China demographics thread.


badoc

New Member
Registered Member
Haha
I heard of the Indian immigrants filling up places like in banking and IT sectors in Singapore and denying opportunities for local population. Didn't realize the food delivery sector also the same case. Then again if you had to import inefficiency it's probably better in food industry than in more important Industries lol.

Sorry mods for being off topic
It was delivery of Internet Services, not food.
It was like 30 to 60 mins per job, but waiting for Indians who say they are 5 mins away from home will usually be 30mins or even more than an hour.

Retired many years already, so not a recent event, haha.
Not off topic, we discussing why Indian immigrants not a great idea for Chinese demographics.
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lube

New Member
Registered Member
Yi Fuxian is one of them. Don't care to name everyone who continually dumpsters on inaccurate Chinese fertility data.
I've taken a dive into his views.

The extremely egregious thing is his conspiracy theory China's population peaked 10-20 years ago and is down to 1.2 billion people. The excess 250 million fake people is from a combination of incompetence and a wide-spanning conspiracy at all levels of China's governance. Quite an outlier position so it's not surprising no-one mentions his actual views when the media lines up for interviews.

Is it possible he's correct? Possible, but it's hard to prove. Big claims need big proof.
Everything that runs counter to this view is more evidence to him because it proves a greater coverup, etc etc. The 2020 census numbers was big proof to him that the conspiracy to fudge the numbers is failing. Check out his twitter if you want.

Questioning bad data from this conspiracy mindset is unhelpful to say the least.
 

Xsizor

Captain
Registered Member
I've taken a dive into his views.

The extremely egregious thing is his conspiracy theory China's population peaked 10-20 years ago and is down to 1.2 billion people. The excess 250 million fake people is from a combination of incompetence and a wide-spanning conspiracy at all levels of China's governance. Quite an outlier position so it's not surprising no-one mentions his actual views when the media lines up for interviews.

Is it possible he's correct? Possible, but it's hard to prove. Big claims need big proof.
Everything that runs counter to this view is more evidence to him because it proves a greater coverup, etc etc. The 2020 census numbers was big proof to him that the conspiracy to fudge the numbers is failing. Check out his twitter if you want.

Questioning bad data from this conspiracy mindset is unhelpful to say the least.
Exptreme positions are taken when you want to have your rhetoric be heard and received better.

Just like the numbers cited as deaths related to Great leap forward. Rigorous academics outside China point to 10-15 million likely casualties. Anti PRC polemicists like the 60-70 million figure better.
 

ZeEa5KPul

Senior Member
Registered Member
I think we're overlooking the beneficial effects of policies that aren't explicitly pro-natal, like the reforms to private tutoring and deflating the real estate bubble. If carried through and properly enforced, these policies will remove the two biggest economic disincentives to having children. I hope to see more efforts to regulate working hours in China (none of this 996 bullshit) and enforcing a healthy work-life balance. My feeling so far is that the "Common Prosperity" program has a lot of such goals in it, even if it doesn't explicitly state that raising birthrates is its objective.

There are other quasi-economic steps the government could take, which I consider "redistribution of opportunity" as opposed to outright redistribution of wealth (which should certainly be done as well). For instance, I think better educational opportunities like placement in better universities, as well as better job opportunities should be given to applicants with at least one sibling.

But the stickiness of this issue is cultural. Even if having children is economically incentivized, the culture will continue to have a retarding effect. This is why I focus on the point that having children is an emotional decision at least as much as it is an economic one. This is where the Chinese government will have to be more subtle than in the economic sphere. It must mould and guide the culture toward shedding anti-natal and anti-nuclear family elements and raising pro-family ones. What's needed here is a sustained and massive advertising campaign to encourage having children like the old advertising campaigns cigarette companies waged to get people to smoke.

We can view this through an economic lens by considering the "prestige economy." A lot of people's behaviours aren't just to acquire material wealth, but the more nebulous and vague prestige (or "clout", as kids these days put it). Having kids should be seen as accruing prestige, while being without marks one as a loser and failure.
 

Xsizor

Captain
Registered Member
I think we're overlooking the beneficial effects of policies that aren't explicitly pro-natal, like the reforms to private tutoring and deflating the real estate bubble. If carried through and properly enforced, these policies will remove the two biggest economic disincentives to having children. I hope to see more efforts to regulate working hours in China (none of this 996 bullshit) and enforcing a healthy work-life balance. My feeling so far is that the "Common Prosperity" program has a lot of such goals in it, even if it doesn't explicitly state that raising birthrates is its objective.

There are other quasi-economic steps the government could take, which I consider "redistribution of opportunity" as opposed to outright redistribution of wealth (which should certainly be done as well). For instance, I think better educational opportunities like placement in better universities, as well as better job opportunities should be given to applicants with at least one sibling.

But the stickiness of this issue is cultural. Even if having children is economically incentivized, the culture will continue to have a retarding effect. This is why I focus on the point that having children is an emotional decision at least as much as it is an economic one. This is where the Chinese government will have to be more subtle than in the economic sphere. It must mould and guide the culture toward shedding anti-natal and anti-nuclear family elements and raising pro-family ones. What's needed here is a sustained and massive advertising campaign to encourage having children like the old advertising campaigns cigarette companies waged to get people to smoke.

We can view this through an economic lens by considering the "prestige economy." A lot of people's behaviours aren't just to acquire material wealth, but the more nebulous and vague prestige (or "clout", as kids these days put it). Having kids should be seen as accruing prestige, while being without marks one as a loser and failure.
I pine my hopes on the lower middle income and poor sections of the economy. I believe incentives will generate the results a bit quickly in these demographic.
 

ansy1968

Major
Registered Member
I pine my hopes on the lower middle income and poor sections of the economy. I believe incentives will generate the results a bit quickly in these demographic.
@Xsizor bro my opinion, here in the 3rd world we had an overpopulation problem, less job, less opportunity and what do people do, with idle time they produce a lot of babies. The parents think that with a lot of kids at least one of them will get lucky and pull them out of poverty, this happen a lot especially in the province with couples having at minimum 8 kids to help in the field. With a large population, feeding and educating them is a problem, but at least our gov't had been able to provide and I gave them a passing mark. The end product ,we exported a lot of our surplus worker to the WORLD. Instead of reaping that expenses and rewards other country benefited. So what is the solution? Gov't Policy matters not thru birth control or population control but liberalizing the economy from foreign and oligarchy control. See we had the opposite problem, developed country population problem is about the quality of life, we in the developing world is a matter of survival, its a tribal instinct cause most of us here still depend on agriculture as our main industry.
 

ansy1968

Major
Registered Member
Import a lot of woman as care giver for the elderly like Taiwan does and let nature run it course. A lot of low income and fringe bachelor can have another Chance like this brother

@Hendrik_2000 bro a lot of mainland Chinese couples when they stay here doing business employed a lot of domestic helpers, they help raise their children so in return they treat their maids like family. When they returned to China they brought with them their maids and some had settled and married local men. And here I don't want to degenerate our Singaporean and HK compatriots BUT Mainland Chinese treat their Filipino domestic help or maids more humanely and with respect. We may demonized the Chinese BUT actually the Filipinos whom I talk to prefer working in China cause the CCP will protect them, the law is stringent regarding labor abuse.
 

badoc

New Member
Registered Member
@Hendrik_2000 bro a lot of mainland Chinese couples when they stay here doing business employed a lot of domestic helpers, they help raise their children so in return they treat their maids like family. When they returned to China they brought with them their maids and some had settled and married local men. And here I don't want to degenerate our Singaporean and HK compatriots BUT Mainland Chinese treat their Filipino domestic help or maids more humanely and with respect. We may demonized the Chinese BUT actually the Filipinos whom I talk to prefer working in China cause the CCP will protect them, the law is stringent regarding labor abuse.
Those Chinese who can afford to employ foreign helpers are usually affluent and are more likely to be generous.
If flood gates are opened, and ah mao ah gou can employ helpers so they can work to supplement expenses, it will be no different than the situation in Singapore and Hong Kong.

It is generally easier to work for those who dislike housework, so they may not be so demanding.
Woe betide those working for people who are meticulous in doing their housework and in their attention to their children and spouses and they had to work due to financial considerations, and had to leave their "baobei" to the helper's care.
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