Chinese Economics Thread

ABC78

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James Rickards is the author of Currency Wars he gives a brief history and examples of them and their effect. He also talks about the currency situation between the US and China.

Batch 2#

[video=youtube;KNSJX7axV5I]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KNSJX7axV5I&feature=relmfu[/video]

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ABC78

Junior Member
James Rickards is the author of Currency Wars he gives a brief history and examples of them and their effect. He also talks about the currency situation between the US and China.

Last one

[video=youtube;8WfcXMyPB-Q]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8WfcXMyPB-Q&feature=relmfu[/video]
 

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In the latest sign of an economic slowdown, China's customs agency announced weak foreign trade data on Tuesday, raising concerns that the world's second-largest economy is certain to have slowed further in the second quarter.

The General Administration of Customs (GAC) said China's exports rose 11.3 percent year on year to 180.21 billion U.S. dollars in June, slowing from the 15.3-percent spurt in May.

Imports increased 6.3 percent to 148.48 billion U.S. dollars, compared with a growth of 12.7 percent a month earlier.

Trade surplus jumped 42.9 percent year on year to reach 31.73 billion U.S. dollars in June, surpassing market expectations, taking the combined trade surplus to 68.92 billion U.S. dollars in the first half of this year, which was 56.4 percent larger than a year ago.

In the first six months of 2012, total foreign trade reached 1.84 trillion U.S. dollars, an increase of 8 percent year on year, lower than the 10-percent increase targeted by the government for the whole of 2012.


Meanwhile, exports rose 9.2 percent to 954.38 billion U.S. dollars during the January-June period, according to the GAC data.

Customs authorities attributed the trade slowdown to the persistent impact of the global financial crisis, saying China's trade with the European Union (EU) and Japan almost stalled in the first half of this year.

"We are still facing a more complicated and severe situation in foreign trade," GAC spokesman Zheng Yuesheng told a press conference releasing the customs data. "But China's core competitiveness in manufacturing will not see significant changes in the short term."

"If the world economy, particularly the European debt crisis, does not become worse, we will hopefully achieve the 10-percent growth goal in foreign trade this year," Zheng added.

Even though the debt crisis still bites, the EU remained China's largest trading partner in the first half of this year, with bilateral trade reaching 267.82 billion U.S. dollars, up slightly by 0.7 percent from a year ago.


But a recovery in China's exports to the United States, its second-biggest trading partner, helped the U.S. take over EU as the largest buyer of Chinese goods and service in the first half of this year, during which China's exports to the U.S. rose 13.6 percent year on year to 165.32 billion U.S. dollars, compared with 163.06 billion U.S. dollars to EU.

In the period, China imported 65.8 billion U.S. dollars worth of goods and services from the U.S., up 7.9 percent year on year, according to GAC data.

Zheng warned of a grim situation this year, saying China's exports are still threatened by trade protectionism, particularly from the United States, as well as uncertainty and instability in the world economy.

He reiterated that China aims to make its foreign trade more balanced, coordinated and sustainable, as the government has adopted measures to balance imports and exports.

"The proportion of trade surplus in our imports and exports has dropped further to 3.7 percent in the first half of this year, compared with 8.9 percent, 6.2 percent and 4.3 percent, respectively, over the past three years since 2009," he added.

The 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) held its position as China's third-largest trade partner, with China-ASEAN trade amounting to 187.82 billion U.S. dollars, up 9.7 percent year on year.

China's trade with Japan, which is still recovering from last year's devastating tsunami and massive earthquake, dipped 0.2 percent from a year earlier to 162 billion U.S. dollars in the first six months of 2012.

In a breakdown of imports, China's iron ore imports rose 9.7 percent from a year ago to 370 million metric tons in the January-June period, with crude oil imports increasing 11 percent year on year to 140 million metric tons, and coal imports surging 65.9 percent to 140 million metric tons.

Moreover, exports of machinery and electronics posted an increase of 10.5 percent to 550.25 billion U.S. dollars, accounting for 57.7 percent of total exports in the first half of this year.
 

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China's CPI grew 2.2 percent in June, down from May's 3.0 percent,
PPI fell 2.1 percent in June from a year earlier.


China's Consumer Price Index (CPI), a main gauge of inflation, grew 2.2 percent in June, down from May's 3.0 percent, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said Monday.

It eased from May's 3 percent and April's 3.4 percent.

Compared with the previous month, it edged down 0.6 percent, according to the NBS.

In the first six months of 2012, the CPI climbed 3.3 percent compared with the same period of last year year.


Food prices, which account for nearly one-third of the weighting in the calculation of China's CPI, increased 3.8 percent last month from one year earlier, down from 6.4 percent in May.

China's Producer Price Index (PPI), a main gauge of inflation at the wholesale level, fell 2.1 percent in June from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said Monday.
 

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An XCMG walking excavator

Xuzhou Construction Machinery Group (XCMG), a Chinese manufacturer of heavy machinery, concluded a deal on July 1 to acquire a 52% stake in German concrete pump maker Schwing, reports the First Financial Daily in Shanghai.

The daily said neither XCMG nor Schwing have disclosed the price of the deal.

After buying the controlling stake in Schwing, XCMG will set up a joint venture with the German company in Xuzhou, Jiangsu province, where XCMG is headquartered, to manufacture concrete pumps.

Schwing has production bases in the US, Germany, Austria, Czech Republic, India and Brazil, in addition to sales centers in France, the Netherlands, Austria, Czech Republic, Sweden and South Korea, as well as dealers in more than 100 states. By taking over Schwing, XCMG will gain easy access to the international market, while Schwing will be able to sell more of its concrete pumps and concrete mixers in China, noted First Financial Daily.

Furthermore, XCMG needs Schwing's help to operate a research and development center that it set up recently in Germany to improve its technology. The newspaper reported that XCMG head Wang Min was eager to use Schwing's technology to help his company become the leading concrete pump maker in China.

XCMG began manufacturing concrete machinery in 2008, but failed to make rapid headway in a market controlled by Sany Group and Zoomlion, which have a combined market share of 85%, with XCMG far behind in third place with a market share of only 10%, according to the newspaper. Sany at the start of this year acquired leading German concrete pump maker Putzmeister.

XCMG is planning to boost its sales to 20 billion yuan (US$3.16 billion) by 2015, to equal the market share of its two main rivals, reported the daily.
 

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Chinese companies are eyeing German machine tool group MAG, two sources close to the transaction said on Monday, in a sign appetite remains high among Chinese groups for the acquisition of German industrial know-how.

State-owned Shenyang Machine Tool confirmed it is in talks to acquire Goeppingen-based MAG, while two sources close to the situation said rivals such as Dalian (DMTG), Quier Machine Tools and YierMT Group are also looking at the asset.


Separately, private equity investors such as Triton and DBAG are also looking at the group, which last year posted sales of 900 million euros ($1.1 billion) and employs 3,500, one source said.

"After a successful evaluation phase, we are in talks with a large number of qualified potential bidders from around the globe," a MAG spokesman said.

The companies and the private equity firms declined to comment.

Chinese companies have already this year scooped up a number of German groups to gain access to technology, brands and worldwide distribution.

In April, Xuzhou Construction Machinery Group agreed to buy a majority stake in privately-held machinery manufacturer Schwing, following a similar deal a few weeks earlier, when car parts maker Hebei Lingyun acquired car door latches specialist Kiekert. In January, Sany Heavy Industry said it would buy Schwing rival Putzmeister in a 360 million euro ($443.1 million) deal, and LDK Solar invested in solar group Sunways.

GLOBAL GROUP


Were it to purchase MAG, it would not be the first investment in Germany for Shenyang's SMTCL, which ranks itself among the seven largest machine tool manufacturers in the world. In 2004, the group acquired German heavy-duty machine tool builder Schiess.


MAG was built into a global machine tool group by American investor Eng Mo Meidar, who from 2005 scooped up ailing subsidiaries of companies like steel conglomerate ThyssenKrupp and KUKA and restructured them.

In May this year, Eckhard Cordes, a former executive at Daimler and Metro (MEOG.DE), took the helm as MAG chairman to lead the recovery of the maker of machine tools for the durable-goods industry.

Goldman Sachs has been mandated to look for a buyer for MAG Europe and MAG Americas - which may be sold separately - with first bids expected by September, the MAG spokesman said, adding: "We hope to find a buyer by October."

MAG Europe, which accounts for two thirds of the group's sales, could attract a price tag of about 250 million euros, another source said. MAG IAS, which delivers 80 percent of MAG Europe's sales, posted a 2011 loss of 52.4 million euros.
 

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Two years after eclipsing Japan as the world’s second-largest economy, China on Monday stole the No. 2 spot on the Fortune 500 list of the biggest global companies from its Asian rival.

In its annual revenue rankings, Fortune magazine said that China overtook Japan for the first time, landing 73 companies on the list compared with Japan’s 68 companies.
Anglo-Dutch energy giant Royal Dutch Shell retook the top spot, knocking off U.S. retail titan Wal-Mart from a two-year reign with 2011 revenues of $484.5 billion, up 28.1% from 2010.

The remaining members of the top 10 are, in descending order: ExxonMobil (U.S.); Wal-Mart Stores (U.S.); Britain’s BP; Chinese companies Sinopec Group, China National Petroleum and State Grid; Chevron (U.S.); ConocoPhillips (U.S.) and Japan’s Toyota Motor.

“Although the U.S. still hosts the lion’s share of Global 500 corporations, no country has lost more companies during the last decade. There are 132 U.S.-headquartered businesses on this year’s list, down from 197 a decade ago,” the U.S. business magazine said.

The rankings and composition of the list reflected the shifting global landscape as the United States faces mounting competition from foreign rivals.

China added 12 companies to the list this year, while the number of European firms fell to 161 amid the eurozone debt crisis, from 172 in 2011. “One of the more remarkable shifts has been in the number of Chinese companies on the list,” Fortune said, pointing out there were only 11 Chinese firms on the Global 500 in 2002, while the number of Japanese companies has fallen from 88.

Still, the magazine said, Tokyo hosts 48 Global 500 company headquarters, more than any other city. “Despite the Fukushima disaster and two decades of slow growth, it’s way too soon to count Japan out.”

Eight energy businesses dominated the Fortune 500’s top 10. Commercial banks accounted for the second-largest industry on the Global 500 and the auto industry was in third place.

“Despite financial turmoil in Europe and disasters in Japan, the world’s largest corporations had record profits and revenues in 2011,” Fortune said.

In total, the Global 500 companies posted record revenues of $29.5 trillion, up 13.2% over 2010.

Corporations around the world “continue to be adept at wringing productivity out of their workers,” Fortune said.

Total employment at the Global 500 increased by 4.9%, to 60.7 million, last year, but revenue per worker grew at almost twice that rate, climbing to $463,212.

“Total profits rose seven percent, to $1.6 trillion, roughly equal to the gross domestic product of India,” Fortune said.

Two Indian companies made the top 100 list: state-run Indian Oil, ranked at 83, and Reliance Industries, in the 99th slot.

Apple shot up 56 spots from last year, landing at number 55. The California-based maker of the hot-selling iPhone, iPad and other gadgets posted 2011 revenues of almost $108.3 billion, a 66% rise over 2010.
 

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Chinese banks successfully secured one-third of the total global revenue last year, putting the uncertainty of US and European debt crisis of the past two years to rest. This is a massive increase from the banks' 4% share in 2007, reports UK-based The Bank magazine.

The top three banks by revenue are: Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank and Bank of China.

They have seized the opportunity to cultivate the market abandoned by European banks in a strangehold from the European crisis, said the magazine. The pre-tax profit of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China reached US$43.2 billion last year, followed by China Construction Bank and Bank of China with US$34.8 billion and US$26.8 billion, respectively.

US-based JPMorgan Chase ranked fourth with US$26.7 billion and UK-based HSBC topped the European banks with US$21.9 billion last year. The National Bank of Greece, the largest bank in the country, lost the most among global banks by operation with a deficit of US$17.4 billion, followed by Belgium-based Dexia bank.

The magazine said that the revenue of banks in the eurozone accounted for 6% of total global revenue, a gaping chasm compared with 46% five years ago.
 

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Chinese firms gain more clout in global auto parts industry

For a glimpse into how the US auto industry has been dramatically globalized since the 2008 financial crisis, take a look at who Chrysler has been working with lately.

The Michigan-based automaker gets its antennae from Taizhou Suzhong Antenna Group in Jiangsu province. Parts that require rubber are flown in from Zhongding Holding and Ningbo Tuopu Group in Anhui province. Steering system parts? They are from Nexteer, which General Motors Co sold to Pacific Century Automotive Systems Co Ltd - an affiliate of the Beijing government that was formed by the Tempo Group in Zhejiang province - in 2010 for $420 million.

Pan Ren, an engineer at the Chrysler Research and Development Center in Detroit for a decade, has seen the recent changes. He said he noticed that not only are more and more Chrysler spare parts being supplied by Chinese companies, but that many US spare parts manufacturers are being run by Chinese executives.

For Pan and for countless observers of the decline of the US and European auto industries, the recent cooperation is not only an indication that Chinese auto parts manufacturers are getting a leg up in the global industry, but that the mergers and acquisitions have been key to fueling an economic comeback for Western countries.

"The machinery industry is the foundation of a country's auto industry, especially the spare parts industry," Pan said.

After the financial crisis of 2008, spare parts companies in the West were on the verge of bankruptcy. Many Chinese auto parts manufacturers that China Daily spoke to saw this crucial time as an opportunity to merge into the global supply chain by acquiring these struggling overseas companies.

There are no statistics available about the number of acquisitions, but many major transactions are notable.

In 2009, Zhejiang Geely Holding Group acquired supplier Drivetrain Systems International, an automatic transmission supplier based in Australia, for A$70 million ($56 million). Last year, Beijing Hainachuan Automotive Parts Co Ltd purchased Dutch company Inalfa Roof Systems Group BV, the world's second-largest auto roof system supplier. In June, Joyson Holdings - a company based in Ningbo, Zhejiang province - bought out German auto parts supplier Preh GmbH.

Ravi Ramamurti, a professor of international business and strategy at Northeastern University in Boston, said that investments from Chinese companies provide a lift for struggling US companies.

"They have the momentum and the financial strength (to rescue other firms)," he said. "The likelihood of a US investor doing the same is dim."

Last year, revenue from Chinese auto parts exports reached 46.63 billion yuan ($7.34 billion), a 27 percent increase from the previous year, according to the China Automotive Technology & Research Center. Because of the growth in exports from China, governments in Europe and the United States have imposed stringent regulations on China's exports of spare parts.

From the beginning of the year, the US government launched several anti-dumping and anti-subsidy probes targeting Chinese exports, largely because trade unions in the US have complained that the increasing exports from China "have stolen thousands of job opportunities" in the US.

Experts said this is part of the reason why Chinese companies have looked to acquisition opportunities in the US and Europe - they want to be exempted from high tariffs.

Wanxiang Group, the largest auto parts supplier by assets in China, was one of the first to get on the mergers and acquisitions trail. As early as 1994, the company established a US unit, Wanxiang America, in Chicago. It has gradually grown into a major supplier of parts to General Motors, Chrysler and Ford. The company has since acquired 27 factories in US states such as Illinois, Michigan and Missouri as of April. It also owns eight factories in Mexico. Last year, Wanxiang America posted revenue of $2.3 billion and employed 5,600 workers in North America.

"There are many opportunities here despite the fact that the economy is sluggish in the United States and Europe," said Ni Pin, president of Wanxiang America. "Especially in 2008 and 2009 when auto assets were underestimated, it was a good time for us to acquire."

The products produced by Wanxiang's factories are sold in both the Chinese and US markets, and Ni is also introducing these companies to the Chinese market, where Wanxiang is obviously familiar with Chinese laws and regulations.

The acquisition of the damper and brake division of Delphi Automotive Plc, a multinational automotive parts manufacturing company headquartered in Michigan, by Beijing West Industries Group is another example of a Chinese company connecting with the global auto supply chain. In late 2009, BWI spent nearly $100 million to acquire assets from Delphi.

"Delphi has global footprints and, by acquiring Delphi assets, we reached customers around the world," said Jeff Zhao, a senior executive at BWI.

One of the first things BWI did after the acquisition was set up a plant in China to produce dampers as well as send groups of engineers from Beijing to Poland, the site of a Delphi damper plant.

"The most valuable asset we have acquired are people," Zhao said, referring to the experienced engineers and managers absorbed from Delphi, many of whom have more than 20 years of industry experience.

BWI now has factories in Poland, the United Kingdom, Mexico, India, and in China in Shanghai and Beijing. Its engineering centers are located in Poland, France, the US, Japan and China. The company's clients include BMW, Audi, Porsche, GM, Honda and Harley-Davidson.

But John Zeng, an executive at LMC Automotive, a research company that tracks the auto industry, said the Chinese spare parts companies will not thrive and catch up with its Western counterparts merely through mergers and acquisitions.


"No companies will sell their advanced technologies to other companies, such as mobile electronics, and what we got are relatively marginal technologies," he said.

Chen Kangren, president of China Auto Parts & Accessories Corp, said at the 2012 China Automotive Forum in April that only 30 percent of the parts, such as the engine and gearbox, are key components and only a few multinationals have the technology to produce these parts.

"The other 70 percent make low-value-added parts and hundreds of thousands of companies are competing for this market. As a result, profits are very slim."

Most Chinese companies fall into this category. In 2011, no Chinese supplier made the world's top 100 spare parts supplier list."Now only 5 percent of Chinese companies are first-tier suppliers (for US manufacturers)," Chen said.

John Shen, a partner at Roland Berger Strategy Consultants, said that producing key components is one major sector that Chinese companies need to make better progress in. He disagrees with Zeng and thinks that mergers and acquisitions are actually the wiser approach.

"Some spare parts companies have got clear strategies and gradually gained the distribution networks and brands," Shen said.

Zhao from BWI said the company is trying to improve its competitiveness through various improvements such as trimming costs.

Another issue is that unlike Chinese original equipment manufacturers, or OEMs, which are protected by the government through a regulation that foreign capital cannot exceed a 50 percent share in a joint venture, Chinese spare parts companies don't have this shield and face competition from foreign companies that do not need to link up with a domestic company. Currently, major parts suppliers in the world such as Bosch and Delphi occupy 70 to 80 percent of the market, according to the China Auto Parts & Accessories Corp.

Zeng said the auto spare parts industry depends heavily on domestic OEMs and that they should naturally have a link to domestic carmakers. Growth for Japanese spare parts companies, for instance, is mainly attributed to Toyota, while Bosch has strong ties with German carmakers.

"The local companies should invest more in high-tech areas such as mobile electronics. Since the cost is very high, few spare parts companies are investing in that area, which in turn excludes Chinese OEMs from the core technology," Zeng said.
 
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