China's SCS Strategy Thread

[nastya1]

Eventually PLAN will have to come out and face the USN in the high sea. The planning would be having two carrier strike groups in the Indian ocean to protect its sea lane. One would be at Myanmar Coco island at east side watching over Indian Navy at adanman and another group stationed at island off the coast of Pakistan at the west side.
Eventually PLAN carriers has to reach certain parity with USN carrier groups.

 

[gelgoog]

The US is scared of Chinese attack capabilities enough to consider stationing some bombers in Australia.

The B-1 bomber can be used to strike naval targets, sure, after the upgrades to the radar and avionics are done.
The B-1 fleet has major issues with airframe lifetime. They need to replace parts in the main structure.
They flew them too fast and low in Afghanistan and decreased the lifetime of the airframes.
Until recently the USAF wanted to put the B-1 into the boneyards and cancel the upgrades.
All in the name of more of their precious F-35s.

Anyway, it always seems like the US finds the money to fund these expensive gadgets, so assuming the B-1 does get a naval attack capability, it is highly likely it would strike with cruise missiles, not bombs. For this the best thing are air defenses. Especially long range air defenses. I don't know if a carrier wing or air cover with fighters would be viable given the short response window they would have.
The US has invested a lot in stealthy subsonic cruise missiles. That is most likely what they would use.

Yes, the fact that the Chinese operate their fleet from a limited number of ports is a liability, but to be honest the US has a similar problem.

 

[ansy1968]

The US is scared of Chinese attack capabilities enough to consider stationing some bombers in Australia.

The B-1 bomber can be used to strike naval targets, sure, after the upgrades to the radar and avionics are done.
The B-1 fleet has major issues with airframe lifetime. They need to replace parts in the main structure.
They flew them too fast and low in Afghanistan and decreased the lifetime of the airframes.
Until recently the USAF wanted to put the B-1 into the boneyards and cancel the upgrades.
All in the name of more of their precious F-35s.

Anyway, it always seems like the US finds the money to fund these expensive gadgets, so assuming the B-1 does get a naval attack capability, it is highly likely it would strike with cruise missiles, not bombs. For this the best thing are air defenses. Especially long range air defenses. I don't know if a carrier wing or air cover with fighters would be viable given the short response window they would have.
The US has invested a lot in stealthy subsonic cruise missiles. That is most likely what they would use.

Yes, the fact that the Chinese operate their fleet from a limited number of ports is a liability, but to be honest the US has a similar problem.

Hi gelgoog,

The US foreign basing is a way of coercing their vassal /allies in going to war? a way to make up the numbers? It may work against failed states and non state actor but against a peer power? Let see what Japan, SK and Australia will do if there is a real shooting war?

 

[plawolf]

There is zero need for the PLAN to go fight the USN in the high seas.

The idea of the USN trying to cut Chinese sea lanes in the Indian Ocean are only the useless wet dreams of people who have zero idea of how modern trade works.

Modern trade doesn’t care about nationality of the ships, and all freighters and tankers pretty much work like segments of a conveyer belt.

That means the US will have no way to know where a ship is going if the ship files false papers, as would immediately happen if they tried a blockade.

The sheer volume of civilian shipping and the ubiquitous nature of raw materials makes it an impossibility for the US to board and inspect even a tiny fraction of the ships that pass through the Indian Ocean, nor would they get much actionable information even if they do board every ship since a barrel of oil is the same no matter if it’s going to China or Japan or anywhere else.

The only way a blockade could possibly work is through geographic proximity and bottlenecks.

That is why the US is so obsessed with the SCS, and why Obama/was actively encouraging the likes of the Philippines and Vietnam to go on a land grabbing frenzy there before China put a stop to that BS once and for all with its island building.

All of that was laying the groundwork to use the SCS to blockade China, as that is pretty much the only place on earth where it is actually possible to enforce a blockade.

In the event of a blockade, shipping bound for SK and Japan can swing around the Philippines to avoid the SCS while Vietnam can close its territorial waters to external traffic, and route their own trade through there with their customs able to legally intercept any shipping heading for China in their waters.

That would mean anything in the SCS would be either coming from or going to China, thus removing the biggest problem with trying to enforce a blockade in the modern age. Similarly, anything trying to loop around the Philippines and then make a dash for the mainland would easily stand out and make themselves easy targets.

Without its SCS bases, the PLAN would have had a hard time standing up to the USN in the SCS, far from land based support.

But those bases completely change the dynamics and now the USN has if anything, a tougher fight in the SCS than near Taiwan.

The islands and the PLAN needs to operate together, in a mutually supportive manner to be able to effectively counter the USN.

But as you can see from the remarks of Biden’s SecDef pick that they have still not given up on the hope of being able to blockade China via the SCS, hence their wet dreaming about sinking the PLAN within 72hs and thus opening the islands bases up for attack and invasion.

 

[Nobonita Barua]

There is zero need for the PLAN to go fight the USN in the high seas.

The idea of the USN trying to cut Chinese sea lanes in the Indian Ocean are only the useless wet dreams of people who have zero idea of how modern trade works.

Modern trade doesn’t care about nationality of the ships, and all freighters and tankers pretty much work like segments of a conveyer belt.

That means the US will have no way to know where a ship is going if the ship files false papers, as would immediately happen if they tried a blockade.

The sheer volume of civilian shipping and the ubiquitous nature of raw materials makes it an impossibility for the US to board and inspect even a tiny fraction of the ships that pass through the Indian Ocean, nor would they get much actionable information even if they do board every ship since a barrel of oil is the same no matter if it’s going to China or Japan or anywhere else.

The only way a blockade could possibly work is through geographic proximity and bottlenecks.

That is why the US is so obsessed with the SCS, and why Obama/was actively encouraging the likes of the Philippines and Vietnam to go on a land grabbing frenzy there before China put a stop to that BS once and for all with its island building.

All of that was laying the groundwork to use the SCS to blockade China, as that is pretty much the only place on earth where it is actually possible to enforce a blockade.

In the event of a blockade, shipping bound for SK and Japan can swing around the Philippines to avoid the SCS while Vietnam can close its territorial waters to external traffic, and route their own trade through there with their customs able to legally intercept any shipping heading for China in their waters.

That would mean anything in the SCS would be either coming from or going to China, thus removing the biggest problem with trying to enforce a blockade in the modern age. Similarly, anything trying to loop around the Philippines and then make a dash for the mainland would easily stand out and make themselves easy targets.

Without its SCS bases, the PLAN would have had a hard time standing up to the USN in the SCS, far from land based support.

But those bases completely change the dynamics and now the USN has if anything, a tougher fight in the SCS than near Taiwan.

The islands and the PLAN needs to operate together, in a mutually supportive manner to be able to effectively counter the USN.

But as you can see from the remarks of Biden’s SecDef pick that they have still not given up on the hope of being able to blockade China via the SCS, hence their wet dreaming about sinking the PLAN within 72hs and thus opening the islands bases up for attack and invasion.

One question.

If US really tries to experiment to know to what extent China would go & strike their ship/SCS islands without striking the mainland & goes sniffing around Taiwan, what would China do?
Would it be simply targeting the US ships in return?

 

[nastya1]

Alot of Great power competition is based on psychologically. Judging by the way of US blatant demonstration of power projection and intimidation in SCS, they feel quite confident against PLA.
Typical maximum demonstration would be USN having 2 carrier strike groups patrolling in SCS.
Yes, antiship ballastic missiles are potent and USN aware of that but still not enough to dent USN confidence. They feel very confident against PLAN and cut off merchant ships. Whether how it can be done in actuality is entirely different matter
Eventually, China may put 2 carriers group stationed permanently in SCS that reach certain parity against USN carriers and can go up directly against them if have to.
By that time, US over confidence would be dented. Once that confidence gone then everything would be snowballed after that.

As long as US confidence in SCS still there, it will continue to do things blatantly that detrimental to China interest

 

[plawolf]

One question.

If US really tries to experiment to know to what extent China would go & strike their ship/SCS islands without striking the mainland & goes sniffing around Taiwan, what would China do?
Would it be simply targeting the US ships in return?

Hard to say, but I think China will look to push American military forces out of its backyard once and for all. So everything west of Hawaii and north of Australia will become open game for Chinese retaliation.

China will probably issue warnings to Japan and SK that US military bases on their soil will be targeted for destruction, so they can either kick the Americans out themselves, or stay out of the fight, else they will get a pounding as well.

I don’t think China will bother to wait for the outcome to the fight to become known to do any of this. Because it will be at a massive disadvantage to leave US military bases close to its territory untouched, as those bases would provide invaluable intel for US military forces even if they do not actively engage in fighting directly.

This would potentially also give China the leverage it needs to break SK away from the US, as they have the most to loose from getting such into such a fight, while Japan will jump in on America’s side no matter what.

 

[ansy1968]

Hi plawolf,

I think there is an understanding between China and SK that they will keep the peace in the Korean peninsula, that China will restrain NK, while SK will do the same with the US.

 

[Sardaukar20]

Hi plawolf,

I think there is an understanding between China and SK that they will keep the peace in the Korean peninsula, that China will restrain NK, while SK will do the same with the US.

Sorry, can't agree on that. China could restrain NK to a certain extent. But SK is in no position restrain the US. Uncle Sam has overwhelming leverage on SK. From defence, to technology, and to the economy.

The best thing that can restrain uncle Sam is pure military might. China, Russia, and to a certain extent, NK have enough in their militaries to make the price-benefit ratio unpalatable for Uncle Sam.

 

[Sardaukar20]

But as you can see from the remarks of Biden’s SecDef pick that they have still not given up on the hope of being able to blockade China via the SCS, hence their wet dreaming about sinking the PLAN within 72hs and thus opening the islands bases up for attack and invasion.

That is why the CCP is wise to caution everyone that it does not see the Biden administration ending the US-China Cold War. The anti-China Cold War have always been there. It never ended since 1949. The lull in hostilities in the 1990s to the early 2000s is not a cessation of the Cold War. Many things still did happen during those more 'pleasant' times. Then The Obama administration turned up the heat again in 2009 with the US Pivot to Asia, and the SCS goes back into being a contentious place.

Good thing the PLAN is so big right now, that sinking it entirely in 72 hours is virtually impossible. A Pearl Harbour scenario is impossible to achieve on the PLAN unless they are sleeping on the job. The PLAN are very vigilant to any enemy activities in the SCS. If they see something coming, they would surely act. The PLAN have in the past, mobilize naval assets to monitor hostile Naval wargames. So, any unusually large gathering of naval assets by US and friends would surely be a big red flag.

OTOH taking out of action one USN CBG in 72 hours is a more plausible scenario in a SCS battle. China has the home turf advantage and more importantly, the PLAN have the means to inflict devastation on USN CBGs. If the DF-21D and DF-26 really works as advertised, then that 72hours can be further cut down. But I still suspect that the real killers are the less glamorous array of AshMs, torpedoes, and mines.