China's SCS Strategy Thread


Nobonita Barua

Senior Member
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Beijing’s South China Sea military bases ‘are vulnerable to attack and will be of little use in a war’

In the latest edition of Naval and Merchant Ships, a Beijing-based monthly magazine, highlighted the artificial islands’ weaknesses in four areas: their distance from the mainland, small size, the limited capacity of their airstrips and the multiple routes by which they could be attacked.

“These artificial islands have unique advantages in safeguarding Chinese sovereignty and maintaining a military presence in the deep ocean, but they have natural disadvantages in self-defence,” said the article.

The magazine said the islands were deep in the South China Sea and far from the Chinese mainland. It also warned there was no coherent chain connecting them, so it would be difficult to provide support if one came under attack.

“Take the example of the Fiery Cross Reef. It has a runway now, but it’s 1,000km (600 miles) away from Sanya city in Hainan province.” The distance means that China’s fastest combat support ships would need more than 20 hours to reach the island.

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Yap.
So will be Guam & Hawaii
 

Nobonita Barua

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US strategic depth of its bases isn't the US bases in Japan, South Korea, and other countries in themselves. It's the fact that an attack on a US base in Japan will bring Japan into the war. The same with South Korea. Lots more cannon fodder for the Americans.
Not exactly
 

Nobonita Barua

Senior Member
Registered Member
Islands, especially small islands, lack strategic depth and is always subject to attack. However, you have to look at the entire chessboard. The U.S. have assets in our military bases in Japan, South Korea and islands ringing China. If a war were to break out (attacking the Chinese islands cannot occur except in war), these U.S. assets are all lacking in strategic depth and will be destroyed very quickly. Just think about how much fire power each side has and how many places to hide these fire power on each side and you get the picture. In such a war, it is not just the Chinese islands that will be destroyed, the U.S. bases will also. In the future, with the Chinese strategic bomber B-20 coming online, Guam and even Hawaii will be at risk. Once these assets are destroyed, help will have to come from Hawaii or Australia. CSGs are very quickly detected if they come close. We can imagine in a conflict like that, even after destroyed, the Chinese islands can quickly be fixed to be forward bases and observation posts. Of course the same could also be said of the U.S. bases, however, there are two big differences.

1. Once the fire power is destroyed in the U.S. base, it must be re-supplied by ship from a very far distance away. Ships that will be very vulnerable to attacks.

2. The bases that are on islands all the way up to Okinawa will be subject to Chinese invasion. Once the Chinese invaded and taken over these islands, they will extend their reach from the first island chain out and make places like Guam more vulnerable. For the U.S., to retake these islands will require boats, boats that are vulnerable to being attacked again.

In peace time, these man made islands are very useful in extending the reach of the PLAN as well as the Chinese Coastguard. It allowed them to control contested waters with countries like Vietnam.
US is stuck in WW2. They think they can fight another war by putting soldiers in another country & when the dust settles, they will go back home happily where everything remains as it was.
 

reservior dogs

Junior Member
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US strategic depth of its bases isn't the US bases in Japan, South Korea, and other countries in themselves. It's the fact that an attack on a US base in Japan will bring Japan into the war. The same with South Korea. Lots more cannon fodder for the Americans.
If the Chinese islands are being attacked, the ships and forces are coming from these places that will belong to either South Korea or Japan. The Chinese will hit back and possibly occupy these places. Can Japan or South Korea hit back? South Korea has very high economic ties with China and could be invaded by the Chinese on land, so they will not be very keen on striking back at the Chinese. Japan does not have offensive missiles or a big enough navy to hit back. Also they must consider that most of the Japanese industries are located in a small part of Japan, making the retaliatory strike from China very devastating for Japan, and I am not even talking about nuclear power here. In this case, the U.S. will find two very reluctant partners.
 

weig2000

Senior Member
To get an understanding of what roles SCS Islands play in China's SCS defense strategy, read this article by J. Michael Dahm.

J. Michael Dahm is a senior researcher at the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory (APL) and retired U.S. Navy intelligence officer. Mr. Dahm’s perspectives presented through War on the Rocks are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of APL or its sponsors.

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weig2000

Senior Member
J. Michael Dahm has written what probably is the best OSINT analysis on China's SCS Islands military capabilities. It has shed the lights on the comprehensive, sophisticated, and resilient informationized warfare capability that China has built on these islands. The author is a former US Navy intelligence officer, so the analysis are rather professional even though they're all based on non-military sources.

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J. Michael Dahm

In the information age, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) believe that success in combat will be realized by winning a struggle for information superiority in the operational batttlespace. China’s informationized warfare strategy and information-centric operational concepts are central to how the PLA will generate combat power. These South China Sea (SCS) military capability (MILCAP) studies provide a survey of military technologies and systems on Chinese-claimed island-reefs in the disputed Spratly Islands. The relative compactness of China’s SCS outposts makes them an attractive case study of PLA military capabilities. Each island-reef and its associated military base facilities may be captured in a single commercial satellite image. An examination of capabilities on China’s island-reefs reveals the PLA’s informationized warfare strategy and the military’s designs on generating what the Chinese call “information power.” The SCS MILCAP series is organized around different categories of information power capabilities, from reconnaissance to communications to hardened infrastructure. Kinetic effects will remain an important component of PLA operational design. However, any challenger to Chinese military capabilities in the SCS must first account for and target the very core of the PLA’s informationized warfare strategy—its information power.

South China Sea Military Capabilities Series Documents:

 

gelgoog

Captain
Registered Member
US strategic depth of its bases isn't the US bases in Japan, South Korea, and other countries in themselves. It's the fact that an attack on a US base in Japan will bring Japan into the war. The same with South Korea. Lots more cannon fodder for the Americans.

I wouldn't count on that. Imagine China makes an ultimatum where US troops need to exit South Korea and Japan in, say, 48h, then strikes American bases. I doubt the US let alone South Korea and Japan would fight back.

I think China wouldn't attempt an invasion of the Japanese home islands regardless of what happens. There is no point in it.
 

PhSt

New Member
Registered Member
I am not sure where to post this piece but since it has implications to the SCS I am posting it here.

It seems elements of the US propaganda department in Singapore has published a hit piece targeting Philippine president Duterte and his deals with China by making insinuations that his partnership has barely produced any meaningful outcome.

‘They’re taking him for a ride’: Has Philippines gained from Duterte’s China pivot?

In 2016, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte warmed to Beijing in exchange for investments. But so far, only a fraction of the billions of dollars pledged have materialised. The programme Insight asks if his China policy has come to naught.

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I have a feeling that the US will also start to mobilize their 5th column agents across the Philippine political sphere to install another puppet president who would attempt to reverse all the recent partnership deals with China. And with elections fast approaching in 2022 we can expect more negative coverage about Duterte and China in Philippine 5th columnist media. China will need to act decisively if it wants to preserve the positive gains in its partnership with the Philippines.
 

ansy1968

Captain
Registered Member
I am not sure where to post this piece but since it has implications to the SCS I am posting it here.

It seems elements of the US propaganda department in Singapore has published a hit piece targeting Philippine president Duterte and his deals with China by making insinuations that his partnership has barely produced any meaningful outcome.



I have a feeling that the US will also start to mobilize their 5th column agents across the Philippine political sphere to install another puppet president who would attempt to reverse all the recent partnership deals with China. And with elections fast approaching in 2022 we can expect more negative coverage about Duterte and China in Philippine 5th columnist media. China will need to act decisively if it wants to preserve the positive gains in its partnership with the Philippines.
Hi PhSt,

Yes, if you read my previous post if Biden won there will be trouble here in the Philippines. 2022 PRESIDENTIAL election is around the corner, The US will be intervening big time, Duterte only vulnerability is the SCS issue, here the opposition and the US see an opportunity and will be doing this covert activity

1) making bias/ unfavorable survey against China (the question is usually like this, which is better YAO ming or Michael Jordan, US1 CHN 0)

2) MSM and Asian publication like CNA and Nikei news outlet reporting bias news

3) there is report that the promise vaccine from China will not push thru, cause our health dep't will be looking at Pfizer vaccine first as agreed on loan condition to us by the World bank.

4) Our COMELEC (commission on election) agree to use and employ the Smartmatic system (same owner and provider with DOMINION system in the US) for our election in 2022. Here the hidden hand of the US will determine our future president.

Yes China may help, but the US influence is strong especially among the elites and the upper middle class. Duterte had strong support among the masses, but it need tangible result, here China may help with the infrastructure , the COC agreement and the gas/oil exploration.(vaccine is a really good gesture, but it was taken out by our own incompetence and greed)

Now we know what the American is planning to do ,But there is a critical question to be ask, who will be their prefer candidate. There is a lot of potential candidate to pick from but all of them lack the charisma and the electivity of Duterte. With Duterte popularity at an all time high, he hold the key and is holding his card close to his chest. Any attack on him will backfire cause the masses did not trust the media, our media that is owned by the elites and had been expose for it's bias reporting. So the US is in for a surprise, if they openly campaign against Duterte they will be surely burn like they experience last election. Here's what I expect the American will do, they will finance multiple candidate therefore enhancing its chance of winning and in case of a close election to minimize Duterte's choice candidate lead to a single digit and make it possible for Smartmatic to cheat and decide the winner.( US prefer candidate)
 
Last edited:

localizer

Colonel
Registered Member
Hi PhSt,

Yes, if you read my previous post if Biden won there will be trouble here in the Philippines. 2022 PRESIDENTIAL election is around the corner, The US will be intervening big time, Duterte only vulnerability is the SCS issue, here the opposition and the US see an opportunity and will be doing this covert activity

1) making bias/ unfavorable survey against China (the question is usually like this, which is better YAO ming or Michael Jordan, US1 CHN 0)

2) MSM and Asian publication like CNA and Nikei news outlet reporting bias news

3) there is report that the promise vaccine from China will not push thru, cause our health dep't will be looking at Pfizer vaccine first as agreed on loan condition to us by the World bank.

4) Our COMELEC (commission on election) agree to use and employ the Smartmatic system (same owner and provider with DOMINION system in the US) for our election in 2022. Here the hidden hand of the US will determine our future president.

Yes China may help, but the US influence is strong especially among the elites and the upper middle class. Duterte had strong support among the masses, but it need tangible result, here China may help with the infrastructure , the COC agreement and the gas/oil exploration.(vaccine is a really good gesture, but it was taken out by our own incompetence and greed)

Now we know what the American is planning to do ,But there is a critical question to be ask, who will be their prefer candidate. There is a lot of potential candidate to pick from but all of them lack the charisma and the electivity of Duterte. With Duterte popularity at an all time high, he hold the key and is holding his card close to his chest. Any attack on him will backfire cause the masses did not trust the media, our media that is owned by the elites and had been expose for it's bias reporting. So the US is in for a surprise, if they openly campaign against Duterte they will be surely burn like they experience last election. Here's what I expect the American will do, they will finance multiple candidate therefore enhancing its chance of winning and in case of a close election to minimize Duterte's choice candidate lead to a single digit and make it possible for Smartmatic to cheat and decide the winner.( US prefer candidate)

I mean, they could just do him in.
 

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