China demographics thread.

[gadgetcool5]

One point of contention, AI will not need large datasets anymore, in fact its all going to be simulated

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In a postPeak world, China needs to reduce popullation anyway it can...

These articles refer to AI in a pre-established model, whereas I am referring to AI that learns from human behavior, which is far more complex than traffic rules or a game like Go. The notion that "AI will not need large datasets" is strange? Large datasets will always exist. AI is used to analyze large datasets. This is a form of application of AI. To say that it can exist without large datasets therefore is nonsensical.

China needs to stabilize and then increase its population.

 

[gadgetcool5]

In a postPeak world, China needs to reduce popullation anyway it can...

Sorry this statement is really nonsensical. Should China start killing its own people until the nation becomes extinct? I don't really understand this mindset.

 

[quantumlight]

These articles refer to AI in a pre-established model, whereas I am referring to AI that learns from human behavior, which is far more complex than traffic rules or a game like Go. The notion that "AI will not need large datasets" is strange? Large datasets will always exist. AI is used to analyze large datasets. This is a form of application of AI. To say that it can exist without large datasets therefore is nonsensical.

China needs to stabilize and then increase its population.

Cost benefit analysis... its much cheaper to buy the dataset, or hack it, or even get the trained nueral network end product, than to keep extra millions or billions of eaters around in a post peakoil world...

dont miss forest for trees

 

[gadgetcool5]

Cost benefit analysis... its much cheaper to buy the dataset, or hack it, or even get the trained nueral network end product, than to keep extra millions or billions of eaters around in a post peakoil world...

dont miss forest for trees

Well to buy it you need money, and for money you need workers... again population.
To hack it you need talented hackers... again population.
Peak oil means absolutely nothing. Oil is becoming obselete anyways.
If low population is good, then perhaps Singapore will become more powerful than China in the future? After all, low population...

 

[quantumlight]

Well to buy it you need money, and for money you need workers... again population.
To hack it you need talented hackers... again population.
If low population is good, then perhaps Singapore will become more powerful than China in the future? After all, low population...

Low population is not only factor, its also landmass... There is point of deminishing returns in popullation, China is well past that point

 

[gadgetcool5]

Low population is not only factor, its also landmass... There is point of deminishing returns in popullation, China is well past that point

So you think Russia will become more powerful than China because of its big landmass?
What do you think is the optimal population then?

 

[quantumlight]

So you think Russia will become more powerful than China because of its big landmass?
What do you think is the optimal population then?

Around USA current numbers like 300 million is ideal... also this is not PC to say but China has a lot of old useless eaters in America the government will just rob them of their pensions and let them wither away, ironically China better human rights in this regard gives US the competitive edge

 

[steel21]

AI dataset is outdated thinking, its all gonna be simulated going forward, its who has the largest supercomputers not largest population...

Nuclear tests are all simulated in supercomputers too

That's all you bruh, I'm out of my depths on AI.

I was just trying for a joke.

Anyhow, I really don't think Chinese demographic is as bad as we are led to believe.

The size/scale and dynamism of an economy is based on individual productivity. You can either have more producers or have your individual production unit increase in productivity.

China started being the worlds factory (and continue to be) when it was barely 1B back in 1980. When this population crunch is over, China will still be around 1.2B to 1.3B. Provided more of them are educated and has access to higher level or urbanization and technology, they will certainly be more productive than a 1.5B India in 2050 (if current Indian trend continue).

It's not all bad, there is a dividend in this reduction in population:

1. Resources will be more abundant per citizen (land/housing, education, food etc.), this will help in retaining highly trained personnel seeking a return on their economic input with a work/life balance.

2. A convergence in equity and assets for the those born in the 80's and after. China already have one of the highest home ownership rates. This increase in assets will hopefully fuel a consumption boom that will enable a creative and innovation economy.

While not an expert and have no unhindered access to data, I'm generally optimistic on Chinese demographics. Everything is achievable and manageable with proper application and integration of technology.

 

[gadgetcool5]

Around USA current numbers like 300 million is ideal... also this is not PC to say but China has a lot of old useless eaters in America the government will just rob them of their pensions and let them wither away, ironically China better human rights in this regard gives US the competitive edge

Oh my god we'll have to agree to disagree. I think far higher.

 

[SilentObserver]

Hey guys, lurker here. What do you think of this video?

The video makes the assumption of a homogeneous workforce across age groups in terms of productivity. The reality is different.

As stated previously most of China's elderly lives in rural areas and small towns. Many just transitioned out of subsistence farming and doesn't participate as much in Chinas economic circulation like that of the younger more educated and more productive population. The education for that cohort is quite low, with most having just elementary education. The largest cohort after the seniors has median education of middle school. When these people retire China's economy would have transitioned to have less opportunities for these people as there would be different skills match. Retirement cost of living isn't as expensive relatively speaking compared to developed nations.

There's a reason we see China's space agency engineers being mostly in their 20s and 30s, these educated people to fill those positions didn't exist previously in such numbers. Lead engineers for many civil projects like bridge building were also of similar age. That large educated cohort just didn't exist in decades past. The retiring cohort is not an exact match to the younger cohort as we would assume in a developed nation.

The large cohort that the video talked about supplied much of the cheap labor in factories and construction. This dividend will decrease but not totally cease as there's still many low income households. Anti poverty campaign seeks to end absolute poverty but not eliminate the low income population. Production of many low end tradable goods that can't be automated will likely move overseas, especially to ASEAN nations.

The video also referenced the decline of Japan's share of global manufacturing percentage. Although true, this highlights criticisms made by Chinese officials and members of the PLA years ago, despite massive growth in China's share of global manufacturing it still lacked ability to produce many core technologies that will act as chokepoints. You can produce all the textiles, toys, assembly (which counts as manufacturing) in the world but it wont support a modern economy by itself. Developed nations faced a decline in share of global manufacturing but they still hold the chokepoints of a modern society. The less educated elderly population in China aren't the ones producing those key technologies by in large.

I see China's economy continue to progress for the next few decades as it climbs the value chain and securing core technologies and offshoring of low end production. The demographic issue will become more impactful once the average Chinese education level approaches that of developed nations. China should seek to abandon limits to urban fertility since there are also many who choose to not have kids at all that needs to be balanced out. Also take a more distributed growth approach.