primary enemies are the 5 eyes. Czech and Poland more or less are Russian problem. China didn't go after Czech for its silly political maneuver is due to the fact that China needed to focus upon Australia and later other 5 eyes members which is a much bigger problem. Making example out of Australia is much more important.
It's a PR win only if the audience is receptive. As far as I know, Czech political establishment and public are openly anti-communist and by extension anti-china. China exported many tons of masks and other protective equipment to Czech last year, that didn't improve China's image. Also, PRC has long made clear that the diplomatic recognition of Taiwan is one of its red lines, Czech's unpunished visit just created more doubt on how serious PRC is at deterring Taiwan independence.

There is also a domestic public image problem for CCP since the Taiwan visit story was not censored in Chinese media. It was openly discussed by Chinese citizens and there were already justified accusations of CCP showing weakness due to no retaliation. Given there is no public roll-out of a massive vaccination program within China at this time, sending vaccines that are currently unavailable to many regular Chinese citizens to undeserving countries would lower CCP's own standing. It's fine that Chinese government wants to be magnanimous by prioritizing foreigners' interest ahead of its own citizens. However there should be a limit. Friendly countries should be rewarded and hostile countries should be told to wait at the back of the line.
 

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