China's SCS Strategy Thread

[Jono]

the entire western foreign policy is built upon the philosophy of " if you can't fight them, join them ".
this is purely a robbers' mindset, no principle and very self serving.
the moment Uncle Sam reckons that a war with China is not beneficial, or the cost too high, then it will suddenly and without notice shake hands with China and call it quits. Woe to those small vassal states who jumped on Uncle Sam's bandwagon only to find themselves abandoned on the tracks.
Japan has 2 faces, chrysanthemum and the sword. China remembers only too well the sword part of Japan and will not hesitate to return the favours by fighting the next Sino-Japan war, this time on Japanese soils. Oh man, I shudder at the thought of the revenge China will exact on Japan for the past 100 years of atrocity perpetuated by Japan on Chinese soils and populace.
so my opinion is that when push comes to shove, Japan will withdraw from the Quad at the last minute.

 

[ansy1968]

@Jono @voyager1

Bro So true, they had accumulated a lot of wealth with the current system they benefited why change the status quo and go for the unknown? its so shocking to me why the American is willingly destroying the international institution they help created. Trump set the stage and there is no going back, MAGA will be in the American domestic scene for at least a decade and like Rome before them the enemy is within among themselves , the American political and economic elites are fighting each other for power and wealth. Now its allies may have other view they're not suicidal they are rational actor so this so called allies of the willing is facade each has its own interest to protect the only exception is Australia.

Yes honestly Obama was far far superior to Trump. He did the TPP which if signed would be a masterstroke and would heavily pressure China to open its economy prematurely and then western companies.would dominate china's internal market. Obama was also smart as he recognised that the middle east wars were a disaster but unfortunately he couldnt pull out.

It has the same conceptual timeline with RCEP and RCEP endure cause its beneficial to all, China will join the TPP cause she is not afraid of the challenges, the Chinese WTO entry is an example, it forces the Chinese to open its market to a certain degree and look what happen afterward, it forces them to reform and that had a multiplier effect. For me complacency is what made the west weak.

 

[hashtagpls]

Well Civil war is never a good thing especially in a nuclear capable state, so i hope that it never happens.

On the other hand regarding your point about revolt.if a war happens with China i dont think that will happen. Manufacturing consent is a powerful tool to fool the masses and i suppose you see it in full force now and the strategic confrontation has started only in recent years. So i would bet that if this accelerating trajectory continues, i expect that by 2027-2030 people themselves will want to war themselves.

Never forget that the human brain is wired the same as when we were living in caves, and that propaganda in all of its forms is the most powerful tool the government has to control people and it is especially potent in the Information Era we are living now

white americans don't seem to have any issues with advocating a civil war in nuclear capable China, just as they fantasied about civil war in nuclear armed Russia, as the countless tom clancy and tom clancy inspired video games like Modern Warfare can attest.

In fact, a lot of the court eunuchs in the Beltway are advocating for just a "limited" nuclear war with china, since they presume nuclear fallout will only impact the orientals and not the pristine white nations.

 

[voyager1]

@Jono @voyager1

Bro So true, they had accumulated a lot of wealth with the current system they benefited why change the status quo and go for the unknown? its so shocking to me why the American is willingly destroying the international institution they help created. Trump set the stage and there is no going back, MAGA will be in the American domestic scene for at least a decade and like Rome before them the enemy is within among themselves , the American political and economic elites are fighting each other for power and wealth. Now its allies may have other view they're not suicidal they are rational actor so this so called allies of the willing is facade each has its own interest to protect the only exception is Australia.

Yes honestly Obama was far far superior to Trump. He did the TPP which if signed would be a masterstroke and would heavily pressure China to open its economy prematurely and then western companies.would dominate china's internal market. Obama was also smart as he recognised that the middle east wars were a disaster but unfortunately he couldnt pull out.

It has the same conceptual timeline with RCEP and RCEP endure cause its beneficial to all, China will join the TPP cause she is not afraid of the challenges, the Chinese WTO entry is an example, it forces the Chinese to open its market to a certain degree and look what happen afterward, it forces them to reform and that had a multiplier effect. For me complacency is what made the west weak.

Yes Xi actually announcing that he wants to join the TPP was a real shocker to me. There could be many possible reasons and most probably a combination of them to this but these are the reasons from a casual reading:

1st Xi wants to avoid US and allies to surround China economically

2nd To better integrate regional countries together and by trade bind then together so that year by year US influence would ultimately disappear from the region

3rd Preemptive strike from Xi, maybe he recognises that Biden want to join TPP but he cant due to domestics politics, so China requests to join now that it is relatively easy before US joins and stonewalls everything, alternative maybe he want to join first so that he can play the ultimate UNO reverse card and exclude US from joining ( can you imagine the US designed agreement allows China to join and then block US from its own trade deals )

4th Xi wants to join because he gains a seat at the table and allows China to set standards and shape rules of regional trade. This is important because TPP is actually better than RCEP

 

[Jono]

Yes Xi actually announcing that he wants to join the TPP was a real shocker to me. There could be many possible reasons and most probably a combination of them to this but these are the reasons from a casual reading:

1st Xi wants to avoid US and allies to surround China economically

2nd To better integrate regional countries together and by trade bind then together so that year by year US influence would ultimately disappear from the region

3rd Preemptive strike from Xi, maybe he recognises that Biden want to join TPP but he cant due to domestics politics, so China requests to join now that it is relatively easy before US joins and stonewalls everything, alternative maybe he want to join first so that he can play the ultimate UNO reverse card and exclude US from joining ( can you imagine the US designed agreement allows China to join and then block US from its own trade deals )

4th Xi wants to join because he gains a seat at the table and allows China to set standards and shape rules of regional trade. This is important because TPP is actually better than RCEP

China is learning the western trick, if you can't fight them, join them. Joining the TPP and now its alternative CPTPP will enable China to have a say at the table, true.
But the biggest hurdle for China joining the TPP/CPTPP is the issue of State Own Enterprises.

 

[ansy1968]

Yes Xi actually announcing that he wants to join the TPP was a real shocker to me. There could be many possible reasons and most probably a combination of them to this but these are the reasons from a casual reading:

1st Xi wants to avoid US and allies to surround China economically

2nd To better integrate regional countries together and by trade bind then together so that year by year US influence would ultimately disappear from the region

3rd Preemptive strike from Xi, maybe he recognises that Biden want to join TPP but he cant due to domestics politics, so China requests to join now that it is relatively easy before US joins and stonewalls everything, alternative maybe he want to join first so that he can play the ultimate UNO reverse card and exclude US from joining ( can you imagine the US designed agreement allows China to join and then block US from its own trade deals )

4th Xi wants to join because he gains a seat at the table and allows China to set standards and shape rules of regional trade. This is important because TPP is actually better than RCEP

@voyager1 bro agree with you except the last part, TPP benefit the US corporate elites , the reason why China wish to join is that they had Corporate champion as well and that is the why the US want to exclude China, they can't compete.

 

[voyager1]

@voyager1 bro agree with you except the last part, TPP benefit the US corporate elites , the reason why China wish to join is that they had Corporate champion as well and that is the why the US want to exclude China, they can't compete.

Well rules and standards are important. Take a look at the now CPTPP, it has a rule about State Own Enterprises (SOE) transperancy which makes it incredibly difficult for China to join.
Now imagine if China had created the CPTPP and made a similar rule targeted squarely at the USA, i dont know maybe "If your per capita climate emissions are more than X (current US emissions) - random big number (to ensure that US never joins) then you cannot join."

And with something like that China would start preaching about protecting the climate and that the trade agreement is open for everyone to join if they follow the rules yada yada.
China would laugh all the way to the bank while US would be stuck buying solar panels from China to reduce their emissions

Now obviously this doesnt happen exactly like that but Obama parroted that the TPP is not designed to exclude anyone and everyone was welcome to join if they followed the rules (reminds you of something? )

 

[B.I.B.]

China is learning the western trick, if you can't fight them, join them. Joining the TPP and now its alternative CPTPP will enable China to have a say at the table, true.
But the biggest hurdle for China joining the TPP/CPTPP is the issue of State Own Enterprises.

What if Australia opposed China joining the TTP.

 

[ansy1968]

What if Australia opposed China joining the TTP.

@B.I.B. if the main benefactor is the US , Australia opposition doesn't count either you accept it or be thrown out instead.

 

[escobar]

US vs China balance of forces in Indo-Pacific
View attachment 69686View attachment 69687View attachment 69688

This chart is meaningless. US Pacific Fleet has more destroyers and cruisers (55) than PLA Navy.

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