China's SCS Strategy Thread


Petrolicious88

Junior Member
Registered Member
I don't know why are we ruling out nuclear war? If China wins in any measure, The USA and its goons will use it.
War is but a continuation of politics itself. What is the political objective in using Nukes. I would say almost none, because neither the US or China is aiming to annihilate each other.

US is trying to roll back China's expansion into the SCS and contain Chinese influence in EU and abroad. None of these objects need to involve Nukes.

China is also not going to use nukes unless the survival of the state is in jeopardy or US troops land on China mainland in significant numbers.
 

EtherealSmoke

New Member
Registered Member
But you can flip that and ask if China is willing to put everything on the line for some islands in the SCS?
Yes, a lot more credibly than America. Objectively there's more core interests here for Beijing than Washington.

Also, China has absolute conventional escalation advantage in the SCS, but once things goes nuclear, it’s at best a tie, but most likely America still holds a significant escalation advantage, especially in light of the lack of clear proportional response targets for China to strike back against without an unacceptable risk of triggering all out nuclear war.

We also need to remember that Trump is a reckless gambler who is growing increasingly desperate as his poll ratings plummet.

I can easily see him throwing long term US
strategic interests out the window if he thinks a military clash will give him the fleeting boost he needs for a second term.

For example, he could easily escalate tensions until he has a pretext for military action, send in a SSGN to spam a few (conventionally armed) missile at the SCS islands from a few thousand miles away as fast as it can launch them and then head immediately back to base with minimal risk. He can then issue an ultimatum that he will respond with tactical nuclear weapons against China SCS bases if China retaliates.

I can see China limiting itself to non-direct responses in such a scenario, especially if little to not damage was done on the islands themselves.

For example, China could simply declare everything west of the first and maybe even second island chain as off limits to US military assets, with a shoot on sight order in place for any US military vessel or aircraft spotted in that area.

Trump gets to say he dropped the hammer on China and made the big bad boogeyman back down, while China effectively pushes the US out of its backyard.

I can see both sides living with that outcome.
I don't buy it. It's Trump and the USA trying to play good cop, bad cop, they're trying to bluff and I'd call it every day of the week. In fact, I think a lot of this rhetoric is psychological warfare designed to frighten the Chinese and induce CPC domestic infighting. Fits neatly inline with the administration's new push on Chinese regime change.

I'm actually impressed, it's one of America's more effective gambits of late, the consulate closure and SCS brinksmanship has caused more fear and dissonance in the Chinese media sphere than any other action this administration.

But let's bring things back. Let's look at America and Trump's hand here. Trump's a billionaire celebrity with global business interests, and his kids are modern-day royalty hobnobbing around the world. He's not a "reckless gambler." The American elite are the richest peoples that have ever existed in the history of humanity. They have the most to lose and they're playacting belligerence as a negotiating ploy. Pose them the question, "Do I want to die for Taiwan or the SCS?" and they'd fold every time.

If I were the Chinese leadership, I'd re-raise and double down every military escalation. As long as the top of the ladder ends in nuclear holocaust, I don't see how the side with the weaker will - Washington - won't back down.

In my opinion, any incident's gotta be some weird type of scenario like the one you posited. However, with any military action, how can Washington be so sure to control Chinese escalation?

Sure, Trump will win points if he can wipe out some artificial islands scot-free, and walk away boasting about putting down the Chinese yellow menace.

But if the Chinese call his bluff and respond in kind? Maybe say the Chinese start detaining American boats carrying "illegal arms shipments to Taiwan" re: the Yinhe. Maybe there's a Beidou malfunction and a missile lands in the courtyard of the American Institute of Taiwan. There's huge amounts of risk to any Trump gambit. If China escalates and he folds, he'd be completely toast and a historical laughingstock for all time.

As an aside, I'm assuming China has a more credible nuclear deterrent than 300 nuclear ICBMs. Like Mearsheimer said, if that's all China's got, there's gonna be some itchy trigger fingers in Washington.
 

AndrewS

Captain
Registered Member
As an aside, I'm assuming China has a more credible nuclear deterrent than 300 nuclear ICBMs. Like Mearsheimer said, if that's all China's got, there's gonna be some itchy trigger fingers in Washington.
Do you have a link to where Mearsheimer said this?
 

nastya1

New Member
Registered Member
Is China serious in defending its man made islands?

With 2 US carriers constantly in SCS and reportedly imminent US bombing of those islands i still dont see Chinese airfighters station in those man made islands.

Each man made island should carry around 30 fighters minimum.

Each nimitz class carrier can carry 90 planes and 2 of them would carry 180 planes.

Recently paracel island shows only 8 fighter planes (too low a number) and none at man made islands.

Is China being serious in fielding a credible defense?
It doesnt look like to me.

No wonder USN so arrogant in confronting China. China doesnt have the credible fighter numbers to match it. If USN has 180 with 2 carriers. China should at least have 100 stationed at those islands.
 
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hullopilllw

Junior Member
Registered Member
Is China serious in defending its man made islands?

With 2 US carriers constantly in SCS and reportedly imminent US bombing of those islands i still dont see Chinese airfighters station in those man made islands.

Each man made island should carry around 30 fighters minimum.

Each nimitz class carrier can carry 90 planes and 2 of them would carry 180 planes.

Recently paracel island shows only 8 fighter planes (too low a number) and none at man made islands.

Is China being serious in fielding a credible defense?
It doesnt look like to me.

No wonder USN so arrogant in confronting China. China doesnt have the credible fighter numbers to match it. If USN has 180 with 2 carriers. China should at least have 100 stationed at those islands.
....Dongfeng launched from mainland China from reach those carriers within minutes...
 

ougoah

Captain
Registered Member
....Dongfeng launched from mainland China from reach those carriers within minutes...
What if they don't hit? China's defence relies on maritime security in SCS and keeping the USN at least at first or second island chain distance from the mainland if any war were to happen against the US or Taiwan. Unlike what Plawolf said, those islands can't soak up near infinite damage. All they'd need to do is drop a bomb or two on the airfield and SAM sites and it's job done. Whatever aircraft using those islands can't return to them even if they took off to begin with. PLAN is barely able to hold off two US carrier fleets let alone the entire USN's pacific fleet. Better hope those AShBM and HGVs work well. Chinese SSNs are going to be a hassle to deal with and the proximity to the mainland means a lot more aircraft and missiles can even things up. Regional US bases must all be targeted and destroyed immediately using up a great deal of Chinese cruise and ballistic missiles. This will reduce the PLAN and PLAAF's problem to just the USN's pacific fleet and possibly Australia and UK's additionals.
 

ougoah

Captain
Registered Member
Its not even proven. that its more of assasin mace weapon and cant replace commonly used systems.
But at the same time, these things are just the icing on the cake. PLAN without AShBM and HGV weapons is already quite formidable with soon to be/nearly 5x Type 055s, 13x 052D, 6x 052C, 30x Type 054A, close to 40 quiet camping SSNs, 6x Type 093/B, YJ-18, YJ-12, and more AShM and ASh cruise missiles than I can remember, all fighting a regional war with full PLAAF support and where PLARF are going to send hundreds of cruise and ballistic missiles onto each regional US base. So even ignoring the AShBM and HGVs and in future H-20 and JH-xx support, it'll be a fairly challenging fight even for the USN which admittedly is just miles ahead of literally every navy on the planet when it comes to capability and quantity. China's advantage here is range of fighting and range of supply lines.
 

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