China demographics thread.

ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
Registered Member
the wrong term but if the public doesn't like mild social engineering with vaccine mandates (and successfully shot it down); how do you expect public opinion not to shoot down mass IVF with foreign surrogate mothers?
The public doesn't like zero COVID and lockdowns, which I'm sure your boss told you during your troll farm briefing. Why hasn't the public successfully shot down zero COVID?
 

hans_r

New Member
Registered Member
The public doesn't like zero COVID and lockdowns, which I'm sure your boss told you during your troll farm briefing. Why hasn't the public successfully shot down zero COVID?
because there's still substantial support for zero-COVID/lockdowns and since it is already a program that exists, opposition is harder to curry than for policies that are in their planning phase (for example: property taxation which has only been delayed 800 times)
 

Tianlong

New Member
Registered Member
I've been waiting for someone to activate this stupid thread again so I can drop this:

The Solution to China's Demographic Problem

I want to begin by clarifying exactly what I mean by "demographic problem" and what kind of solution this essay will present. By "demographic problem" I mean the worst manifestation of the "China is doomed" rhetoric spreading like wildfire in Western popular culture. Let's take as true that China's population will fall by half by 2050, why not?

The solution I consider won't be of an economic kind like improved productivity or a socioeconomic kind like incentives for people to have more children. Let's take the Western position that China's productivity won't grow and every social program and incentive has a 100% failure rate. I also won't consider solutions like raising the retirement age or restricting pension payments since the Orientalist conception of "filial piety" won't allow that. I won't consider the improvement in education that's been going on for decades in China to be of any relevance, or the difference in productivity between rural and urban populations - all individuals in the 16-64 age group are entirely interchangeable.

In short, I'm considering that the most ridiculous Western caricatures of the problem are entirely correct and every conventional solution will fail. Despite those assumptions, I will present a simple solution that will entirely solve the problem and can be implemented today. Sound too good to be true? Read on...

First, the Chinese government is to institute a massive program to gather reproductive cells from the population. There's any number of ways to do this - cash payments, career incentives, etc. Once the cells are gathered, they'll be passed on to another massive program that will use the latest and greatest in biotechnology and artificial intelligence to determine the optimal combinations of these cells into embryos. Once a bank of these embryos is ready, China is to import a large number of young women from poor countries around the world as paid surrogate mothers, and the children born from this program will be raised in state orphanages and educated in boarding schools.

The great feature of this solution is its scalability. Some variant of this is already done on a small scale with celebrities in the West. Wealthy women who don't want to go through pregnancy and childbirth but they still want biological children pay surrogate mothers to carry their embryos to term. What I propose is to massively scaling this up and bringing it under the control of the state.

Another major benefit to this program over "natural" birth is the improved quality of the resulting population. Not only are they optimally combined and selected for traits like intelligence before they're even implanted, they will be raised by the state - which will ensure they're brought up with the proper values and virtues and the responsibilities Chinese citizenship entails.

Now, no solution is perfect, even one as elegant as this. Let's take a look at some of the challenges standing in the way of its implementation.

Cost: Doing IVF on this scale will - at least in the short term - be quite expensive. However, I expect that once China scales up this technology, costs will drop like they did with solar panels. The logistics and labour of raising such a large number of children will also be costly, but given the benefit a generation of Qian Xuesens will bring, those burdens are what you call suffering from success.

Supply of surrogate mothers: I consider myself an avid observer of world affairs but I admit that I've lapsed in keeping up with things lately. Even so, I don't think the world has changed so much that impoverished young women are now a thing of the past. With the expansion of world population (especially in the poorest countries) and mounting climate catastrophe, I don't think we need worry about the supply of this particular input.

Popular opposition: I'd be concerned about this one if China were a liberal democracy. Thankfully, it isn't.

PS: To give credit where it's due, the seeds for this idea were planted by this discussion between Richard Hanania and Steven Chu. While they don't propose this idea, their discussion about IVF set my own thoughts down this direction.

A serious question: were you ever even close to having children of your own?
 

ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
Registered Member
A serious question: were you ever even close to having children of your own?
This forum really suffers from the lack of emojis because a yawn would be particularly apt here. Apparently asking for a serious critique is asking too much.
 

Chilled_k6

Junior Member
Registered Member
I kind of expect a baby boom following Taiwan reunification in the same way there was a baby boom post-WW2. National rejuvenation should help foster a more self-confident Chinese mindset.
I don't think this will be the case. Chinese people are more confident than ever, but the total number of births, birth rate and fertility rate have dropped like a rock. Covid obviously accelerated it.

Fertility rate decline may bottom out soon and perhaps even rise somewhat depending on how effective government measures are, but I think birth rate will most likely stay around this level for many years. Reason being the number of people in the child bearing group (ie. 25-35 ish) will continue to decline every year. China's population continued moderate growth despite the one child policy for decades, now the momentum is the other way since the structure of the population has changed.
 

Eventine

Junior Member
Registered Member
The "nuclear family" is a Western invention, specifically an American one. Its history is maybe a hundred years. So are mass produced contraceptives, women's education, and both parents being wage slaves. So is excess consumerism and capitalist ownership of the means of production. All post-industrial phenomenon. There is no empirical evidence any of this is sustainable. No more so than democracy was in Athens or the republic in Rome.

The West is heading towards self-destruction. What's important for China is to avoid the fate of the West. This means not buying into self-destructive Western ideologies like "automation will solve all our problems" or "the world needs less people." Robots are not humans. They replace humans. They have no society. They replace society. Western climate activists will have you believe that less humans is a positive future. What they actually mean is less of you.

Where all this finally leads is human extinction, or more precisely, the extinction of nations that follow the Western way. Sooner or later, the world will wake up to the suicidal nature of modern Western culture. But it's going to take a terrible, horrible first example. Like a society literally collapsing from the lack of people. Currently that's looking to be South Korea or Taiwan. Unfortunately East Asia has surpassed the West in the trend; and if China wants to not also be an example that wakes up the rest of the world, then it needs to get its priorities straight right now and stop following the rest of East Asia.

It doesn't need to be anything extreme. The policy required has already been discussed. It comes down to taxing single people to support families, so that you get back to a society in which marriage and family are incentivized, and children are seen as an investment, instead of a cost.

The reason you have to do this is because modern consumerism is actually like a drug - an addiction that perverts people's values to such an extent that they end up acting against their own biological need to survive and reproduce. Just look at all the young people who aren't willing to marry or have children because it'd "decrease their quality of life." By which they mean buy, buy, buy.

Correction won't happen naturally - having the older generation pressure the younger generation to start families isn't enough, in the same way your parents can't convince you out of a heroin addiction. You have to deal with it like you deal with opium. The government must get involved.
 

Eventine

Junior Member
Registered Member
This forum really suffers from the lack of emojis because a yawn would be particularly apt here. Apparently asking for a serious critique is asking too much.
Here's a serious critique - and I say this, having once thought of ideas similar to yours:

The problem with breeding and raising children in mass state-run facilities is that it breaks down the fundamental fabrics of society, which is the institution of the family. Not the "nuclear family" that the West promotes, but the extended, clan-based family that humanity has evolved around for hundreds of thousands of years.

The family is the foundation of society. Every social function derives from it. Your first and strongest relationships come from your family. They form the bed rock of bonds from which other relationships grow, the basis of cultural transmission, and the most basic reason for collaboration. This latter aspect is particularly important, because children learn to care about others through their interactions with their family, who provide them with love without condition. You can't get that from hired nurses.

Children without families, who grow up in orphanages, are often "broken"; they suffer from problems like persistent insecurity, anxiety, delinquency, depression, anger, and aggression. Even if this can be solved with better institutional care, there is still no telling what the effects on society at large will be. When these children graduate as adults and begin to interact with natural families, it is likely there will be conflict and resentment. That could cause serious social problems and divides within society, and the consequences are not in any way predictable.

Just as importantly, however, you don't need to go this extreme. Solving the modern fertility problem is just about changing the reward incentive. Fix the addiction to Western consumerism. Reward the family over the individual. Send the signal to single people that they can either start families themselves, or see their extra income go to support those that do.

Most likely, the above would work; and if it doesn't, then we can talk about extreme solutions.
 

Totoro

Major
VIP Professional
Basically, taxes *for everyone* would then need to start going up. Probably by quite a bit. Enough so they can pay for:
direct costs of raising and schooling a kid until they're either 18 or perhaps even out of college.
indirect costs of larger house, larger car for the extra kid.
Indirect costs for the state, of additional kindergartens, schools, medical facilities etc, all the infrastructure to match the additional kids being born.

And all that for roughly additional 8 or so million kids per year. Costs might amount to some 100 to 150 thousand USD per kid. So lets say 800 billion to 1.2 trillion USD extra for the state budget, per year. Lets say roughly one fifth more than the current state budget for China. Costs per kid are very approximate and I'd appreciate someone else doing a more precise rundown.

Raising state revenues by 20 percent through other means and not taxes in the short term - Not sure that's doable. Short term is key, though. While one might be tempted to distribute the costs over 18 or more years - much better incentive would be if the state paid people out in just several huge instalments. Literally to pay off most of the costs within the first few years. Perhaps make some work like loans - so if the the kid moves out of the country or dies, parents need to repay some of the loan. Or they can choose not to accept the money in the first place.

As for the impact of such taxes on economy - eh, it might be prohibitively high. (some ten years ago taxes made up little under 90% of all state revenue. not sure what's the situation today)
 

ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
Registered Member
The problem with breeding and raising children in mass state-run facilities is that it breaks down the fundamental fabrics of society, which is the institution of the family. Not the "nuclear family" that the West promotes, but the extended, clan-based family that humanity has evolved around for hundreds of thousands of years.
I could not disagree more. I appreciate the seriousness of your response and I don't mean to belittle you at all by saying this, but you have a fundamentally conservative worldview I don't share at all in that you think the answers to social ills lie backward. In my view the answers - if there are any - lie forward, not back. As you ably argued in your prior post, capitalism destroyed the old familial and clan-based attachments communities had. The new relations of production detached people from their land and packed them into factories, and eventually into the skyscraper shoeboxes of the modern city.

I applaud capitalism for having done this. I don't have any sentimental attachments to old traditions and relationships, and despite its pathologies capitalism has managed to raise human productivity and technological advancement to heights antecedent societies couldn't have dreamt. These relationships have become untenable; there are still clan-based societies that demonstrate by their example just what can be expected from them in the modern age: Syria and Libya.

My proposal replaces both the backward petty regionalism and tribalism of the clan-based social fabric and the cultural wasteland of capitalism with a much better fabric. These children would grow up with the idea of China itself as their family and understand their duty to it.
The family is the foundation of society. Every social function derives from it. Your first and strongest relationships come from your family. They form the bed rock of bonds from which other relationships grow, the basis of cultural transmission, and the most basic reason for collaboration. This latter aspect is particularly important, because children learn to care about others through their interactions with their family, who provide them with love without condition. You can't get that from hired nurses.
That depends on how you define "family." As I pointed out above, these children would grow up with the idea of the state as their extended family and themselves as their immediate family.

There is a loose historical precedent to this: the janissaries of the Ottoman Empire. These were military units famed for their cohesion and discipline formed by abducting young children from Christian families, converting them to Islam, and raising them in military camps (the legacy of this institution is a large part of the reason there's such hatred between Muslims and Christians in the Balkans today). These children formed very close bonds with one another and eventually became a powerful political force.

Of course, in my idea the children wouldn't be abducted but born to surrogate mothers and they would be raised to be scientists and engineers (primarily, they could of course choose to study whatever they wish once they were old enough to make the decision), not soldiers.
Children without families, who grow up in orphanages, are often "broken"; they suffer from problems like persistent insecurity, anxiety, delinquency, depression, anger, and aggression. Even if this can be solved with better institutional care, there is still no telling what the effects on society at large will be. When these children graduate as adults and begin to interact with natural families, it is likely there will be conflict and resentment. That could cause serious social problems and divides within society, and the consequences are not in any way predictable.
As I stated previously, that's a function of the children being unwanted rather than being raised in orphanages per se. Unwanted children born to conventional families often exhibit the same pathologies.
Just as importantly, however, you don't need to go this extreme. Solving the modern fertility problem is just about changing the reward incentive. Fix the addiction to Western consumerism. Reward the family over the individual. Send the signal to single people that they can either start families themselves, or see their extra income go to support those that do.

Most likely, the above would work; and if it doesn't, then we can talk about extreme solutions.
That's reasonable. I was motivated by a desire to solve this demographic problem in its most extreme, caricatured manifestation because it's the only argument China-haters have with even a semblance of validity, so I accept that my solution has a radical character. I feel better knowing that it's sitting in the desk of some government planning bureau and can be pulled out should the need arise.
 

Jiang ZeminFanboy

Senior Member
Registered Member
Xi Jinping about family values

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Filial piety is a traditional virtue very much valued by Chinese society. President Xi Jinping, also general secretary of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and chairman of the Central Military Commission, has on many occasions stressed the importance of family virtues and traditions.

The following are some highlights of his quotes:

-- A family is the smallest unit of a nation while a nation is thousands of families put together.

-- We should promote filial piety and family harmony, encourage people to take on family responsibilities, cultivate fine family traditions, and take care of the elderly.

-- Mothers should pass on to their children the passion for study, the spirit of hard work, and the love of the motherland to help the young generation nurture good character and grow healthily to become adults who contribute to the country and the people.

-- We need to help women strike a balance between family and work to become women of the new era who can take up social responsibilities while contributing to their families.
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As Spring Festival ends, president's reminder hits home

The weeklong Spring Festival holiday ended on Wednesday after the reunion of numerous Chinese families around the world. And as President Xi Jinping put it, such family reunions are important to fulfill the Chinese Dream of national rejuvenation.

"During Spring Festival, when members of a family get together, we feel that reunion is happiness and unity is strength," Xi said at a gathering on Feb 14, two days ahead of Spring Festival.

Spring Festival, or Lunar New Year, is regarded as the most important traditional festival for those of Chinese origin, characterized by family reunions, feasts and performances.

"We should nurture and practice core socialist values, foster the traditional virtues of the Chinese nation and love both family and the country," said Xi, who is also general secretary of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and chairman of the Central Military Commission.

The president urged the people to integrate their personal and family dreams with the Chinese Dream of national rejuvenation.

"We should pool the wisdom and strength of more than 1.3 billion Chinese people in more than 400 million households to strive for the great success of socialism with Chinese characteristics for a new era and realize the Chinese Dream of national rejuvenation," he said.

Family bonds stressed

Xi has stressed the importance of family bonds, family love and family values in his speeches in recent years.

While addressing the annual Spring Festival greetings on Jan 26, 2017, Xi called on the nation to love families and friends. Love should reach to every family and bring warmth to all Chinese like a spring breeze blowing across the nation, he said.

"The Chinese people have always valued love and high morality," Xi said. He urged people not to neglect their families, comrades and loved ones, no matter how busy they are in their work.

In his Lunar New Year greetings on Feb 17, 2015, Xi stressed family bonds and family education.

Xi said that Chinese traditions and virtues of family harmony and affection should not be forgotten so as to ensure that the young grow up healthily and senior citizens are taken care of.

"Family is the basic cell of society and the first school of our life," Xi said. No matter how time has changed, the family value, family education and family building must be stressed so that the millions of families become important points for national development, ethnical progress and social harmony, he added.

The president has highlighted the importance of family and stressed family bonds, family values and family education on many occasions.

Noted in report

In his report to the 19th CPC National Congress, Xi called for efforts to cultivate and observe core socialist values through such measures as encouraging extensive public involvement, starting with families and children.

"We will encourage our people to strive for excellence and to develop stronger virtues, respect the elderly, love families and be loyal to the country and the people," Xi said in the report.

While meeting with representatives to the first National Conference of Model Families in December 2016, Xi told a story about family education. The conference was the first of its kind to honor model families selected nationwide. A total of 300 model families won the honor.

"When I was a child, my mother gave me a picture-story book series-The Legend of Yue Fei. One of its more than 10 volumes illustrates Yue Fei's mother tattooing four characters meaning 'serve the country with the utmost loyalty' across his back," Xi said, adding that the story deeply impressed him.

Through the story, Xi told parents to pass down sound moral values to their children from an early age, help them cultivate sound minds and ensure their healthy growth so that they will be useful to the country when they grow up.

"Parents should instruct their children through word and deed, giving them both knowledge and virtue and practicing what they teach. They should help their children button the first button in their lifetime and take the first step on the ladder of life," Xi said.

Only by realizing the Chinese dream of national rejuvenation can the dreams of families come true, Xi added, calling on the people to integrate their love for the family with their love for the nation.

Museum established

He Yaomin, vice-president of Renmin University of China, said that Xi has highlighted the significance of family values in cultivating socialism's core values.

To implement Xi's important instructions on family values, Renmin University of China has established the country's first museum of family letters, he said, adding that the museum has played an important role in promoting positive family values.

Tian Xueli, deputy Party secretary of Liaoning Daily, said that as a Party-run newspaper, it has shouldered its responsibility in promoting traditional Chinese culture, including family values.

"General Secretary Xi Jinping has stressed that no matter how the times change, we should always respect family values," he said.

In January, Liaoning Daily published a set of six books that include nearly 200 letters from family members, such as from a son to a father or a husband to a wife, and more than 100 family stories.

Through these letters, the books show the significance of family values in the process of practicing socialism's core values and the passing on of traditional culture from generation to generation.

Value vital to fight graft

In his speech at the Sixth Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Commission for Discipline Inspection in October, Xi said some leading officials have been found encouraging their family members to accept bribes and the children of many officials have made illegal gains by using the influence of their parents.

"Degraded family value is always an important cause of officials gravely violating discipline and laws," Xi said.

For example, Liu Decheng, son of Liu Tienan, former vice-minister of the National Development and Reform Commission, accepted bribes including money, a Porsche car and a villa in suburban Beijing. Liu Tienan was sentenced in December 2014 to life imprisonment and his son also was tried.

While addressing the first National Conference of Model Families in December 2016, Xi called on top officials to take the lead in maintaining family values and learning from role models such as Jiao Yulu, Gu Wenchang and Yang Shanzhou.

Leading officials and cadres at all levels should teach their children and families to be law-abiding, frugal and self-reliant, Xi said.
 
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