I'm pretty sure the American economy will drop by more than 10% this year. Mathematically it's not hard.
( -5% + -35% + Quarter#3 + Quarter#4 ) / 4 = -10%
Third Quarter GDP Optimistic Scenario
Third Quarter: 0%
Fourth Quarter: 0%
=> -10% annual GDP
Third Quarter GDP Decline Scenario
Third Quarter: -5%
Fourth Quarter: +5%
=> -10% annual GDP
My Guess
Third Quarter: -5%
Fourth Quarter: -5%
=> -12.5% annual GDP
I would be highly surprised to see third quarter GPD positive. July almost certainly has negative growth. Coronavirus could start declining in August. Or, considering that America is doing nothing to stop it, it could more likely plateau.
Fourth quarter GPD could be positive. It depends on whether or not there will be a second wave as the weather cools off. I would expect a second wave. That means negative fourth quarter GDP.
Its weird . China beats gdp expectation but stock market is tanking.View attachment 61811
Its weird . China beats gdp expectation but stock market is tanking.View attachment 61811
The Chinese stock market has been on a rise for a while and so there is some fears of that its bubbling and a correction is up soon.
Remember they don't massively print and pumps trillions in currency to prop up this market.
If Chinese stock market is a bubble, how about the US stock markets?The Chinese stock market has been on a rise for a while and so there is some fears of that its bubbling and a correction is up soon.
Remember they don't massively print and pumps trillions in currency to prop up this market.