Chinese Economics Thread

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
If Chinese stock market is a bubble, how about the US stock markets?

The US stock market is already a massive bubble, held up by massive fiat currency printing and the promise of a vaccine. Besides not everyone is high value. You think United Airlines, Hertz and JC Penney are good stocks to buy? The bubble in US stock market is also held up disproportionately by tech stocks, especially FAANG.

The Chinese stock market is a bubble but there is no massive printing to hold up the bubble, so it would naturally deflate. Cycles of rises and dips are to be naturally expected and this is healthier for stock market in the long run. Dips provide you with buying opportunities. It should be added that the recent falls also sounds much like profit taking to me.

However, Netease and Tencent prices are still at six month high and so is Alibaba.

I am trying to see who is the equivalent of FAANG to China. So far I use Tencent and Netease as barometer.
 

hullopilllw

Junior Member
Registered Member
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Q2 3.2% is definitely good headline number. Keep in mind that China is also the world's largest manufacturing nation, so it did disproportionately benefit from the crash in oil and other raw material prices, which helps keep costs down. I expect Q3 to not improve that much actually, maybe in the mid ~4.5% growth... since raw material prices will begin rising and most economies are still slow.
3

China's 3.2% figure is probably the only positive digit out of all major economies.
 

hullopilllw

Junior Member
Registered Member
The US stock market is already a massive bubble, held up by massive fiat currency printing and the promise of a vaccine. Besides not everyone is high value. You think United Airlines, Hertz and JC Penney are good stocks to buy? The bubble in US stock market is also held up disproportionately by tech stocks, especially FAANG.

The Chinese stock market is a bubble but there is no massive printing to hold up the bubble, so it would naturally deflate. Cycles of rises and dips are to be naturally expected and this is healthier for stock market in the long run. Dips provide you with buying opportunities. It should be added that the recent falls also sounds much like profit taking to me.

However, Netease and Tencent prices are still at six month high and so is Alibaba.

I am trying to see who is the equivalent of FAANG to China. So far I use Tencent and Netease as barometer.

Tencent.
Alibaba
Baidu

Upcoming additions :
Btyedance
Ant Group(Fintech spinoff from Alibaba), going to IPOs this year in HK at valuation of $200b USD. A core player in the internationalisation of DC/EP.
JD

UBS review that the chinese stock at current level is a new holding ground, meaning there might only be a slight correction before the bull continues. In fact, China A Share's Mutual Funds by major investment banks like UBS and JPMorgan are putting Chinese stock as "overweight" now, seeing major capital inflow into their AUM to stay in china market for the long term.
 

hullopilllw

Junior Member
Registered Member
The Chinese stock market has been on a rise for a while and so there is some fears of that its bubbling and a correction is up soon.

Remember they don't massively print and pumps trillions in currency to prop up this market.

Which is what I admire about the Chinese economy. They do not require massive printing to sustain growth in the FIRE sectors.

Why Because of the Chinese's inherently high saving rate.
 

hullopilllw

Junior Member
Registered Member
Are they going to impose sanctions on Chinese companies dealing with Iran?

Most big chinese tech firms are going to end up in the list anyway, at the rate at which US State Dept is going(400+ in the list now).
You can add in all those that are building bridges, roads, tolls, ports and other heavy infrastructures along the Belt Road Initiative router.

Over time the effect will be like insulin resistance. Just like my nation is going on with the procurement of Su-35 despite US open threat of economic sanctions.
 

KIENCHIN

Junior Member
Registered Member
Most big chinese tech firms are going to end up in the list anyway, at the rate at which US State Dept is going(400+ in the list now).
You can add in all those that are building bridges, roads, tolls, ports and other heavy infrastructures along the Belt Road Initiative router.

Over time the effect will be like insulin resistance. Just like my nation is going on with the procurement of Su-35 despite US open threat of economic sanctions.
I had thought your nation had cave in ti US pressure and is buying the F35, if I am not wrong.
 

hullopilllw

Junior Member
Registered Member
I had thought your nation had cave in ti US pressure and is buying the F35, if I am not wrong.

Nah, Indonesia did ask for F-35, but US laughed it off and offer F-16 instead. Indonesia is not really a nation US can trust to handle F-35, with the inherent conflict of the West and Islam world.

Offering F-16 is an insult to the Indonesia government. Not forgetting the occasional arm trade embargo when the US feels like it, usually on the ground on human rights violations etc.

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KIENCHIN

Junior Member
Registered Member
Nah, Indonesia did ask for F-35, but US laughed it off and offer F-16 instead. Indonesia is not really a nation US can trust to handle F-35, with the inherent conflict of the West and Islam world.

Offering F-16 is an insult to the Indonesia government. Not forgetting the occasional arm trade embargo when the US feels like it, usually on the ground on human rights violations etc.

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Thought so, fake news then. Wouldn’t think your neighbour would like them having the F35, terima kasih
 

Tyler

Captain
Registered Member
Nah, Indonesia did ask for F-35, but US laughed it off and offer F-16 instead. Indonesia is not really a nation US can trust to handle F-35, with the inherent conflict of the West and Islam world.

Offering F-16 is an insult to the Indonesia government. Not forgetting the occasional arm trade embargo when the US feels like it, usually on the ground on human rights violations etc.

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China should offer the J-10 to Indonesia.
 
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