China's SCS Strategy Thread


reservior dogs

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But you can flip that and ask if China is willing to put everything on the line for some islands in the SCS?

Also, China has absolute conventional escalation advantage in the SCS, but once things goes nuclear, it’s at best a tie, but most likely America still holds a significant escalation advantage, especially in light of the lack of clear proportional response targets for China to strike back against without an unacceptable risk of triggering all out nuclear war.

We also need to remember that Trump is a reckless gambler who is growing increasingly desperate as his poll ratings plummet.

I can easily see him throwing long term US
strategic interests out the window if he thinks a military clash will give him the fleeting boost he needs for a second term.

For example, he could easily escalate tensions until he has a pretext for military action, send in a SSGN to spam a few (conventionally armed) missile at the SCS islands from a few thousand miles away as fast as it can launch them and then head immediately back to base with minimal risk. He can then issue an ultimatum that he will respond with tactical nuclear weapons against China SCS bases if China retaliates.

I can see China limiting itself to non-direct responses in such a scenario, especially if little to not damage was done on the islands themselves.

For example, China could simply declare everything west of the first and maybe even second island chain as off limits to US military assets, with a shoot on sight order in place for any US military vessel or aircraft spotted in that area.

Trump gets to say he dropped the hammer on China and made the big bad boogeyman back down, while China effectively pushes the US out of its backyard.

I can see both sides living with that outcome.
Technology has changed over the years. If nuke is used by the U.S., China's response is not confined to just responding with nukes on U.S. bases. A super accurate saturation attack using conventional missiles can kill a lot of soldiers and destroy a lot of bases without leaving too much collateral damage. What is more, China can take over these islands once the attack is completed. The loss of hundreds or thousands of soldiers in islands from Okinawa on down the first island chain is a pretty good escalation. What is more, the U.S. really does not have a good way to escalate to the next step without it being a big step that could trigger WWIII. Once these islands are occupied by the Chinese, there is almost no way to get it back due to its relative proximity to China.
 

Jono

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Technology has changed over the years. If nuke is used by the U.S., China's response is not confined to just responding with nukes on U.S. bases. A super accurate saturation attack using conventional missiles can kill a lot of soldiers and destroy a lot of bases without leaving too much collateral damage. What is more, China can take over these islands once the attack is completed. The loss of hundreds or thousands of soldiers in islands from Okinawa on down the first island chain is a pretty good escalation. What is more, the U.S. really does not have a good way to escalate to the next step without it being a big step that could trigger WWIII. Once these islands are occupied by the Chinese, there is almost no way to get it back due to its relative proximity to China.
I tend to agree with this assessment.
if US initiates a conflict at SCS, China should not limit the theatre of operation there. All US military and naval bases at Japan, Okinawa, Philipines, and even Singapore become legitimate targets. Since the gloves are off, China may as well contemplate taking back Taiwan and restoring Okinawan independence in one go. I guess Asian countries ( Japan, SK included, but Australia excluded ) know about the threat to their own prosperity should a war break out, and will not side with the US easily in a military conflict.
After all, any sane Asian leaders would understand Trump really means it when he says America First, and would not sacrifice their own interests and welfare to appease him.
 

j17wang

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Well the simple reason is there is less cases now in mainland China. So there is not much any effect if the vaccine is first use in mainland.
So better use them to those who need the most, has less money and does not throw shit at China like maybe in Africa or South America.
TBH, if you think about china's COVID cases, any outbreaks within China can be demonstrably contained through massive quarantine and testing. Its actually in china's self interest to distribute COVID vaccines abroad, since they are now the primary source of the outbreaks in China. China is more likely at this point to give them out for free to africa/south east asia/middle east/south america and just provide free license to produce in countries such as Canada (which didn't do a vaccine pre-order). Best case is if chinese vaccines can be shown to be effective and then displace Moderna in rich countries as well by being freely manufactured.
 

ansy1968

Junior Member
Registered Member
I tend to agree with this assessment.
if US initiates a conflict at SCS, China should not limit the theatre of operation there. All US military and naval bases at Japan, Okinawa, Philipines, and even Singapore become legitimate targets. Since the gloves are off, China may as well contemplate taking back Taiwan and restoring Okinawan independence in one go. I guess Asian countries ( Japan, SK included, but Australia excluded ) know about the threat to their own prosperity should a war break out, and will not side with the US easily in a military conflict.
After all, any sane Asian leaders would understand Trump really means it when he says America First, and would not sacrifice their own interests and welfare to appease him.
Hi Jono,

Bingo, all smart Asian leader even Vietnam, Japan & Sk will play each other to advance their national interest, nobody wants war especially within your neighborhood. China know this that's why the military build up is intent to put a message across that she will fight back if aggrieve. But China should played her card well, too aggressive it may backfire.
 

ansy1968

Junior Member
Registered Member
TBH, if you think about china's COVID cases, any outbreaks within China can be demonstrably contained through massive quarantine and testing. Its actually in china's self interest to distribute COVID vaccines abroad, since they are now the primary source of the outbreaks in China. China is more likely at this point to give them out for free to africa/south east asia/middle east/south america and just provide free license to produce in countries such as Canada (which didn't do a vaccine pre-order). Best case is if chinese vaccines can be shown to be effective and then displace Moderna in rich countries as well by being freely manufactured.
Hi j17wang,

Imagine what prestige it will give to China, especially if the cost of Moderna vaccine is expensive. The most satisfying feeling is let the US, CANADA, UK, AUSTRALIA and India had the vaccine BUT they have to fall in line starting at the back. :cool:
 

j17wang

New Member
Registered Member
Hi j17wang,

Imagine what prestige it will give to China, especially if the cost of Moderna vaccine is expensive. The most satisfying feeling is let the US, CANADA, UK, AUSTRALIA and India had the vaccine BUT they have to fall in line starting at the back. :cool:
Don't even make them fall in back of the line... they can produce it for free. Let them explain to their electorate why they are producing a vaccine developed by Kommunist China.
 

Jono

Junior Member
Registered Member
TBH, if you think about china's COVID cases, any outbreaks within China can be demonstrably contained through massive quarantine and testing. Its actually in china's self interest to distribute COVID vaccines abroad, since they are now the primary source of the outbreaks in China. China is more likely at this point to give them out for free to africa/south east asia/middle east/south america and just provide free license to produce in countries such as Canada (which didn't do a vaccine pre-order). Best case is if chinese vaccines can be shown to be effective and then displace Moderna in rich countries as well by being freely manufactured.
I think China will distribute the vaccine freely or heavily discounted to friendly countries. With China's massive industrial capability, no other countries can manufacture enough vaccine as efficiently and as cost effectively as China in the shortest possible amount of time. And all countries need the vaccine desperately, no time to waste.
Hence you may say it is some kind of " vaccine diplomacy " to win hearts and souls.
But I feel the bigger picture in the mind of the Chinese leadership is to establish and promote "China Standards" in medical health care products, starting with masks, respirators, and now COVID vaccine.
Don't ask me to produce products to American or European standards. We will produce to China standards, and you can take it or leave it, your choice.
 

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