China's SCS Strategy Thread

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
But I feel the bigger picture in the mind of the Chinese leadership is to establish and promote "China Standards" in medical health care products, starting with masks, respirators, and now COVID vaccine.
Don't ask me to produce products to American or European standards. We will produce to China standards, and you can take it or leave it, your choice.

In terms of a vaccine, the production standards should be the same in China as elsewhere.

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But the risk-cost-benefit of using a vaccine is dependent on the situation in each country, and on each group of people.

For example, India has a curiously low death rate given the vast numbers of infected.

The theory is that Indians have a better innate resistance to new coronaviruses, because they have been exposed to so many pathogens already. There are studies that show the Tuberculosis vaccine is partially effective against a variety of other viruses, because it primes the immune system generally.

So is it worth Indians being vaccinated?

On the other hand, the calculation is very different for high-risk medical staff in countries which have a lower prevalence of infectious disease.

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Anyway, back on topic.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
I tend to agree with this assessment.
if US initiates a conflict at SCS, China should not limit the theatre of operation there. All US military and naval bases at Japan, Okinawa, Philipines, and even Singapore become legitimate targets. Since the gloves are off, China may as well contemplate taking back Taiwan and restoring Okinawan independence in one go. I guess Asian countries ( Japan, SK included, but Australia excluded ) know about the threat to their own prosperity should a war break out, and will not side with the US easily in a military conflict.
After all, any sane Asian leaders would understand Trump really means it when he says America First, and would not sacrifice their own interests and welfare to appease him.

Assuming everyone else is neutral, I think any conflict would be better limited to the SCS, because China will have a clear advantage in having local bases and local military superiority. In comparison, the US has to operate all the way from Guam.

Remember that in a US-China conflict, the US military will be trying to shut down trade in the SCS to blockade China.
In comparison, the coastal nations of the SCS are critically dependent on those sea lanes, and China is at the centre of the Asian trading network. So it is in their interests to support the Chinese military in keeping the sea lanes open.
 

Breadbox

Junior Member
Registered Member
I don’t think China is at a stage where it could take on the USN in the SCS, at the strait of Taiwan maybe, but the SCS islands remains out of range of most of its land based missiles, while the Anti-ship capabilities of ballistic missiles remains untested over such long distances.

Let’s be honest here, the islands and forces stationed there are confined, immobile and subjected to US surveillance 24/7. There’s honestly not much that can be done to save them from airstrikes in an event of a war, hence why it is important to rapidly build a blue water navy.
Especially its aircraft carriers.
 

Petrolicious88

Senior Member
Registered Member
Assuming everyone else is neutral, I think any conflict would be better limited to the SCS, because China will have a clear advantage in having local bases and local military superiority. In comparison, the US has to operate all the way from Guam.

Remember that in a US-China conflict, the US military will be trying to shut down trade in the SCS to blockade China.
In comparison, the coastal nations of the SCS are critically dependent on those sea lanes, and China is at the centre of the Asian trading network. So it is in their interests to support the Chinese military in keeping the sea lanes open.
War seems very likely now.

First there is the PR campaign where you demonize China for Covid, Hong Kong, XinJiang, SCS, etc. you get the general public to view China as the bad actor. The justification for war is set.

Next you build up a coalition of allies. Australia was the key indicator because they have supported the US in every single war. When they declared China’s claims in the SCS as illegal that was a clear signal.

US is it NOT basing all its troops in Guam. It’s been dispersing it’s forces throughout remote bases in Pacific. It’s been practicing rotating troops quickly out of remote bases like Dieago Garcia and several others. It’s been developing long range munitions to neutralize Chinese range advantage. 8 US marines just died because they were training for war in the SCS.

So many other signs too. I believe Israel, AU, and UK are given a heads up. UK dramatically reversed its decision on Huawei. War is coming and thus you can’t use the enemies communication equipment.
 

hullopilllw

Junior Member
Registered Member
I don’t think China is at a stage where it could take on the USN in the SCS, at the strait of Taiwan maybe, but the SCS islands remains out of range of most of its land based missiles, while the Anti-ship capabilities of ballistic missiles remains untested over such long distances.

Let’s be honest here, the islands and forces stationed there are confined, immobile and subjected to US surveillance 24/7. There’s honestly not much that can be done to save them from airstrikes in an event of a war, hence why it is important to rapidly build a blue water navy.
Especially its aircraft carriers.

How about Guam and the base at Okinawa?
 

Breadbox

Junior Member
Registered Member
How about Guam and the base at Okinawa?
China and US are holding eachother bases/islands hostage, both could blow up eachother’s island/bases at a moment’s notice. But we should realistic about the situation here, USN can conduct 24/7 aerial surveillance on China’s islands but not the other way around, and USN has a much more powerful navy at present.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
China and US are holding eachother bases/islands hostage, both could blow up eachother’s island/bases at a moment’s notice. But we should realistic about the situation here, USN can conduct 24/7 aerial surveillance on China’s islands but not the other way around, and USN has a much more powerful navy at present.

The USN can only conduct 24/7 surveillance on China’s SCS islands during peacetime. As soon as overt hostilities break out, none of their spy planes will be able to get anywhere close enough to those islands to take any pictures before being shot down.

US space based assets could be dazzled to make their imagery useless, or outright destroyed should things escalate that far.

China’s SCS islands are so big that it’s forces already depkoyedcould easily disperse, and short of a pearl harbour like surprise first strike by the Americans, they are unlikely to score devastating damage as PLA assets would disperse and redeploy from their peace time resting positions as soon as overt hostilities commence.

What damage US does manage to score some early in a campaign would all be temporary as those islands are essentially massive construction sites, with massive manpower, materials and machinery already in place and quickly repair any damage done.

With geopolitical realities, China will not be throwing the first punch. If there is to be conflict in the SCS, it will be the Americans who will be the ones to shoot first.

As such, the PLA’s current island garrisons are really only minimal tripwire forces. There aren’t much in the way of worthwhile targets to hit with a surprise alpha strike, but there are still enough punch in those islands to ensure any attacking enemy ships cannot come too close without assuming massive risk, and any opening amphibious assault attempt would be suicidal.

If the US cannot take those islands as their opening attack, which they cannot, the PLA reinforcements would be airlifted in within hours, and much more significant reinforcements will be deployed within days by ship from the mainland to bring those islands up to full combat capabilities.

With those islands fully garrisoned with defences, as well as with overlapping coverage by PLAN naval assets and air assets, those islands will be far harder to hit than any naval surface fleet, only difference being no number of missile hits can sink those islands.

Furthermore, without effective up to date intel to do damage assessment and find relocated priority targets, the US could use up its entire tomahawk inventory and still not be able to do much meaningful damage.

But you have to remember that the primary striking power of USN carrier fleets are their aircraft. Those fleets have a finite number of VLS cells, and any cells used for tomahawks are cells unavailable for SAMs.

If you do some basic maths, you can easily see how puny the first strike capabilities of a USN CSG armed to take on China (IE the escorts would be loaded for maximum air defence) is if it is limited to tomahawks only. It’s nowhere near what would be required to take out even one of China’s island bases and keep it offline for any tactically relevant length of time.

China’s SCS main island bases are all close enough to be mutually supportive, and any significant USN deployments to the region would be mirrored by PLAN fleet strengths. That means the USN would not have enough time to effectively capitalise on any surprise first strike.

After the US has used up its first strike, it becomes a game of attrition, of missiles, planes and ships, and it looses on all accounts.

The SCS is the worse place the US can hope to fight a war and win.

The only attractions to military operations there would be that there are no significant US assets or interests on the line in immediate region. That means the US could potentially do a hit and run by launching its surprise alpha strike, and then immediately turn tail and head for home while declaring mission accomplished with limited risks to the attacking US forces. Any Chinese retaliatory strikes against US bases in the region would be complicated by the fact that they are mostly based in third party countries, so China risks forcing them into any conflict if it strikes at the closest and most obvious US bases in the region. Any attack on Guam, the closest purely US military target, would at best be symbolic, as that would flip the odds and place the PLAN at massive logistical and support disadvantage.

The other possible advantage with attacking China in the SCS is if the US wants to go nuclear with its first strike.

Conventional munitions would just be rearranging sand against those islands, but tactical nukes would either obliterate them outright, or at least make them uninhabitable.

Such an opening move would carry with it massive shock factor, while also complicating any Chinese response with a lack of suitable proportionate retaliatory targets. Especially if the strikes were carried by by B2s instead of USN cattier groups, who would have all retreated well back beforehand.
 

advill

Junior Member
Regretfully BOTH US & China appear to be preparing for Serious hostilities in the South China Sea. There are BIG risks for both countries. Regional hostilities could eventually lead to WW3. Is this what is wanted? The people of ALL nations want Peace, jobs, trade & to overcome the COVID-19 Pandemic which are the TOP priorities. The choice is left to the SANE leadership of both countries & NOT war mongers.
 

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Regretfully BOTH US & China appear to be preparing for Serious hostilities in the South China Sea. There are BIG risks for both countries. Regional hostilities could eventually lead to WW3. Is this what is wanted? The people of ALL nations want Peace, jobs, trade & to overcome the COVID-19 Pandemic which are the TOP priorities. The choice is left to the SANE leadership of both countries & NOT war mongers.

Tell that to the US. They are the provocateur
 

BMEWS

Junior Member
Registered Member
The USN can only conduct 24/7 surveillance on China’s SCS islands during peacetime. As soon as overt hostilities break out, none of their spy planes will be able to get anywhere close enough to those islands to take any pictures before being shot down.

US space based assets could be dazzled to make their imagery useless, or outright destroyed should things escalate that far.

China’s SCS islands are so big that it’s forces already depkoyedcould easily disperse, and short of a pearl harbour like surprise first strike by the Americans, they are unlikely to score devastating damage as PLA assets would disperse and redeploy from their peace time resting positions as soon as overt hostilities commence.

What damage US does manage to score some early in a campaign would all be temporary as those islands are essentially massive construction sites, with massive manpower, materials and machinery already in place and quickly repair any damage done.

With geopolitical realities, China will not be throwing the first punch. If there is to be conflict in the SCS, it will be the Americans who will be the ones to shoot first.

As such, the PLA’s current island garrisons are really only minimal tripwire forces. There aren’t much in the way of worthwhile targets to hit with a surprise alpha strike, but there are still enough punch in those islands to ensure any attacking enemy ships cannot come too close without assuming massive risk, and any opening amphibious assault attempt would be suicidal.

If the US cannot take those islands as their opening attack, which they cannot, the PLA reinforcements would be airlifted in within hours, and much more significant reinforcements will be deployed within days by ship from the mainland to bring those islands up to full combat capabilities.

With those islands fully garrisoned with defences, as well as with overlapping coverage by PLAN naval assets and air assets, those islands will be far harder to hit than any naval surface fleet, only difference being no number of missile hits can sink those islands.

Furthermore, without effective up to date intel to do damage assessment and find relocated priority targets, the US could use up its entire tomahawk inventory and still not be able to do much meaningful damage.

But you have to remember that the primary striking power of USN carrier fleets are their aircraft. Those fleets have a finite number of VLS cells, and any cells used for tomahawks are cells unavailable for SAMs.

If you do some basic maths, you can easily see how puny the first strike capabilities of a USN CSG armed to take on China (IE the escorts would be loaded for maximum air defence) is if it is limited to tomahawks only. It’s nowhere near what would be required to take out even one of China’s island bases and keep it offline for any tactically relevant length of time.

China’s SCS main island bases are all close enough to be mutually supportive, and any significant USN deployments to the region would be mirrored by PLAN fleet strengths. That means the USN would not have enough time to effectively capitalise on any surprise first strike.

After the US has used up its first strike, it becomes a game of attrition, of missiles, planes and ships, and it looses on all accounts.

The SCS is the worse place the US can hope to fight a war and win.

The only attractions to military operations there would be that there are no significant US assets or interests on the line in immediate region. That means the US could potentially do a hit and run by launching its surprise alpha strike, and then immediately turn tail and head for home while declaring mission accomplished with limited risks to the attacking US forces. Any Chinese retaliatory strikes against US bases in the region would be complicated by the fact that they are mostly based in third party countries, so China risks forcing them into any conflict if it strikes at the closest and most obvious US bases in the region. Any attack on Guam, the closest purely US military target, would at best be symbolic, as that would flip the odds and place the PLAN at massive logistical and support disadvantage.

The other possible advantage with attacking China in the SCS is if the US wants to go nuclear with its first strike.

Conventional munitions would just be rearranging sand against those islands, but tactical nukes would either obliterate them outright, or at least make them uninhabitable.

Such an opening move would carry with it massive shock factor, while also complicating any Chinese response with a lack of suitable proportionate retaliatory targets. Especially if the strikes were carried by by B2s instead of USN cattier groups, who would have all retreated well back beforehand.
If US tactical nukes China in the SCS, China can just nuke Guam or the Diego Garcia place
 
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