Ask anything Thread

[AndrewS]

Following the reasoning, making an estimate for the PLAN fleet until 2035:

1 CVF Type 001 - 65,000 tons
1 CVF Type 002 - 65,000 tons
2 CV Type 003 - 85,000 tons(170,000)
2 CVN Type 004 - 100,000 tons(200,000)
9 CCG Type 055B - 13,000 tons (117,000)
24 CCG Type 055 - 13,000 tons (312,000)
10 DDG Type 052DL - 7,500 tons (75,000)
50 DDG Type 052D - 7,500 tons (375,000)
6 DDG Type 052C - 7,500 tons (45,000)
10 FFG Type 054B - 4,500 tons (45,000)
50 FFG Type 054A - 4,000 tons(200,000)
2 FFG Type 054 - 4,000 tons (8,000)
50 FFL Type 056A - 1,800 tons(90,000)
22 FFL Type 056 - 1,800 tons (39,600)
8 SSK Kilo 636 M - 3,100 tons (24,800)
22 SSK Type 039C - 2,300 tons(50,600)
14 SSK Type 039B - 2,300 tons(32,200)
3 SSK Type 039A(or Type 041) - 1,900 tons (5,700)
13 SSK Type 039 - 2,200 tons(28,600)
5 SSB Type 032 - 3,800 tons(19,000)
6 SSGN Type 095 - 7,900 tons (47,400)
12 SSN Type 093B - 7,000 tons (84,000)
4 SSN Type 093A - 7,000 tons (28,000)
2 SSN Type 093 - 7,000 tons(14,000)
4 SSBN Type 096 - 16,000 tons (64,000)
8 SSBN Type 094 - 11,000 tons (88,000)
3 LHA Type 076 - 48,000 tons(135,000)
1 LHD Type 075B - 45,000 tons
8 LHD Type 075 - 40,000 tons (320,000)
8 LPD Type 071B - 25,000 tons(200,000)
8 LPD Type 071 - 25,000 tons(200,000)
15 LSD Type 072A - 4,800 tons (72,000)
10 AEFS Type 901A - 48,000 tons (480,000)
2 AEFS Type 901 - 48,000 tons (96,000)
2 AKS Type 904B - 15,000 tons(30,000)
1 AKS Type 904A - 15,000 tons
1 AKS Type 904 - 11,000 tons
8 AEFS Type 903A - 25,000 tons(200,000)
2 AEFS Type 903 - 25,000 tons (50,000)

= 4.146.900 tonnage

Analysis considering the main PLAN naval units, excluding the 100-1,500 ton naval units. Removing the SSKs and corvettes, the number of naval units with oceanic capacity is around 272 ships. That number is pretty close to what USN Rear Admiral Michael McDevitt claims. Retired USN Rear Admiral Michael A. McDevitt made an estimate that I find very interesting, the PLAN would have 270 blue water ships by 2035. The next 15 years will be 140 blue water ships launched to increase the ship count and some to replace the old ones, this mix will include 5 to 6 NAe in 15 years. In addition to the 270 ships with blue water capacity, they will have an average of 160 smaller ships to operate in nearby seas, this will give the PLAN a force of 430 ships, by far the largest in the world and will certainly be world class.

So I'd put the Type-052D numbers a bit higher, plus add another 30 Frigates

I also see a lot more Type-076s rather than Type-075s
Type-075s don't actually spend much of their time conducting amphibious operations, so they might as well be Type-076s which can act as UCAV carriers supporting the fleet carriers.

Also on SSNs, I'd go with a bare minimum of 30 new SSN equivalents

We've seen not just one, but two huge submarine construction halls recently built at the Huludao nuclear shipyard.
Just one of those construction halls could easily assemble 3 SSNs per year

On the Type-091s, they have 4 gas turbines to keep up with carrier groups. So they should match the number of fleet carriers.
Everything else should be fine with Type-903A replenishment ships.

We actually have an old PLAN Orbat thread if you want to discuss further

 

[Lethe]

Looking at the footnotes, I see that the author makes extensive use of a 1983 book by US naval intelligence writer David G. Muller,

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, which I have now ordered.

Reading from this book (p. 169):

The only known defection of a PRC naval vessel took place in January 1966, an event notable chiefly for its uniqueness [....] According to a later account, the seven sailors manning a small logistics craft in the northern Taiwan Strait overpowered the three senior men aboard and took the vessel to the Nationalist-held island of Mazu. They had no opportunity to enjoy the promised monetary reward, however. Chinese MiGs attacked the transport aircraft flying the crew from Mazu to Taiwan, killing everyone aboard.

Does anyone have more information regarding this incident, or any other defections post-1983?

 

[szbd]

Reading from this book (p. 169):



Does anyone have more information regarding this incident, or any other defections post-1983?

No.3213 torpedo boat

 

[szbd]

This is what I've got as major warship construction for the 2021-2025 plan

20 Type-054A Frigates
1+ Type-054B Frigates
20 Type-052D/E Destroyers
8 Type-055 Large Destroyers
1+ Type-076 LHDs with EMALs catapults
1+ Supercarriers (85k tonnes) with EMALs catapults

This doesn't include submarines or amphibs

In the following 5 years, I expect a further acceleration in the pace of naval construction

I think the 052 series production will be stopped soon. And I doubt there will be 054B in near future given so many extra 054As. Also, I suppose there will be gas turbine used in the next gen. frigate, so by tradition the type won't be 054x.

 

[AndrewS]

I think the 052 series production will be stopped soon. And I doubt there will be 054B in near future given so many extra 054As. Also, I suppose there will be gas turbine used in the next gen. frigate, so by tradition the type won't be 054x.

It's possible that the 052 series will be discontinued.

But look at the existing ship procurement costs, which should be representative of the ongoing maintenance

At each level, you see the ship cost, ship tonnage and the number of VLS cells almost double, along with other capability increases

Type-054A 1.8 Billion RMB - 32 VLS - 4000tonnes - Frigate
Type-052D 3.5 Billion RMB - 64 VLS - 7500tonnes - Destroyer
Type-055 6 Billion RMB - 112 VLS - 13000tonnes - Cruiser (Large Destroyer)

Now, we don't know what the future cost will be for an updated Type-054/057 Frigate, but it should be in the same range
So if you dispense with the Type-052, then you're going to have to start using Type-055 cruisers for any mission that a Frigate can't handle
But a Type-055 cruiser is a juicy enough target in itself, that it needs its own screening ships

Also remember that you only need roughly 30 ships to justify an infrastructure for an entirely new hull/propulsion platform.
After the current 2021-2025 construction plan, I reckon the PLAN will be adding a bare minimum of 40 destroyers and 40 frigates in the following 10 years, but these will be a higher-end variety primarily tasked with high-intensity blue-water operations to the 2nd Island Chain

The World Bank has the Chinese economy being about 25% larger than the US in terms of actual output, and the Australian government white papers have this growing to twice the size of the US in about 10 years time. So if anything, China's naval construction is only going to accelerate from today's levels.

So I think we will still see the existing tiers between Frigate, Destroyer and Cruiser in the PLAN.
Of course, that is in addition to the 72 Corvettes which sit a tier below Frigates

 

[gelgoog]

I think Type 052D is still a viable and highly cost effective hull. I doubt it will simply be replaced with the 055.

 

[Suetham]

So I'd put the Type-052D numbers a bit higher, plus add another 30 Frigates

I also see a lot more Type-076s rather than Type-075s
Type-075s don't actually spend much of their time conducting amphibious operations, so they might as well be Type-076s which can act as UCAV carriers supporting the fleet carriers.

Also on SSNs, I'd go with a bare minimum of 30 new SSN equivalents

We've seen not just one, but two huge submarine construction halls recently built at the Huludao nuclear shipyard.
Just one of those construction halls could easily assemble 3 SSNs per year

On the Type-091s, they have 4 gas turbines to keep up with carrier groups. So they should match the number of fleet carriers.
Everything else should be fine with Type-903A replenishment ships.

We actually have an old PLAN Orbat thread if you want to discuss further

I've put 50 units in because it's planned so far, and half that number has still been built, so I didn't put more units into service until 2035 and added the extended version of the Type 052D, the Type 052DL or Type 052E if if we were to add numbers, it would be in the extended version, being between 10-25 units until 2035, which would give a maximum count of 75 units only for the PLAN's light destroyer. With the addition of the Type 055 and Type 055B of 31-33 units in total, between cruisers (or heavy destroyer) and light destroyer we would have a total of 93-108 units. These numbers are similar to the US Navy in the Cold War in the 1980s.

From what I understand, the Type 076 does not conduct amphibious operations, it will be used as air support from carriers including amphibians, so I don't see much need for PLAN to operate more Type 076 than Type 075, the number should be equal or half to the Type 076.

The number of SSNs I actually put the numbers in thinking about what the PLAN could have, but the capacity of the shipyards doesn't mean there will be a big increase quickly in units released annually, you may be right about the number of 30 SSNs, but I'm not I see a reason why the PLAN will be operating more than 25 SSNs by 2035, I don't doubt that after the 2035 deadline, halfway through the century, the number of SSN units would skyrocket, but in the 2035 deadline, I honestly don't I foresee the PLAN with 30 SSNs.

Thanks for the deference to the Type 901 number. So, the number should be fixed in 6 units by 2035. And also for the indication of the topic PLAN Orbat, I hadn't researched before. There's a way to move the topic, I predict that this conversation will extend.

 

[Suetham]

The World Bank has the Chinese economy being about 25% larger than the US in terms of actual output, and the Australian government white papers have this growing to twice the size of the US in about 10 years time. So if anything, China's naval construction is only going to accelerate from today's levels.

So I think we will still see the existing tiers between Frigate, Destroyer and Cruiser in the PLAN.
Of course, that is in addition to the 72 Corvettes which sit a tier below Frigates

The long-term construction pace can shift from smaller units to larger units, this means that the number of naval units can stabilize or fall during a certain period when smaller units start to decommission. By 2035, the number of 460 naval units with +270 units having the capacity to operate in blue waters and the rest operating in nearby seas is a good number for the PLAN to stabilize even thinking about the scenario until 2050. Or do you think that the PLAN will increase the pace more and more?

 

[blindsight]

I tend to believe the latest rumor that PLAN has ordered 20 more 054Ds. I think PLA foresee a war (Taiwan or SCS) in this decade, so quantity matters.

 

[AndrewS]

The long-term construction pace can shift from smaller units to larger units, this means that the number of naval units can stabilize or fall during a certain period when smaller units start to decommission. By 2035, the number of 460 naval units with +270 units having the capacity to operate in blue waters and the rest operating in nearby seas is a good number for the PLAN to stabilize even thinking about the scenario until 2050. Or do you think that the PLAN will increase the pace more and more?

It's a general statement on how much money the PLAN will spend on new warship construction.

With a much larger economy in 10 years, you would expect military spending to be a lot higher.

We'll have to see what the exact mix of ships will end up as.

I also think 2050 projections are just too far into the future.