Chinese Economics Thread

L

LesAdieux

Junior Member
Hadoren said:
I'm pretty sure the American economy will drop by more than 10% this year. Mathematically it's not hard.

( -5% + -35% + Quarter#3 + Quarter#4 ) / 4 = -10%

Third Quarter GDP Optimistic Scenario
Third Quarter: 0%
Fourth Quarter: 0%

=> -10% annual GDP

Third Quarter GDP Decline Scenario
Third Quarter: -5%
Fourth Quarter: +5%

=> -10% annual GDP

My Guess
Third Quarter: -5%
Fourth Quarter: -5%

=> -12.5% annual GDP

I would be highly surprised to see third quarter GPD positive. July almost certainly has negative growth. Coronavirus could start declining in August. Or, considering that America is doing nothing to stop it, it could more likely plateau.

Fourth quarter GPD could be positive. It depends on whether or not there will be a second wave as the weather cools off. I would expect a second wave. That means negative fourth quarter GDP.
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not the right way to calculate the US GDP, though simple stuff, it can confuse many people.

the -35% drop in Q2 GDP comes like this: it assume Q2/Q1=0.9, that's a 10% drop (seasonal adjusted), then annualize it: 0.9^4=65%, similarly the -5% is an annualized rate from a 1.2% Q1/Q4 drop.
 
L

LesAdieux

Junior Member
just in: China's GDP grew 3.2% in the Q2 of 2020.

China uses the year over year approach, 3.2% is the growth over Q2 of 2019, the Q2/Q1 growth rate is 11.5%, if use the american way to annualize it, you'll get 54.56%
 
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j17wang

j17wang

Senior Member
Registered Member
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Tam said:
The Chinese stock market has been on a rise for a while and so there is some fears of that its bubbling and a correction is up soon.

Remember they don't massively print and pumps trillions in currency to prop up this market.
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Q2 3.2% is definitely good headline number. Keep in mind that China is also the world's largest manufacturing nation, so it did disproportionately benefit from the crash in oil and other raw material prices, which helps keep costs down. I expect Q3 to not improve that much actually, maybe in the mid ~4.5% growth... since raw material prices will begin rising and most economies are still slow.
 
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