Chinese semiconductor industry

Xsizor said:

Its my opinion that we must try to allow pessimism to take control of this thread. As turn-off as it may sound, this thread can get really high on hot air like a Hot air balloon.

As part of this pessimism, it is important to presume that every breakthrough China makes is not commercially viable ( as in not fit for mass production applications - even if the spokespersons/leakers/sources insist on them being mass production ready ).

Also, it is important to scale back expectations of rapid rise as there is considerable difference between lab success and fab success. Allow the thread to be pessimistic for it improves the quality of the thread. Very often are the readers here taken on a roller coaster ride. When will you learn?

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I had always suspected that hostile forces were focusing on this forum to gather intel for their anti-China agenda. Why do I say this? It's because I've read MANY articles in the recent past that repeat news and opinions that FIRST appeared here before being written there and then given some negative or hostile anti-China spin when concluding those articles.

I have said it before and will repeat it again now. Be careful of what you say here. There is a number of not only subject matter experts here but more importantly, skilled analysts with valuable opinions, despite sometimes their lacking of certain technical knowledge. This is the difference between the sometimes knowledgeable yet ideological anti-China crowd and those who can reason without the anti-China bias that is the backdrop of everything related to China.

ansy1968 said:

@FairAndUnbiased @krautmeister @tokenanalyst bro had the EUVL reach the scale were it will be competitive against DUVL? with multiple FABS sprouting out in the US, EU and maybe Japan all using EUVL an infection point had been reach? Will it affect SMEE 28 DUVL and have a shortened career as China will obvious go with the trend and focus its attention?

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foofy said:

HwaTsing Co. Ltd. successfully launched the 12-inch ultra-precision wafer thinning machine Versatile-GP300 with independent intellectual property rights, which was shipped to a customer's large production line on September 27.

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tokenanalyst said:

Looks like SMEE is launching a new type lithography machine for packaging and other areas. Probably and hopefully the first in a new generation of lithography machines for China.

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I should have expanded a little bit on what I meant by the coming of 3D chiplet proliferation. There were 2 recent developments that really demonstrates how far along China already is towards 3D chiplets. With the GP300, this effectively will allow China to produce 3D ICs in the near-medium future because we already know that SMEE lithography has 2.5nm overlay precision. With the SSB520, we have the large field multi-process packaging needed for heterogeneous chiplet integration that appears to be as advanced as Canon's FPA6300 wide field machines.

It's no longer a question of "IF" China will achieve independence but rather how soon it will happen. The longer the anti-China semiconductor sanctions can be extended or expanded, the more market share and greater domination of the global semiconductor market China will eventually control. This is why I believe that everybody should temper their expectations, or at least their EXPRESSION of their expectations. Keep this in mind always because there are hostile forces watching us. They are reading this now just as you are reading it. I only say it openly because the brainwashing outside China is so strong, so extensive and has endured for so long that my words have little to zero effect in that echo chamber of madness. It is only those voices of reason who express unbiased opinions who have the potential to breakthrough that echo chamber and we have to never allow that to happen because that is a major advantage that China has.

krautmeister said:

I had always suspected that hostile forces were focusing on this forum to gather intel for their anti-China agenda. Why do I say this? It's because I've read MANY articles in the recent past that repeat news and opinions that FIRST appeared here before being written there and then given some negative or hostile anti-China spin when concluding those articles.

I have said it before and will repeat it again now. Be careful of what you say here. There is a number of not only subject matter experts here but more importantly, skilled analysts with valuable opinions, despite sometimes their lacking of certain technical knowledge. This is the difference between the sometimes knowledgeable yet ideological anti-China crowd and those who can reason without the anti-China bias that is the backdrop of everything related to China.

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This is ridiculous. There are better avenues for gathering Intel than a puny forum like this. The only thing this forum will appeal to, if any, are semi-serious technology journalists/ reporters or writers, writing for technology websites and newspapers.

But that's about it. With some good dollars, you can implant agents to leak information.

Xsizor said:

I thought I read here(likely) that 28nm had started production already at SMIC and 14nm was being worked on. If what you said is true then I'd readily peg China's progress even lower.

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I'm sorry, but I think this one is on you -- if you were under that impression, then I think your tracking of the relevant pieces of news and rumours was simply inaccurate.

For the last year or so, there have been enough users here giving us good and accurate rumours that has been corroborated with subsequent news leaks, telling us about the status of the localized 28nm DUVL line and the predictions on the domestic 28nm and 14nm processes going into this year and next.

ZeEa5KPul said:

The 28nm, 14nm, and 7nm processes use the same machines.

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I'm well aware.

However, they are not going to directly go to domestic 14nm processes once they have a domestic 28nm line up and running, they're going to go for 28nm processes first, which is also what the rumours have been saying.

Unless that consensus has changed.

From what I've read 28nm is good enough for Huawei's main base station business to continue. I'd be very happy if de-Americanized 28nm processes can be ready for mass production before the end of 2022 or mid-2023.

OppositeDay said:

From what I've read 28nm is good enough for Huawei's main base station business to continue. I'd be very happy if de-Americanized 28nm processes can be ready for mass production before the end of 2022 or mid-2023.

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I think will earlier than that, my guess in in Q1 2022 be mass produced, remember we are talking about China speed here, working 24/7 non stop (different shift of course)

antiterror13 said:

I think will earlier than that, my guess in in Q1 2022 be mass produced, remember we are talking about China speed here, working 24/7 non stop (different shift of course)

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Can we reliably say that "China speed" can be replicated in a high technology sphere like Semiconductors?

I don't like to table much examples but "China speed" find its challenges when it comes to certain spheres. We certainly have the market and the government to support...

But the rest, including successful back to back tech breakthroughs are a toss. Let's hope for the best .

Xsizor said:

Can we reliably say that "China speed" can be replicated in a high technology sphere like Semiconductors?

I don't like to table much examples but "China speed" find its challenges when it comes to certain spheres. We certainly have the market and the government to support...

But the rest, including successful back to back tech breakthroughs are a toss. Let's hope for the best .

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I think "China speed" can be replicated to semiconductor, heck even true for high performance turbo fan engine. WS-10 series and WS-15 are among the top in the world for military planes

Pretty sure they are working on 28nm, 14nm, 7nm, 5nm all simultaneously, each with multiple teams. It's the whole of nation approach.