Chinese Economics Thread


Skywatcher

Senior Member
now noticed the tweet
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China will become a high-income country by 2025 and the world's largest economy by 2030, Justine Yifu Lin, former senior vice president and chief economist at the World Bank, said on Monday.

Umm, shouldn't China be the world's largest economy by nominal GDP in 2025-26 at latest?
 

Anlsvrthng

Senior Member
Registered Member
I may be wrong. But I do not believe he's an economists. He's qualification are master in business administration and master in international studies.
It's impressive nontheless. But an economists he is not.
And when he constantly and consistently wrong (particularly on China) on the stuff he writes. One would have to treat his opinions with caution.
Especially so when he writes about China can't innovate because it is in our cultural and the chinese education system. It showed clearly the racist undertone.
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Suggest to read his bio and his writing.

He repeating the same stuff for ten years, and his point was simple: spreading the debt to the household sector will make the thing worst in medium / long term, not better.
But of course in long term all of us dead.
 

Gatekeeper

Major
Registered Member
Suggest to read his bio and his writing.

He repeating the same stuff for ten years, and his point was simple: spreading the debt to the household sector will make the thing worst in medium / long term, not better.
But of course in long term all of us dead.
I can't understand what's your point! You have not answer my points directly, yet you quote my post?
I don't know why you keep moving the goalpost. I've read a number of your postings with other members here. And you have not learned anything about debating with people.
Almost each and everyone of then have stopped debating with you because it is frustrating. This should tell you you need to reevaluate your debating techniques.
First of all you have made no attempt in answering my queries regarding him being economists as quoted by you. (I'm still waiting).
You also not reply in why I, and others think the stufff he writes about give causes for concerns. (He's writing economics stuff which he's not qualified to do)!
As such, we must read his work with reservation.
I have read some of the stuff he writes. ( I even linked his stuff on my post a couple of times to show what sort of stuff he writes about). Yet, you see fit to tell me to go read his writing???? Eh!
In addition, you said he's been writing for ten years (got news for you.... we know)! And most of his writing is debt is bad! (Got more news for you..... we also know)!
You seem to have a fixation on debts. But this fixation only extends to Chinese debts!! Do you know chinese debts is not as bad as Western debts? See link.
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Now. Here's more news for you. Not all debts is bad! It just too much debt will give rise to risk of default.
I don't know where you're from or whether you're old enough to own your own home (I'm not being personal here) I just wanted to illustrate to you why people can have debts that are three or four times their annual income and they still live a perfectly normal life. It's called a mortgage!
So if households can have debts of 300 to 400% of their income, national debts of 150% is surly manageable.
Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying debt is good. But it has its place in helping growth. Both household and on a national level.
 

Gatekeeper

Major
Registered Member
Cont.
"In the long run, we all be dead"
I can't believe you quoted Keynes ( one if the great economists of modern time), a required reading when I was a student.
Keynes basically said that to a politician who argues against increasing the national debt by saying "in the long run the market will find its own equilibrium" so basically there's no need to worry about the great depression
Keynes through his demand management theory argues that government need to increase their borrowing to increase national income to bring it out of the great depression!
 

Gatekeeper

Major
Registered Member
Cont.
"In the long run, we all be dead"
I can't believe you quoted Keynes ( one if the great economists of modern time), a required reading when I was a student.
Keynes basically said that to a politician who argues against increasing the national debt by saying "in the long run the market will find its own equilibrium" so basically there's no need to worry about the great depression
Keynes through his demand management theory argues that government need to increase their borrowing to increase national income to bring it out of the great depression!
 

Hendrik_2000

Brigadier
So much for the notion Chinese economy slow down
By the end of this year, China will have 55.8 percent of all online retail sales globally, with that figure expected to exceed 63 percent by 2022, according to the report. It also predicted that the U.S. share of the global e-commerce market is expected to drop to 15 percent by 2022.
China to become world's largest retail market in 2019: eMarketer
CGTN
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China may overtake the U.S. as the world's biggest retail market this year, according to a report published Wednesday by research firm eMarketer.

The report predicted that China's total retail sales will grow 7.5 percent to reach 5.636 trillion U.S. dollars in 2019, while that of the U.S. will grow 3.3 percent to 5.529 trillion U.S. dollars.

The sale boom, according to the report, is a result of China's rising incomes and thriving e-commerce.

"In recent years, consumers in China have experienced rising incomes, catapulting millions into the new middle class," said Monica Peart, senior forecasting director at eMarketer. "The result has been a marked rise in purchasing power and average spending per person."

E-commerce is a major driver of China's retail economy, accounting for almost one-fifth of the country's total retail sales in 2018, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

On China's annual shopping holiday, Singles' Day, e-commerce giant Alibaba scooped over 10 billion yuan (1.47 billion U.S. dollars) in just two minutes. Its 24-hour sales amounted to a record of 31.46 billion U.S. dollars, exceeding that of Cyber Monday and Black Friday combined.

By the end of this year, China will have 55.8 percent of all online retail sales globally, with that figure expected to exceed 63 percent by 2022, according to the report. It also predicted that the U.S. share of the global e-commerce market is expected to drop to 15 percent by 2022.
 

AssassinsMace

Brigadier
At Davos the US was leading all its allies on creating an international e-commerce regime where again the US gets to write the rules. Too bad China is the largest e-commerce market in the world. Again like TPP it's all about China. They act like they're the ones in control when they know they're not. They want in on that market and they think they can directly sell to Chinese consumers bypassing stores and directly making all the profits for themselves without a distributor.
 

hkbc

Junior Member
At Davos the US was leading all its allies on creating an international e-commerce regime where again the US gets to write the rules. Too bad China is the largest e-commerce market in the world. Again like TPP it's all about China. They act like they're the ones in control when they know they're not. They want in on that market and they think they can directly sell to Chinese consumers bypassing stores and directly making all the profits for themselves without a distributor.
The US got to scribe pretty much all the current rulesets then picks and chooses the ones it wants to adhere to (ICJ and UNCLOS, anyone) but still manages to consistently be on the losing end so if you can't win your own rigged games, cry foul at every opportunity, maybe its time to concentrate on getting better at playing the game instead of trying to rig it!

You don't accidentally go from nothing to a full fledged e-commerce contender to largest in the world, maybe the time, money and energy spent by the US on containment would be better invested in just being better at stuff instead of blaming everyone else for its ills.
 

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