Hi weig2000,Duterte's suspension of pursuing the SCS arbitration results in 2016 had stunned everyone. You would think on the heel of the favorable arbitration any Philippine leader would build upon the momentum. This would be the conventional wisdom: Philippine being once US's colony, most of its elite indoctrinated by and embracing the US, and the arbitration being bank-rolled and strongly supported by the US. Even if pursuing it will lead to disaster for Philippine, no one would question the decision. It would take someone with Duterte's courage and out-of-box thinking to do what he did and stick to it despite all the ensuing criticism.
But Duterte's decision significantly lowered the tension between Philippine and China, to the disappointment of the US. And China and the US ended up both courting Philippine.
Don't know how the SCS problem will be resolved eventually, but I know 1) it won't be resolved if the US continues to stir up for its own purpose and 2) everyone has to compromise if a solution is to be found. Looking at China's the track records of settling border issues with the 14 countries it shares land borders, it has long since settled with 12 of them, mostly to their favor. The only one country that became aggressive got its ass kicked and is still nurturing its wounded pride today. The current resource development agreement between Philippine and China is a step in the right direction, and may set an example to future agreements among SCS claimants. Pragmatism beats dogmatism.
Hi gelgoog,Now that the US has mostly cleaned house in the Americas (Brazil, Equator, etc) I expect them to start doing coups in places like the Phillipines. Especially with a foreign policy team that comes from Obama.
Beijing’s South China Sea military bases ‘are vulnerable to attack and will be of little use in a war’
In the latest edition of Naval and Merchant Ships, a Beijing-based monthly magazine, highlighted the artificial islands’ weaknesses in four areas: their distance from the mainland, small size, the limited capacity of their airstrips and the multiple routes by which they could be attacked.
“These artificial islands have unique advantages in safeguarding Chinese sovereignty and maintaining a military presence in the deep ocean, but they have natural disadvantages in self-defence,” said the article.
The magazine said the islands were deep in the South China Sea and far from the Chinese mainland. It also warned there was no coherent chain connecting them, so it would be difficult to provide support if one came under attack.
“Take the example of the Fiery Cross Reef. It has a runway now, but it’s 1,000km (600 miles) away from Sanya city in Hainan province.” The distance means that China’s fastest combat support ships would need more than 20 hours to reach the island.
The thing about military bases of large powerful countries is that they don't stand alone and attacking them leads to war regardless of the outcome of any small battle. They were built to extend China's maritime military reach, NOT to serve as weapons for war against major adversaries. It's just like American bases all over the world; they can be overwhelmed and taken out in seconds to minutes by a missile barrage. But then what? You just started a war with the US. Standing alone, these islands just like US bases, can be seen as vulnerabilities but in fact, they are assets because they can serve many maritime missions and be off limits from attack simply due to their national affiliations.Beijing’s South China Sea military bases ‘are vulnerable to attack and will be of little use in a war’
In the latest edition of Naval and Merchant Ships, a Beijing-based monthly magazine, highlighted the artificial islands’ weaknesses in four areas: their distance from the mainland, small size, the limited capacity of their airstrips and the multiple routes by which they could be attacked.
“These artificial islands have unique advantages in safeguarding Chinese sovereignty and maintaining a military presence in the deep ocean, but they have natural disadvantages in self-defence,” said the article.
The magazine said the islands were deep in the South China Sea and far from the Chinese mainland. It also warned there was no coherent chain connecting them, so it would be difficult to provide support if one came under attack.
“Take the example of the Fiery Cross Reef. It has a runway now, but it’s 1,000km (600 miles) away from Sanya city in Hainan province.” The distance means that China’s fastest combat support ships would need more than 20 hours to reach the island.
Islands, especially small islands, lack strategic depth and is always subject to attack. However, you have to look at the entire chessboard. The U.S. have assets in our military bases in Japan, South Korea and islands ringing China. If a war were to break out (attacking the Chinese islands cannot occur except in war), these U.S. assets are all lacking in strategic depth and will be destroyed very quickly. Just think about how much fire power each side has and how many places to hide these fire power on each side and you get the picture. In such a war, it is not just the Chinese islands that will be destroyed, the U.S. bases will also. In the future, with the Chinese strategic bomber B-20 coming online, Guam and even Hawaii will be at risk. Once these assets are destroyed, help will have to come from Hawaii or Australia. CSGs are very quickly detected if they come close. We can imagine in a conflict like that, even after destroyed, the Chinese islands can quickly be fixed to be forward bases and observation posts. Of course the same could also be said of the U.S. bases, however, there are two big differences.Beijing’s South China Sea military bases ‘are vulnerable to attack and will be of little use in a war’
In the latest edition of Naval and Merchant Ships, a Beijing-based monthly magazine, highlighted the artificial islands’ weaknesses in four areas: their distance from the mainland, small size, the limited capacity of their airstrips and the multiple routes by which they could be attacked.
“These artificial islands have unique advantages in safeguarding Chinese sovereignty and maintaining a military presence in the deep ocean, but they have natural disadvantages in self-defence,” said the article.
The magazine said the islands were deep in the South China Sea and far from the Chinese mainland. It also warned there was no coherent chain connecting them, so it would be difficult to provide support if one came under attack.
“Take the example of the Fiery Cross Reef. It has a runway now, but it’s 1,000km (600 miles) away from Sanya city in Hainan province.” The distance means that China’s fastest combat support ships would need more than 20 hours to reach the island.