China demographics thread.


SilentObserver

Junior Member
Registered Member
People who constantly bring up China demographics problem, conveniently forget that the us has worse demographic problem than China
Han Chinese will always be a majority in their own country, the same cannot be said about america, whites will be minority in around 2044
Without hispanic population growth, white america demographic actually is no better than China
They are declining and will be minority before half of this century
And american whites are not the kind that will ride away in sunset peacefully, their pride and arrogance won't allow it
Imagine the racial tensions and unrest that will happen when they become minority, trump is the primal scream of a declining white america
That is true, it's why we see the Democrats in the US are playing into social justice and racial politics. They want to latch onto their future base. Demographics is one of the main reasons we see this chasm in current American politics. The left wants to go with the demographic trends to maintain cohesion in the society while the right wants to latch onto the idea of white America to maintain a homogenous homeland and cautious of long term consequences of heterogeneity. We hear this from the slogans of the more vocal ones who tend to be more expressive of their true feelings, like proud boys who chanted
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referencing their belief in the globalist plan to dilute them demographically.

Traditionally when non-Americans hear of "America" they think of white Americans. Demographic reality is certainly changing. The
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compared to China's 37 in 2018.

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Overall America does have fairly stable demographics. When broken down into racial groups we see a dichotomy. White America under went a baby bust while America as a whole did not. This top heavy population pyramid is very similar to Japan. Minorities like hispanic, black, and multi-racial groups follow a population pyramid that of mildly fast growing "3rd world" populations in the process of stabilizing. Corporations understand this and knows where their consumer base is trending towards thus makes financial sense to voice support in current racial issues. The political and capital class tends to be older and concentrated in the boomer and silent generations thus are disproportionally represented in areas of influence.
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.
1612916286897.png

China also faces demographic challenges. If we take a pure economic perspective, I don't believe demographic decline China is facing will result in negative economic growth in the next few decades.

@8:50 the speaker talks about China's education levels by age. It presents large room for development of secondary and post secondary education to increase its people's productivity. It would likely be a better approach to steer a sizable portion to different trades rather than the American system where large amounts of the population compete for college/university degrees resulting in high education costs and many going into non-productive majors.

The demographic dividend based around the number of heads is coming to a close in China. The new demographic dividend comes from the newly educated population with a focus around STEM fields capable of operating an advanced economy. This population is growing quickly and has room to grow for the next few decades.

I don't believe the retiring of the large older cohort will result in any economic collapse. Majority of older folk live in rural areas and small towns where cost of living is below average, they also don't have the lifestyle expectations that of the West. These people on average are much less productive in dollar terms compared to the younger generation that will replace them in the economy. Cities on the other hand are much younger and the supporting demographic factors will still last a few decades. Beyond that it becomes uncertain.

Cost of living in mega cities like Beijing and Shanghai are structurally high and negatively affects fertility as they are hyper competitive. They serve a function but a young worker might not want to stay their for the rest of their life. Dispersed development is favourable for fertility in a developed nation. In my view the development of new lands will become a needed solution. What I mean is the transformation of previously unfavourable land to be habitable. This can range from land reclamation like what is occurring in Shanghai at the mouth of Yangzte river or an extended South-North water diversion program that will bring water to the North and North Western deserts. For those that travelled to the deserts of South Western US, you would likely have seen kilometer diameter crop fields grown through circular irrigation. Deserts can become crop land if there is sufficient water. In Arizona it was done through the damming of the Colorado river, building canals to divert it from reaching Mexico in its original volume and towards other parts of the US. The same can be done in China. It will open up vast amounts of previously harsh regions. Making lands habitable also increases industrial land capacity. Workers won't live in mass in a place without water.timg.jpg
 
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gadgetcool5

Junior Member
Registered Member
China doesn’t need 1.3 billion people. It’s taxing on the environment. Global warming will make things worse as a large population competes for water and basic resources.

What China needs is to increase productivity.

Increasing productivity is a given. Of course you want to increase productivity. There is no debate about that. But China's strength is its population. Its per capita GDP is not that impressive and is not likely to approach the US anytime soon. If China had the population of Japan it would be just as subjugated as Japan.

China has already contributed to decreasing the world population hugely, but it will make no difference if countries like India and in Africa keep pumping out more kids. As those countries develop, it will contribute to global warming anyway. The answer to global warming is to move towards a more environmentally friendly lifestyle and to go carbon neutral, not reduce your population. As far as resources there are plenty of resources and if not, why is China the one to decrease its population to sacrifice? China could go extinct tomorrow and the rest of the world will still be competing for resources.

I am worried for the parents of single boys if China is forced into a conflict over Taiwan or with any other country. What will happen to them if their only son is killed in combat? Most Chinese parents live only for their children. With the loss of an only son, their entire lives will basically be ruined and have gone to waste.

China needs to maintain at least some population to continue on as a nation. If not 1.3 billion, there needs to be at least some floor or target population that the government sets and adjusts policy to maintain. It cannot just keep going down. In South Korea, the birth rate is now only 0.84 child for every 2 women... that means the population halves every generation! Today their population is 50 million, in a generation it will drop to 25 million, no more than Taiwan. In another generation only 12.5 million. You cannot keep going on like this constantly shrinking.

A civilizational country like China deserves a huge population.
 
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bajingan

Junior Member
That is true, it's why we see the Democrats in the US are playing into social justice and racial politics. They want to latch onto their future base. Demographics is one of the main reasons we see this chasm in current American politics. The left wants to go with the demographic trends to maintain cohesion in the society while the right wants to latch onto the idea of white America to maintain a homogenous homeland and cautious of long term consequences of heterogeneity. We hear this from the slogans of the more vocal ones who tend to be more expressive of their true feelings, like proud boys who chanted
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
referencing their belief in the globalist plan to dilute them demographically.

Traditionally when non-Americans hear of "America" they think of white Americans. Demographic reality is certainly changing. The
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
compared to China's 37 in 2018.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Overall America does have fairly stable demographics. When broken down into racial groups we see a dichotomy. White America under went a baby bust while America as a whole did not. This top heavy population pyramid is very similar to Japan. Minorities like hispanic, black, and multi-racial groups follow a population pyramid that of mildly fast growing "3rd world" populations in the process of stabilizing. Corporations understand this and knows where their consumer base is trending towards thus makes financial sense to voice support in current racial issues. The political and capital class tends to be older and concentrated in the boomer and silent generations thus are disproportionally represented in areas of influence.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
.
View attachment 68599

China also faces demographic challenges. If we take a pure economic perspective, I don't believe demographic decline China is facing will result in negative economic growth in the next few decades.

@8:50 the speaker talks about China's education levels by age. It presents large room for development of secondary and post secondary education to increase its people's productivity. It would likely be a better approach to steer a sizable portion to different trades rather than the American system where large amounts of the population compete for college/university degrees resulting in high education costs and many going into non-productive majors.

The demographic dividend based around the number of heads is coming to a close in China. The new demographic dividend comes from the newly educated population with a focus around STEM fields capable of operating an advanced economy. This population is growing quickly and has room to grow for the next few decades.

I don't believe the retiring of the large older cohort will result in any economic collapse. Majority of older folk live in rural areas and small towns where cost of living is below average, they also don't have the lifestyle expectations that of the West. These people on average are much less productive in dollar terms compared to the younger generation that will replace them in the economy. Cities on the other hand are much younger and the supporting demographic factors will still last a few decades. Beyond that it becomes uncertain.

Cost of living in mega cities like Beijing and Shanghai are structurally high and negatively affects fertility as they are hyper competitive. They serve a function but a young worker might not want to stay their for the rest of their life. Dispersed development is favourable for fertility in a developed nation. In my view the development of new lands will become a needed solution. What I mean is the transformation of previously unfavourable land to be habitable. This can range from land reclamation like what is occurring in Shanghai at the mouth of Yangzte river or an extended South-North water diversion program that will bring water to the North and North Western deserts. For those that travelled to the deserts of South Western US, you would likely have seen kilometer diameter crop fields grown through circular irrigation. Deserts can become crop land if there is sufficient water. In Arizona it was done through the damming of the Colorado river, building canals to divert it from reaching Mexico in its original volume and towards other parts of the US. The same can be done in China. It will open up vast amounts of previously harsh regions. Making lands habitable also increases industrial land capacity. Workers won't live in mass in a place without water.View attachment 68600
That was very insightful information i learned a lot thanks @SilentObserver
What i worry the most is how volatile white americans are, they have been told all their lives that they are exceptional
Now they will become minority and with it they will lose many priveleges they had such as the power to determine election outcomes, declining standard of living, unemployement etc
How will they react to these? Events in the past years definetely not encouraging
It is likely that the future of america is worsening political instability, civil unrests culminating in a civil war cannot be discounted
 

ILikeChina

Junior Member
Registered Member
Only 80% of new born babies registered to the authorities.
That's shenanigans. I don't believe it's true after the end of the one-child policy. Someone is trying to save itself and keep this farce going. NBS data for a long time were different vs the family planning center. And the difference in 2019 was 30%, no way that much was unregistered.
 

foofy

New Member
Registered Member
That's shenanigans. I don't believe it's true after the end of the one-child policy. Someone is trying to save itself and keep this farce going. NBS data for a long time were different vs the family planning center. And the difference in 2019 was 30%, no way that much was unregistered.
2019 only 11 millions registered to local authority
 

ILikeChina

Junior Member
Registered Member
2019 only 11 millions registered to local authority
To local authority, but the official births at the end of 2019 were 14,65 m. Miraculously 11.79m grown to 14.65m.

1612987800918.png

All these numbers are fake. It is the biggest scandal in modern Chinese history, and it will have the biggest number of death penalties given to thousands of people when Xi is going to notice it. It is impossible to cover it while they still keep trying. Two child policy exposed all. All these guys at the top of the Ministry of Health and Family Planning are criminals.
 
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Appix

Junior Member
Registered Member
Population concerns need to become a top priority for Beijing and local governments and fast pronto. The National Bureau of Statistics will release population data in April 2021 according to SCMP.
 

SilentObserver

Junior Member
Registered Member
That was very insightful information i learned a lot thanks @SilentObserver
What i worry the most is how volatile white americans are, they have been told all their lives that they are exceptional
Now they will become minority and with it they will lose many priveleges they had such as the power to determine election outcomes, declining standard of living, unemployement etc
How will they react to these? Events in the past years definetely not encouraging
It is likely that the future of america is worsening political instability, civil unrests culminating in a civil war cannot be discounted
Thanks for the reply bajingan. Different people are taking it differently and the two main political parties plays into each side. We got a small taste of that in Ferguson, Charlottesville, Floyd riots, and storming of Capitol Hill.

I'm going to speak in general terms. The "right wing" has a strong presence in the police, military and control nearly all the food, mining and oil producing regions (including within democtat states), and private guns. As seen in the last election the divide is clearly between rural/towns and major cities. It reflects differences lifestyles, cultures and race.

In a full on civil war the right if unified does have strategic advantage. If civil war is averted we will see stronger left wing influence as they have demographic trends and elite institutions in their favour.

I'm not sure what will happen in 2-3 decades when whites will not be majority but still the largest group. It's not a single political bloc. We will likely see the continuation of "white flight" to more homogeneous areas.

Texas secession is another possible outcome as they embody many of values and lifestyle of the right, although that is changing as well with net migration and can flip democat in the future. The state was initially an independent nation for a decade and some are arguing it can legally secede the union. It's one of the few states that can be viable independent of the union. It is a net energy exporter, has much of the US high tech industries, growing population, ample land for development and a coastline. People within the union are moving there due to good prospects. Many Silicon Valley companies are considering on moving operations there, including tesla.

The demographic shift might make many more hard-core than before. We might see the rise of "sundown towns" a concept in America where certain towns have an implied rule of not allowing minorities once sun sets. In the 90s many radical right wing/white supremist groups disbanded. It's members were encourages to get normal jobs and many joined the police force.
 
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foofy

New Member
Registered Member
To local authority, but the official births at the end of 2019 were 14,65 m. Miraculously 11.79m grown to 14.65m.

View attachment 68627

All these numbers are fake. It is the biggest scandal in modern Chinese history, and it will have the biggest number of death penalties given to thousands of people when Xi is going to notice it. It is impossible to cover it while they still keep trying. Two child policy exposed all. All these guys at the top of the Ministry of Health and Family Planning are criminals.
2019 only 11.79 millions registered to local police

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而根据公安部发布的《二〇一九年全国姓名报告》,截至2019年12月31日,2019年出生并已经到公安机关进行户籍登记的新生儿共1179万,同口径下,2020年比2019年减少了175.5万人,下降幅度约为14.9%。
 

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