China demographics thread.


gelgoog

Captain
Registered Member
China is making a massive investment in electric mass transport from high speed trains between cities, subways, electric buses, etc.
Add to that electric cars and I think the chance of a massive oil shock is greatly reduced.
What still needs to be done is to replace utility vehicles with electric substitutes.
If that maglev does get built and it has the claimed speed it will replace aircraft transport inside China to a large degree as well.
Even more than what high-speed trains already do.
 

ILikeChina

Junior Member
Registered Member
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This guy "Yi Fuxian" says that China population started contracting in 2018.
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Guangdong's population will reach the level of Japan. Economic and social powerhouse.
 

gadgetcool5

Junior Member
Registered Member
Hey guys, lurker here. What do you think of this video?
I know what he is going to say without even watching the entire video. That because of China's (and larger East Asia's) demographic collapse the Asian century will not happen (please correct me if I'm wrong).

I completely agree that demographics is the biggest problem for China's long term power alongside technology, institutions and foreign relations. Take for example AI applications. AI requires a large dataset to advance. Thus, the more population, the better your dataset, the more advanced your AI will become. If India has twice the population of China, its AI potential will be greater because it has a larger pool of people to learn from.

It is important to distinguish between those topics that are actually pure demographics and those that are actual social issues. Things like competitive job market, competitive education, 996 work culture, productivity, housing prices, environment, and so on are social problems. They may be part of the reason for the demographic problem, but they are not really pure demographic issues. These problems can all be good or bad in a country of 1 billion or 10 million. These problems are separate, they need to be fixed regardless of the population. Demographics purely is related to the birth rate and population structure.

The current problem is that in modern life, children are a big cost to the parent, but society as a whole still needs children. The entire society gains the future benefit whereas the parent almost solely shoulders the cost. Therefore, public policy must find some way to compensate the parent for their sacrifices until the optimal population stability for society is reached. My view is that China should set a birth rate target similar to how it used to get GDP targets and continually adjust policy until the target is reached.
 
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quantumlight

Junior Member
Registered Member
I know what he is going to say without even watching the entire video. That because of China's (and larger East Asia's) demographic collapse the Asian century will not happen (please correct me if I'm wrong).

I completely agree that demographics is the biggest problem for China's long term power alongside technology, institutions and foreign relations. Take for example AI applications. AI requires a large dataset to advance. Thus, the more population, the better your dataset, the more advanced your AI will become. If India has twice the population of China, its AI potential will be greater because it has a larger pool of people to learn from.

It is important to distinguish between those topics that are actually pure demographics and those that are actual social issues. Things like competitive job market, competitive education, 996 work culture, productivity, housing prices, environment, and so on are social problems. They may be part of the reason for the demographic problem, but they are not really pure demographic issues. These problems can all be good or bad in a country of 1 billion or 10 million. These problems are separate, they need to be fixed regardless of the population. Demographics purely is related to the birth rate and population structure.

The current problem is that in modern life, children are a big cost to the parent, but society as a whole still needs children. The entire society gains the future benefit whereas the parent solely shoulders the cost. Therefore, public policy must find some way to compensate the parent for their sacrifices until the optimal population stability for society is reached. My view is that China should set a birth rate target similar to how it used to get GDP targets and continually adjust policy until the target is reached.
One point of contention, AI will not need large datasets anymore, in fact its all going to be simulated

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In a postPeak world, China needs to reduce popullation anyway it can...
 

steel21

Junior Member
Registered Member
I know what he is going to say without even watching the entire video. That because of China's (and larger East Asia's) demographic collapse the Asian century will not happen (please correct me if I'm wrong).

I completely agree that demographics is the biggest problem for China's long term power alongside technology, institutions and foreign relations. Take for example AI applications. AI requires a large dataset to advance. Thus, the more population, the better your dataset, the more advanced your AI will become. If India has twice the population of China, its AI potential will be greater because it has a larger pool of people to learn from.

It is important to distinguish between those topics that are actually pure demographics and those that are actual social issues. Things like competitive job market, competitive education, 996 work culture, productivity, housing prices, environment, and so on are social problems. They may be part of the reason for the demographic problem, but they are not really pure demographic issues. These problems can all be good or bad in a country of 1 billion or 10 million. These problems are separate, they need to be fixed regardless of the population. Demographics purely is related to the birth rate and population structure.

The current problem is that in modern life, children are a big cost to the parent, but society as a whole still needs children. The entire society gains the future benefit whereas the parent solely shoulders the cost. Therefore, public policy must find some way to compensate the parent for their sacrifices until the optimal population stability for society is reached. My view is that China should set a birth rate target similar to how it used to get GDP targets and continually adjust policy until the target is reached.
Are you sure Indian dataset is going to be useful?

1614708137388.png

It might screw up your enhanced learning models if irrational behavior are extrapolated and reinforced.
 

quantumlight

Junior Member
Registered Member
Are you sure Indian dataset is going to be useful?

View attachment 69407

It might screw up your enhanced learning models if irrational behavior are extrapolated and reinforced.
AI dataset is outdated thinking, its all gonna be simulated going forward, its who has the largest supercomputers not largest population...

Nuclear tests are all simulated in supercomputers too
 

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