China's SCS Strategy Thread

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
I would actually say that as long as ASEAN is neutral then China is ok with it. Which is why i think US has such a difficult job to gather allies to confront China.

US wants allies not neutral not allied with China.
China wants allies, but neutral is ok too, and here is the thing , you can be "allied" with USA but just dont step on China's red lines so Taiwan and non.interference on internal matters.

So as you can see there is a fundamental strategic imbalance where China has a wider range of options and is more flexible than US which strategic containment of China requires only allies.


Yes, I agree that China can achieve its military and economic objectives with an ASEAN that remains neutral between China and the USA.

We've already run through a bunch of different scenarios earlier in the thread.
In the end the issue is that the US end goal of containment needs much more resources than China's end goal of ascendancy as a global power in a multipolar order

The key is continued economic and technology development.
If China grows to 2x and then 3x larger than the USA, everything will sort itself out naturally given time.
 
Last edited:

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
Yes, I agree that China can achieve its military and economic objectives with an ASEAN that remains neutral between China and the USA.

We've already run through a bunch of different scenarios earlier in the thread.


The key is continued economic and technology development.
If China grows to 2x and then 3x larger than the USA, everything will sort itself out naturally given time.
@AndrewS I think parity is enough for the US to concede, right now with Biden in office and despite the tough language realization is finally dawning. They can't fight with their current condition and may take 5 years to recover, by that time China had reach its objective (semiconductor and aircraft engine)
 

voyager1

Captain
Registered Member
@AndrewS I think parity is enough for the US to concede, right now with Biden in office and despite the tough language realization is finally dawning. They can't fight with their current condition and may take 5 years to recover, by that time China had reach its objective (semiconductor and aircraft engine)
US will definitely wont concede for a simple reason (among many others) that many people overlook. And the reason is that the US for all these years has built its economy and sustained the living standards of its people by the US Dollars being the reserve currency of the world.
So the ability to print as many dollars as they want has made the country addicted, check the FED if you dont believe me, these people who make these decisions dont care about the common people because they can print dollars all the time and they can get away it and their whole financial system is built upon this assumption (and other countries' as well)

So the main thing from China's perspective counter to many people thoughts is not to collapse the dollar as that would create a financial and global stability crash, but to slowly replace it or at least remove the dollar from the top position
 
Last edited:

hashtagpls

Senior Member
Registered Member
US will definitely wont concede for a simple reason (among many others) that many people overlook. And the reason is that the US for all these years has built its economy and sustained the living standards of its people by the US Dollars being the reserve currency of the world.
So the ability to print as many dollars as they want has made the country addicted, check the FED if you dont believe me, these people who make these decision dont care about the common people because they can print dollars all they time they can get away it and their whole financial system is built upon this assumption (and other countries' as well)

So the main thing from China's perspective counter to many people thoughts is not to collapse the dollar as that would create a financial and global stability crash, but to slowly replace it or at least remove the dollar from the top position
Suicidal/Evangelical Christians like Pompeo may be willing to declare jihad on China at the cost of american lives, but sooner or later, before or during the war, there's going to be the equivalent of the Generals' Coup in the USG, especially given how divided the US is right now. Even with the "whole of society" race war declared against China, the US is failing to keep itself together as a cohesive society.

A war with China, even a limited conflict would have the effect of a coup and civil revolt in the US, akin to Argentina post Falklands and Armenia right now.
 

voyager1

Captain
Registered Member
Suicidal/Evangelical Christians like Pompeo may be willing to declare jihad on China at the cost of american lives, but sooner or later, before or during the war, there's going to be the equivalent of the Generals' Coup in the USG, especially given how divided the US is right now. Even with the "whole of society" race war declared against China, the US is failing to keep itself together as a cohesive society.

A war with China, even a limited conflict would have the effect of a coup and civil revolt in the US, akin to Argentina post Falklands and Armenia right now.
Well Civil war is never a good thing especially in a nuclear capable state, so i hope that it never happens.

On the other hand regarding your point about revolt.if a war happens with China i dont think that will happen. Manufacturing consent is a powerful tool to fool the masses and i suppose you see it in full force now and the strategic confrontation has started only in recent years. So i would bet that if this accelerating trajectory continues, i expect that by 2027-2030 people themselves will want to war themselves.

Never forget that the human brain is wired the same as when we were living in caves, and that propaganda in all of its forms is the most powerful tool the government has to control people and it is especially potent in the Information Era we are living now
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
US will definitely wont concede for a simple reason (among many others) that many people overlook. And the reason is that the US for all these years has built its economy and sustained the living standards of its people by the US Dollars being the reserve currency of the world.
So the ability to print as many dollars as they want has made the country addicted, check the FED if you dont believe me, these people who make these decisions dont care about the common people because they can print dollars all the time and they can get away it and their whole financial system is built upon this assumption (and other countries' as well)

So the main thing from China's perspective counter to many people thoughts is not to collapse the dollar as that would create a financial and global stability crash, but to slowly replace it or at least remove the dollar from the top position
Hi @voyager1 the very reason they will seek accommodating the Chinese rise than hindering it, look the Chinese contributed a major part in sustaining the American living standards, without them there will be hyperinflation. What Trump had done is to manipulate the American thinking that the Chinese is eating their lunch instead of fixing the real problem, what Biden want is to bring the relationship back to Obama era. the Chinese is a major factor in helping the world economy recover during the 2008 economic crisis, they need the Chinese cooperation this time more than ever since this crisis is bigger than the last one.
 
Last edited:

voyager1

Captain
Registered Member
Hi @voyager1 the very reason they will seek accommodating the Chinese rise than hindering it, look the Chinese contributed a major part in sustaining the American living standards, without them there will be hyperinflation. What Trump had done is to manipulate the American thinking that the Chinese is eating their lunch instead of fixing the real problem, what Biden want is to bring the relationship back to Obama era. the Chinese is a major factor in helping the world economy recover during the 2008 economic crisis, they need the Chinese cooperation this time more than ever since this crisis is bigger than the last one.
I posted my view on this on the Breaking & World News thread on why i think the US wont back down and the summary is that the US considers this relationship confrontational at it's core and as a battle for hegemony and it is unwilling to accommodate China's interests (Taiwan, South China Sea, HK, interference on internal matters) on the world and its institution which form the "rule based order" (e.g IMF, World Bank, WTO, Human Rights differences).

I view the start of the confrontation when Obama started the "Pivot to Asia" in 2011 and the confrontation was set in stone on 2013 when Xi announced his "Belt and Road Initiative" as a response
 

davidau

Senior Member
Registered Member
Exactly which allies are you talking I am not sure if Japan or Korea will get involved They can count of Australia, Britain and Canada but they are minnow as far as naval asset concern In the next decade even counting Japan and Korea Chinese navy will have the preponderance number of asset even the next 5 years you will have 50 destroyers, 50 frigates and 80 to 100 corvette plus 40 conventional sub, 3 or 4 carrier, 7 or 8 LPD , 4 or 5 LHD
I totally agree with your assessment. However, when I refer to allies [cronies, lackeys, brown noses] they are mainly UK, Canada, Australia, NZ, [France?] and now India who wants to be included in the quad. The Quad.....US, Australia, Japan and India. The whole idea was propagated by US to encircle China. Uncle Sam's uterior motive is pretty obvious....it sticks out like the proverbial dog's balls. Further under the new ultra hawkish US secretary of state, things will get even worse before it gets better, if ever it gets better!

That is why President Xi stresses to build a modern and advanced China militray to protect China's territorial integrety.
 
Last edited:

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
I posted my view on this on the Breaking & World News thread on why i think the US wont back down and the summary is that the US considers this relationship confrontational at it's core and as a battle for hegemony and it is unwilling to accommodate China's interests (Taiwan, South China Sea, HK, interference on internal matters) on the world and its institution which form the "rule based order" (e.g IMF, World Bank, WTO, Human Rights differences).

I view the start of the confrontation when Obama started the "Pivot to Asia" in 2011 and the confrontation was set in stone on 2013 when Xi announced his "Belt and Road Initiative" as a response
@voyager1 So they're in a dilemma, confrontation means destruction and the American way of life, cooperation means the status quo. Trump miscalculated thinking he can bully the Chinese like what they did to Japan in 80's, from that disappointment they can't back down and had been politicized. Obama is smart enough when to pull the break, whatever they do it expose their vulnerability , they can't live without the Chinese, so this divorce proceeding is heading for an amicable settlement instead of a messy one.
 

voyager1

Captain
Registered Member
@voyager1 So they're in a dilemma, confrontation means destruction and the American way of life, cooperation means the status quo. Trump miscalculated thinking he can bully the Chinese like what they did to Japan in 80's, from that disappointment they can't back down and had been politicized. Obama is smart enough when to pull the break, whatever they do it expose their vulnerability , they can't live without the Chinese, so this divorce proceeding is heading for an amicable settlement instead of a messy one.
Yes honestly Obama was far far superior to Trump. He did the TPP which if signed would be a masterstroke and would heavily pressure China to open its economy prematurely and then western companies.would dominate china's internal market. Obama was also smart as he recognised that the middle east wars were a disaster but unfortunately he couldnt pull out.

In my opinion if Trump continued Obama policies US would end up "winning" in a way that western companies and tech would enter China and China then would be bound to the "rules-based order". Unfortunately for them and fortunately for China Trump did his own thing and now China is full steam ahead, so i dont see a way to put the genie back to the bottle
 
Top