Chinese Economics Thread

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The China-Australia free trade agreement is expected to be signed this year, which will create benefits for both countries, said Kevin Rudd, a member of Australia's parliament. "(What) I would like to do is see the deal signed this year, the 40th anniversary of the China-Australia diplomatic relationship," said Rudd, calling it a "good way to have a birthday party".

Rudd, who is also a former prime minister of Australia, spoke with China Daily on the sidelines of the 2012 APEC China CEO Forum on Thursday.Bilateral talks on an FTA began in May 2005. This March, the 18th round of talks was held in Australia.

"It's too long, and both sides have recognized that," said Rudd. "I believe that because China is the second-largest economy in the world, and the largest in Asia, and Australia is the fourth-largest in Asia, we should overcome the relatively minor differences."

He added: "What we will produce as a result will be bigger than anything we imagine." Estimates from Australia are that a bilateral FTA would help generate additional revenues of A$146 billion ($145.5 billion) for the country in the next two decades.


"China's concern is about Australia's agriculture, and China thinks we are a big agriculture country", and the opening of the market would harm Chinese interests, "but frankly, I don't believe the argument is accurate", said Rudd.

He said that "Australian agriculture exports, by Chinese domestic standards, are quite small, and therefore, the ability for Australian agriculture to disrupt the Chinese market is very, very limited".

The benefit is the "FTA will liberalize the investment relationship between China and Australia, and (mean a) much larger flow of investment and capital from China to Australia as well".


Early this year, Premier Wen Jiabao said in the annual government work report that China will further pursue FTA negotiations with countries including Australia.

China is Australia's largest commodity trade partner, and Australia is China's eighth-largest trade partner.Australia is also China's single largest fund and investment destination worldwide. "If we have a free trade agreement, I believe we can take a $100-billion plus relationship and turn it into something bigger again," said Rudd. "It's good for China, and good for us, and more jobs for either side."

China is facing the risk of a further economic slowdown, which many fear will hurt the economy of Australia, also the largest supplier of iron ore for China.
 

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The volume of trade between China and Russia in 2012 will hit 90 billion U.S. dollars, close to the 100-billion target for 2015 set during Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to China early this month, a Russian trade representative predicted on Friday.

Bilateral trade in the first five months of this year has been growing steadily, with an increase of 20 percent year on year, the fastest among all China's major trade partners, according to Sergey Tsyplakov, trade representative of the Russian Federation in China.

"I think the goals of reaching 100 billion U.S. dollars in bilateral trade volume by 2015 and 200 billion U.S. dollars by 2020 are completely within reach," Tsyplakov said during the opening ceremony of the Russia Business Day in Harbin, capital of northeast China's Heilongjiang province.

"We are happy to see that border trade and the cooperation between local governments are more vibrant than before and have become an important part of bilateral trade," agreed Zhong Shan, China's vice minister of commerce, at the event.
 

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On May 8, China imposed extra import duties on stainless steel seamless tubes imported from the European Union and Japan, saying the tubes damaged the Chinese machinery they were installed in. The Chinese move came less than two months after the EU and Japan, along with the U.S., went to the World Trade Organization to challenge China’s curbs on exports of its rare earths, scarce minerals that are vital to so many industrial processes. The complaint argued that China’s restrictions on exports of the minerals would force multinationals to set up more factories on the mainland

On March 22, China announced it would impose anti-dumping duties on photographic paper imported from the U.S., the EU, and Japan—nine days after the U.S., the EU, and Japan lodged their WTO complaint about China’s rare-earth policy.

Three trade disputes, three very different cases. Yet trade lawyers detect a pattern in the Chinese action. “What I find really troubling is that the Chinese have gotten into this pattern of filing tit-for-tat cases,” says Stephen Kho, a lawyer at Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld in Washington who was principal attorney at the U.S. Trade Representative’s office on China enforcement. Since joining the WTO in 2001, China’s dealings with the group’s members have evolved from an initial willingness to make its laws comply with the global rules of commerce to a more aggressive stance. “They have no problem saying, ‘If you’re going to hit us, we’ll hit you back,’ ” says Kho.

To those facing the backlash, these retaliatory acts do little to resolve the original dispute—the wrangle over rare earths goes on, for example—and China’s moves tax the overloaded system at the WTO, which is supposed to resolve disagreements among its members while otherwise normal trading relationships go on. Kho thinks China risks sparking a trade war with its counterpunch strategy.

To others, the mainland’s negotiators are simply learning how to play the game. “China has come of age,” says Konstantinos Adamantopoulos, a partner at Holman Fenwick Willan in Brussels who has advised China on several WTO cases. Although China had to relax more than 7,000 trade barriers to join the WTO, its economy quadrupled in size and exports almost quintupled. Still, China remains wedded to policies that protect and promote domestic technologies and state-owned enterprises, stoking accusations that it’s not playing fair.

In its first years of membership, China mostly avoided confrontations. Its first real experience with WTO disputes came in 2004, when the U.S. complained about a value-added tax the Chinese imposed on imported integrated circuits. The two governments negotiated a settlement. China’s reluctance to file formal complaints changed in 2006, when it was targeted by the U.S., the EU, and Canada over imports of car parts and suffered its first legal defeat at the WTO. Three U.S. complaints followed in the first four months of 2007, and China, by then “more confident and comfortable” with the WTO machinery, according to Kho, responded later that year by challenging U.S. duties on coated paper imports.

“China paid extraordinarily close attention to dispute settlement proceedings, watching wherever it could and examining in detail how the process worked and what the results were,” says Alan Wolff, a deputy U.S. trade representative in the Carter administration who is now senior counsel in the Washington office of McKenna Long & Aldridge.

U.S. lawyers in particular have helped China learn the ropes. Three Washington law firms—Sidley Austin, Steptoe & Johnson, and Hogan Lovells US—that have offices in Beijing are among the Chinese government’s favorites for helping it litigate at the WTO. “If it’s a really important or technical trade issue and they’re a first party, I’m not aware of a case where they didn’t hire a foreign lawyer and encourage or require them to team up with a local or Chinese lawyer,” says Daniel Crosby, a partner at King & Spalding in Geneva.

China’s involvement in WTO disputes has escalated since 2008. The government complained seven times between September 2008 and February 2011—twice against the EU, five times against the U.S. The EU has lodged five complaints against China since March 2008, while the U.S. has filed eight, including the latest one on rare earths. The Chinese say that in recessionary times trade frictions increase, and they’re trying to keep global commerce flowing. “China is concerned with the growing trade protectionism in the world,” Yi Xiaozhun, China’s ambassador to the WTO, said in an e-mail. “This trend could be reflected by some WTO members’ unfair and discriminatory application” of anti-dumping and anti-subsidy measures.

“There was a honeymoon between China and the WTO, and now it’s over,” says Ari Afilalo, a professor of international trade at Rutgers School of Law. “Western economies have been looking to China to open up more, and they’ve encountered tremendous resistance.”
 

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China announced Monday that it will contribute 43 billion U.S. dollars to the recapitalization of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) at the G20 summit being held in Mexico.

he summit discussed the issue of boosting funding for the IMF, and the G20 leaders agreed that in order to address the risks and challenges the world economy is currently faced with, it is necessary to ensure that the IMF is sufficiently capitalized.

China has always made it clear that it will not be absent in IMF recapitalization, and holds that the recapitalization has to be based mainly on quotas and the top imperative thing is to implement the IMF's 2010 quota and governance reform package.

China has repeatedly expressed the hope that relevant countries should go through the approval process of the plan as soon as possible in order to ensure that the reform package will be effective before the 2012 IMF annual meetings in October.
 

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China will roll out "concrete measures" to stimulate consumption by boosting efficiency and slashing the cost of logistics, said Huang Hai, former assistant minister of commerce.

The moves, to be announced at the national circulation conference in late June or early July that will focus on the movement of goods, are part of efforts to prevent the economy from slowing further amid the deepening crisis in Europe.

The conference aims to address supply chain issues concerning logistics and transportation. Getting goods to the market quicker and cheaper will be a key factor in boosting consumer spending.

"More than 20 ministries and departments, led by the Ministry of Commerce, are ready for the two-day conference, a strategically important conference for the government this year," Huang said.

A draft of a document detailing measures on improving efficiency, reducing logistical costs and increasing consumer spending is awaiting government approval, Huang said.

The conference, originally set for May, was moved back as the government and Premier Wen Jiabao "attach great importance to it and expect to issue substantial policies" during it, said Huang, who helped draft the document.

The draft was finished by a team of officials and experts led by the Ministry of Finance in May and was based on results of a research done by 20 government departments and ministries before Spring Festival.

Zhao Ping, a consumption specialist from the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation under the Ministry of Commerce, told China Daily that major problems facing logistics include "difficulties in financing and limited networks and infrastructure".

"Relevant policies will probably center on expanding fiscal expenditure and reducing taxes and fees in different logistical sectors," she said.

"They could include easier access to financing, preferential policies for small and medium-sized enterprises, expanding logistical networks, reducing fees and providing subsidies for expanding storage capacity."


Expenditure on logistics, including transport, storage and management fees, has risen rapidly. Logistical costs, as part of the nation's GDP in 2010, reached 17.8 percent, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. That was higher than the 10 percent average in developed nations.

The cost of moving goods to the market added to domestic consumer prices, and this has dampened consumer confidence.
It is obvious that reducing costs passed on to the consumer will increase consumption, Zhao said. "This is an efficient way to stimulate domestic consumption."

The government recently launched a series of policies to promote consumer spending.

It pledged last month to allocate 26.5 billion yuan ($4.2 billion) to subsidize purchases of energy-saving household appliances and 6 billion yuan to boost sales of energy-efficient vehicles.

The Ministry of Finance said on June 5 China is offering subsidies up to 400 yuan per unit to buyers of energy-saving water heaters, refrigerators and washing machines.

More measures are under way, and some will be released during the coming conference, Huang said. "It's not a problem of whether to stimulate domestic consumption or not, but a problem of how to do it and in which sectors," he said.

He also told China Daily that purchases of furniture and affordable homes are next on the list.

China has stepped up efforts to build 36 million units of affordable housing by 2015.

The government recently lowered interest rates by 25 basis points. Economists predicted economic growth is expected to accelerate in the third quarter as policy easing takes off.


Huang said that stimulating domestic consumption is a more direct way to boost the economy than a stimulus plan.

Wen said recently that the government will implement fiscal policy to bolster growth, prompting economists to forecast stimulus spending.
 

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-The total industrial output value of China's shipbuilding industry reached 240.6 billion yuan ($38.2 billion) in the first five months of 2012, but the growth rate was only 0.7 percent year-on-year, the China Association of the National Shipbuilding Industry said on Monday on its website.

China's shipbuilders finished 22.53 million dead weight tons of shipbuilding orders in the first five months this year, a decrease of 10.1 percent year-on-year. New ship orders amount to 9.54 million DWT, a fall of 47.3 percent year-on-year.

China's shipping industry faces a severe test in today's sluggish global market, China Securities Journal said on Tuesday.

The traditional shipbuilding industry is being hit hardest, according to the association. The ship equipment industry has seen growth of 27.1 percent. The marine engineering equipment manufacturing industry grew by 11.4 percent
 
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CHINA'S trade expanded at a relatively slow pace in the first five months, but the growth target of 10 percent in 2012 is still achievable, the Ministry of Commerce said yesterday.

"Based on the information we have from some companies and some regions, trade in June will pick up at the pace seen in May," Shen Danyang, a ministry spokesman, said at a press conference.

Trade activities gained 7.7 percent year on year in the first five months to US$1.5 trillion, giving a trade surplus of US$37.9 billion. But the gain was under the annual growth goal of 10 percent for this year.


"A contraction in the first four months steepened on rising costs, shrinking external demand and deteriorating trade environment. The pickup in May has shown encouraging signs that the measures introduced since last year have achieved preliminary and positive results," Shen said.

He is confident "China can meet the trade growth target for 2012."

Dariusz Kowalczyk, senior economist at Credit Agricole SA, warned in a report that the situation in Europe is particularly worrisome, "which will likely contribute to trade subtracting 1-1.5 percentage points from 2012 growth."

Even Shao Ning, vice director at State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, cautioned state-owned enterprises to prepare for a wintry period that will last three to five years as the economy contracts after 30 years of rapid growth.

But Shen said the situation is not that severe based on the trade and business data the commerce ministry has compiled.

"Of course the companies should prepare for the worse. But I have confidence in the country to get through the woes, just like how we conquered the global financial crisis years ago," he said.
 

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China's outbound direct investment in non-financial sectors surged 40.2 percent year-on-year to $28.52 billion during the first five months, the Ministry of Commerce announced Tuesday.

Of all Chinese ODI during January-May period, about 39.3 percent, worth about $11.2 billion, went into mergers and acquisitions, MOC spokesman Shen Danyang said at a regular press briefing.

In the first five months, Chinese investors made investments in 1,709 overseas companies based in 115 countries and regions.

The flow of ODI into Hong Kong, the United States and the European Union dramatically increased, up 50.9 percent, 45.9 percent and 23.6 percent, respectively, Shen added.

As of the end of May 2012, China's non-financial ODI amounted to $350.6 billion.


According to the MOC, the accomplished turnover of China's overseas contracted projects reached $7.55 billion in May, up 1.8 percent year-on-year.

The value of newly-signed contracts hit $8.53 billion last month, down 30.8 percent from one year earlier.
 

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James Rickards is the author of Currency Wars he gives a brief history and examples of them and their effect. He also talks about the currency situation between the US and China.

[video=youtube;AZrQilGtzP0]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AZrQilGtzP0[/video]

[video=youtube;KurI8domdnc]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KurI8domdnc&feature=relmfu[/video]
 
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