Here is a better reference for you:
It's much closer to the China graph than the wild swings seen in the Russian chart that you provided. As you see, in US history, we have seen many periods of slightly declining birth rate despite fast GDP growth and increase in standard of living.
good, then a person competent ( and who doesn't make magnitude errors in simple natgas to oil calculation ) can calculate the chance to see it as a random fluctuation OR issue with the underlying numbers.( birth rate, unemployment rate or both).Never had a question for you in the first place. I only ask to people who are competent for answers.
Here is data on China's unemployment rate:
In 2012, unemployment was 4.09%; in 2018, it was 4%. In 2012, China's fertility rate was just over 12% and in 2018, it declined to 11%. The most dramatic drop was between 2016 and 2017, then the unemployment dropped from 4.02% to 3.9% but fertility rate also dropped half a percentage. Both these trends are contradictory to the study that you posted but no doubt failed to understand. Your article has nothing to do with China.
In China's case, the drop in fertility rate with obvious increase in economic prosperity is easily traced to the newly prevailing attitudes that 1. childbearing can be postponed to enjoy life more while the couple is young 2. it is more important to focus on your career when you are young and worry about family after later.
I'm not a fan of either concept but it is impossible to interpret China's slight drop in childbirth as a decline in the Chinese economy, especially because we have actual economic figures to use to interpret China's economy with.
There's no indication that such a person with the capability exists and there's no way to verify the accuracy of such a "chance" (say 57%) even when the outcome is apparent so I would say that that effort would be completely meaningless.good, then a person competent ( and who doesn't make magnitude errors in simple natgas to oil calculation ) can calculate the chance to see it as a random fluctuation OR issue with the underlying numbers.( birth rate, unemployment rate or both).
Read this :