Chinese semiconductor thread II

[jx191]

Ydah , i think that will be a big issue for China. Afterall, they still import alot semi conductor equipment from US allies in europe, Taiwan, Japan and south Korea. China still needs a couple of years for her semi industry to fully mature and be self sufficient. That's why im not sure why the government has taken those strong steps of restrictions on rare earth metals this time, when the country still needs semiconductor equipments and products from abroad.

If they feel confident in striking hard with rare earths, there has to be a reason behind it.

I've seen some speculation about China's DUVi gearing up for serious action, giving the Chinese government confidence to be harsh with RE.

The fact that they are being aggressive is a clear sign that something has happened recently which is giving the Chinese semiconductor industry a huge amount of confidence.

 

[tphuang]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1976772325518238002

my thread here on how super hard material and diamond is used in semiconductor industry. Hint, it's pretty important.

 

[tphuang]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1976964717869776949

Gallium grades for different purity level. Note here that you need to be at 8N purity level to be used in GaN epitaxy. Given that we are seeing huge Ga transshipment going on through Europe, an important question to ask is why it has not been included in the list of minerals for order 61. Will it and ge get its own export control upgrades?

 

[siegecrossbow]

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The new rules would require businesses that make most chips to obtain an export license to sell them anywhere in the world. That means the rules could apply to companies like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, which makes most of the world’s advanced logic chips, and SK Hynix and Samsung, the South Korean makers of memory chips.

 

[tokenanalyst]

While some people think that China export rules upgrades was a response for the US 50% company rule, personally I think China mineral rules was overdue. But I do think that China lawmakers could be anticipating to a proposal of the "Selected Committee of the SeeSeePee" about banning tools exports to China nationwide instead of a company by company basis.

China will impose their own FDPR to the US.

 

[jx191]

Sicarrier already revealed 5nm Non-Litho tool/equipment back in March. so this list doesn't make sense. hmm

but they are talking about big surprise. interesting to see what they will showcase.

Does anyone have any ideas? A mysterious product announcement after the government restricted rare earths seems like it's not a coincidence. Does anyone have any sort of clue as to what they will reveal to the world?

 

[Michael90]

China is already close to self sufficiency in production of blank wafers. I would say it will be fully self sufficient on them in 2 years.

With regards to photoresist, and semiconductor grade chemicals, which some US stooges think can be used as a chokehold on China, there seem to be viable local alternatives to pretty much everything. Just not enough production volume yet.

If they ban supply of parts to imported WFE I expect the industry in China to develop substitutes to keep the machines running.

I would say if they had waited another 2-4 years then China would be in a better position. But they probably think they have pushed the current situation as far as they can.
The US stooges finally realized Chinese WFE imports have not come significantly down like they expected and like I said here would happen.

Yeah but I still think it would have been better for China to be as cautious and reserved as the CCP has been for decades. Time is on their side. As you said they just need a few more years at most to reallly be completely independent in almost all critical sectors of the semi conductor chain. So I think this measure could have been taken a few years from now, just not at this moment.
However maybe the authorizes know some things we don’t know, and it could be that China is already self sufficient enough in most of this crucial sectors. We don’t know, I guess they have been careful and analyzed all possibilities before taking this measure

 

[Michael90]

It will take time to adjust to the new conditions. Look at the Russian auto sector. It took them 2 years to recover. That is about the time it takes to ramp up facilities.

Yeah but that’s different, because Russia was not prepared at all for the sanctions . So they were caught off guard. They expected the war to be over in 3 weeks. They never expected Ukraine to e such a tough nut to crack and the war lasting years(4years now) with no end in sight. So they never expected such wide ranging sanctions ,so it’s understandable they were affected and took such long time to recover with Chinas help.
However, China has been in a trade war with the US continuously for over7 years now. So would expect them to have expected and planned for the worse long ago.
So not sure how long they expect to take to recover if the US ever goes all out.

 

[gelgoog]

That is not true. Russia has been reducing its dependence on imports since 2014 or earlier.
Priority was given to military production and agriculture. Food processing, farm machinery, etc.
But this was done across the board as well. Low interest rate state backed loans were provided to any industry wanting to reduce import dependence.
The cut in access to the Western financial sector was fully expected and mitigated with the Mir card and SPFS.

Why do you think Russia is handling the Western sanctions just fine despite them being the harshest ever? Harsher than on Cuba or Iran. They prepared for them for like a decade.

 

[huemens]

Does anyone have any ideas? A mysterious product announcement after the government restricted rare earths seems like it's not a coincidence. Does anyone have any sort of clue as to what they will reveal to the world?

Why speculate, just wait, it's only a couple of days.
I still don't see any benefit of exposing immersion litho tools to public. It's better to keep adversaries guessing.