Chinese Economics Thread


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China's economy shows resilience, potential despite downward pressure: expert
Xinhua| 2019-01-30 00:37:20
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China's economy showed great resilience and potential when transitioning from rapid growth to high-quality development, despite economic downward pressure.

"Though growing at a relatively slower pace, China's economy saw a prominent transition in growth momentum, economic structure and development mode," Zhang Yansheng, a chief research fellow with the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, told a press briefing Tuesday.

The world's second-largest economy grew 6.6 percent year on year in 2018, above the official target of around 6.5 percent but lower than the 6.8-percent growth registered in 2017.

Growth in the fourth quarter came in at 6.4 percent, down from 6.5 percent seen in the third quarter.

Zhang called for more attention to a broader picture behind the easing economic growth such as the dynamic economic structure, the advantages of a complete industry chain and enough leeway of domestic demand thanks to the 40 year's reform and opening-up.

China's expenditure on research and development accounted for 2.15 percent of GDP in 2018, while the country saw world's largest number of patent applications and issuances last year, data from the Ministry of Science and Technology showed.

"The advantage of innovation indicators will turn from volume into quality after years of development," Zhang said.

China will also provide a better market environment for global investors in 2019, said Zhang, as the country's tone-setting economic conference in last month urged transformation in opening up the market from goods and elements flowing to more institutional changes.

"China will explore new markets with global investors and establish all-around cooperation," Zhang said.
 

hkbc

Junior Member
There's no indication that such a person with the capability exists and there's no way to verify the accuracy of such a "chance" (say 57%) even when the outcome is apparent so I would say that that effort would be completely meaningless.

Wikipedia again... Really pointless talking to you since this is your default when you don't know what to say. Nobody will waste time arguing with a concept on wikipedia.
Thought we're not going to interact with the troll! I know its tempting to respond to erroneous crap but it just clogs up threads with even more nonsense, just my 2cents
 

Anlsvrthng

Senior Member
Registered Member
The Chinese birth rate is quite interesting.
On the
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there is no 2018 data, but reuters deliver it :
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And 10.94 for 2018.

Now, the interesting is that if we pick the from 2004 ( to cut out the high years) then the biggest deviation from the series is 2016 and 2018.
"2018 two times bigger than 2016, and to the other direction.

Now, the 16+17+18 average is nearly the same like the 04-15 average : O

But the policy change in 2015 was the introduction of te
 

pipaster

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BEIJING, Jan. 30 (Xinhua) -- China's rapid growth in domestic tourism continued in 2018 when the country recorded a total of 5.54 billion domestic tourist trips, up 10.76 percent year-on-year, the Ministry of Culture and Tourism announced Wednesday.

Domestic traveling brought a total of 5.13 trillion yuan (764 billion U.S. dollars) in revenue to the tourism sector last year, registering a 12.3 percent increase compared with 2017, according to the ministry at a press conference.

With growing cultural consumption demand by residents, China saw its per capita expenditure on consumption on education, cultural and entertainment products increase 6.7 percent to 2,226 yuan (331 U.S. dollars) in 2018, accounting for 11.2 percent of per capita consumption expenditure, the ministry said.

As urbanization in China continued to advance and people's livelihood improved steadily in recent years, residents' cultural and tourism consumption expenditure continued to increase and has evolved to become a new economic growth area, according to ministry officials.

Officials at the press conference stressed the importance of supplying quality cultural and tourism products during the Spring Festival holidays and called for efforts to promote new tourism consumption areas like winter sports and springwater tours.

Spring Festival (Chinese New Year) falls on Feb. 5 this year and is the most important festival in China.

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BEIJING, Jan. 31 (Xinhua) -- The purchasing managers' index (PMI) for China's manufacturing sector came in at 49.5 this month, slightly up from 49.4 in December, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said Thursday.

A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below reflects contraction.

The slight increase ended month-on-month declines reported in the previous four months in a row, NBS senior statistician Zhao Qinghe said in a statement.

The sub-indices for production and raw material inventories both edged up from December, while those for new orders, employment, and supplier delivery time dropped to different extents.

Large companies saw the manufacturing PMI up 1.2 points to 51.3, whereas the readings for medium-sized and small companies dropped 1.2 and 1.3 points, respectively.

Zhang Liqun, researcher with the Development Research Center of the State Council, said the new data pointed to signs of the country's economic stabilization, but the foundation still needs to be consolidated.

This month, the non-manufacturing PMI rose 0.9 points from December to 54.7, and the composite PMI output index rose 0.6 points to 53.2, the NBS data showed.

China's GDP growth was 6.6 percent in 2018, above the government's annual target of around 6.5 percent, but slightly down from the revised growth of 6.8 percent for 2017.
 
now noticed the tweet
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World's biggest
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consumer for the 6th straight year: China's gold consumption rose 5.73% year on year to 1,151.43 tonnes in 2018 on the back of strong domestic demand, industry data showed Thursday

 
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Economic Watch: Chinese economy starts 2019 with signs of stabilization
Xinhua| 2019-01-31 15:51:16
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As the first snapshot of China's economic activity in 2019, the closely-watched purchasing managers' index (PMI) unveiled Thursday offered fresh signs of stabilization.

PMI for the manufacturing sector came in at 49.5 this month, slightly up from 49.4 in December, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said.

A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below reflects contraction.

Although the figure stayed below the boom-bust line for a second month, the slight increase in the reading ended a consecutive four-month decline, NBS senior statistician Zhao Qinghe said in a statement.

The manufacturing sector experienced faster expansion, with the sub-index up slightly by 0.1 points, Zhao said.

Despite a mild decline in the reading for new orders, the sub-index for new export orders rebounded by 0.3 points from December, showing moderate recovery in external demand, he added.

The sub-indices for raw material inventories, raw material purchase prices and factory-gate prices nudged higher from December, while those for new orders, employment and supplier delivery time dropped.

Large companies saw the manufacturing PMI up 1.2 points to 51.3, whereas the readings for small- and medium-sized companies dropped 1.3 and 1.2 points, respectively.

Meanwhile, large companies were more upbeat about growth prospects than smaller firms, Zhao said.

Zhao also sees the growing prowess of new sources of growth, as the sub-reading for production of the high-tech manufacturing sector rose 3.2 points from December to 51.6.

Zhang Liqun, a researcher with the Development Research Center of the State Council, said the new data pointed to signs of the country's economic stabilization, but the foundation still needs to be further consolidated.

"Headline PMI edged up largely due to temporary re-stocking in the raw materials industries, helped by lower inventory levels at the start of the year," investment banking firm CICC said in a research note.

However, the data indicated that aggregate demand growth continued to be sluggish, while consumer and producer confidence remains weak for now, the note reads.

Looking forward, the CICC said it would closely watch for changes in leading indicators such as credit cycle and monitor sectors vulnerable to demand-supply imbalances, especially the property sector, as well as the evolution of household income and consumption.

This month, the non-manufacturing PMI rose 0.9 points from December to 54.7, higher than the monthly average of 54.4 in 2018.

The service sector, which accounted for more than half of the country's GDP, posted stronger expansion with its business index climbing to 53.6 from 52.3 in December.

Boosted by pre-holiday factors and consumption upgrades, wholesale, rail transportation, aviation, delivery, telecom, banking, insurance, tourism and other commercial services posted robust expansion, Zhao said.

The composite PMI output index, which took into consideration both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors, rose 0.6 points to 53.2, the NBS said.

The data came as some relief after China posted slower GDP growth, which was 6.6 percent in 2018, above the government's annual target of around 6.5 percent but slightly down from the revised growth of 6.8 percent for 2017.
 
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China's first PPP-funded high-speed railway under construction
Xinhua| 2019-02-02 15:36:53
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Construction of China's first public-private partnership (PPP) funded high-speed railway has kicked off, China Railway Construction Corporation said Saturday.

The 266.9-km railway will start from the city of Hangzhou, crossing Shaoxing and ending in Taizhou, all cities in east China's Zhejiang Province.

The rail line is designed to run at a top speed of 350 km per hour, according to the company.

A total of 44.9 billion yuan (about 6.69 billion U.S. dollars) will be invested in the construction of the project, with private firms accounting for a 51-percent share.

Connecting the cities boasting the most remarkable growth of private economy nationwide, the rail line is expected to be a significant part of China's railway network.

China is redoubling its efforts to build the world's most extensive and sophisticated railway network. By 2020, China will have 150,000 km railway including 30,000 km high-speed railway, according to the government's plan.
 
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Economic Watch: why "China slowdown" worries are overblown
Xinhua| 2019-02-03 09:35:22
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As China posted slower growth last year, many are worried that continued downward pressure on the world's second-largest economy could drag global growth. However, a closer look at the economy would prove that the concerns over a slowdown spillover are overstated.

A more sustainable growth model, coupled with a policy package to stimulate growth, will underpin the economy in 2019, bringing abundant opportunities to global investors who stay prepared to cash in on the ever-evolving market.

Here are four reasons to remain upbeat about the Chinese economy.

MORE SUSTAINABLE GROWTH

While the 6.6-percent GDP growth rate that China registered last year was slower than that in 2017 and the double-digit growth was often seen in the past decades, investors should not overlook the fact that the growth was based on a much larger economic scale, analysts said.

The Chinese economy expanded to over 90 trillion yuan (about 13.4 trillion U.S. dollars) in 2018, almost tripling its size from 10 years ago, official data showed.

"It's true the economy is slowing, but if you look at the output added each year, it's still very impressive," said J.P. Morgan Chief China Economist Zhu Haibin.

By his calculation, even if China's growth slows to 6 percent, it still means the economy would expand by some 700 billion dollars a year, almost the size of some emerging economies.

Such economic performance has allowed the country enough room to shift from the old investment- and export-driven growth model to one that draws strength from consumption and innovation, which is more sustainable and less dependent on external factors.

While acknowledging economic headwinds, especially in the first half of 2019, Nomura Securities said in a report that the economy would likely see a rebound in the second half.

ROBUST CONSUMPTION

Although earlier indicators showed signs of weaker domestic consumption, rational observers remain quite optimistic about the sector's greater potential in driving China's economy and beyond.

The anxiety about China's consumers is largely overdone, said a report by British think tank Oxford Economics. "We remain fairly positive on China's consumption outlook."

China's retail sales will remain solid in 2019 thanks to strong consumption services and increasing growth-supporting measures despite a slowdown in the automobile sector, the report said.

The Chinese consumer continues to trade up more than down, according to the McKinsey Global Institute. Across fresh foods, alcoholic beverages, cosmetics and more, 10 times as many consumers report trading up to higher-priced goods than down.

These trends are driving increases in imports of premium goods from several Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development markets, it said.

New York-based research firm eMarketer predicted that China would become the world's biggest retail market this year with total retail sales reaching 5.63 trillion dollars.

MORE ROOM FOR INVESTMENT

Thanks to the ongoing government deleveraging campaign, the build-up of debt since the financial crisis in 2008 is now much less of a concern for the Chinese economy.

In 2018, China made steady progress in what it calls "structural deleveraging," using tailored measures to bring down leverage in different sectors.

The corporate sector, often considered the most troubled in terms of debt levels, has seen a decrease in the leverage ratio thanks to the debt-to-equity swap program, which allows companies to exchange their debt for stocks.

As most of China's debt is priced in local currency, and the debt owed by strategic sectors are often backed up by the central government, it is unlikely a financial crisis would occur, said Credit Suisse in its report on investment outlook for 2019.

With stable debt levels, the country has more room for effective investments to shore up growth. The country has vowed to ramp up efforts to fix weak areas in infrastructure and increase investment to support relocation programs.

"As we continue to implement policies this year, we can expect stronger investment data," said Ning Jizhe, head of the National Bureau of Statistics.

FURTHER OPENING-UP

China bucked the trend of the global foreign direct investment (FDI) slide in 2018 as the largest investment recipient in the world, according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).

UNCTAD's director of Investment and Enterprise James Zhan attributed more investment flows into China to factors such as further liberalization, particularly in the service and financial sectors, and intensified efforts for promoting investment in high-tech industries.

"Last year was another record high level, and the prospects for a rise of FDI into China remain optimistic," said Zhan.

Foreign businesses are set to reap more benefits from China's continued efforts to widen market access and build a better business environment this year.

One of the highlights will be a unified foreign investment law that aims to adopt a model of pre-established national treatment with a negative list and strengthened protection of property rights of companies with foreign investments.

The law will be submitted to the upcoming plenary session of the National People's Congress, which is scheduled to open on March 5.
 

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