Ask anything Thread

[AndrewS]

I tend to believe the latest rumor that PLAN has ordered 20 more 054Ds. I think PLA foresee a war (Taiwan or SCS) in this decade, so quantity matters.

Well, I would agree the risk of a war is highest in this decade, not that it is inevitable.

China has only just started to pass the US, and has not yet converted its economic heft into military capability

In comparison, the US has accumulated a much larger stockpile of advanced weapons systems over the past 30 years

But that US military advantage rapidly disappears if China has an economy twice the size of the US in 10 years time.

The rumour of 20 Type-052D and 8 Type-055 sounds realistic, given the cold war. It's roughly the same as the previous 5 year plan

 

[blindsight]

Well, I would agree the risk of a war is highest in this decade, not that it is inevitable.

China has only just started to pass the US, and has not yet converted its economic heft into military capability

In comparison, the US has accumulated a much larger stockpile of advanced weapons systems over the past 30 years

But that US military advantage rapidly disappears if China has an economy twice the size of the US in 10 years time.

The rumour of 20 Type-052D and 8 Type-055 sounds realistic, given the cold war. It's roughly the same as the previous 5 year plan

Yes. If you want peace, prepare for war.

 

[Suetham]

It's a general statement on how much money the PLAN will spend on new warship construction.

With a much larger economy in 10 years, you would expect military spending to be a lot higher.

The problem in itself is not for the economy to provide greater spending on military industrial naval construction, but for changing the composition of this production from smaller ships to larger ships, if this really becomes true, the PLAN numbers may stagnate or even decrease , although the firepower will be incomparably higher, as seen today with the US Navy having fewer ships than the PLAN but with a tonnage of 3.5 million displacement, practically 1.5 million tons above the PLAN.

 

[AndrewS]

The problem in itself is not for the economy to provide greater spending on military industrial naval construction, but for changing the composition of this production from smaller ships to larger ships, if this really becomes true, the PLAN numbers may stagnate or even decrease , although the firepower will be incomparably higher, as seen today with the US Navy having fewer ships than the PLAN but with a tonnage of 3.5 million displacement, practically 1.5 million tons above the PLAN.

Given the composition of the fleet today, most of the ships are modern and were recently added within the past 6 years
So most of the new builds will be additions to the fleet, and there won't be many retirements
I therefore expect PLAN numbers to actually increase substantially.

And even if PLAN numbers stagnate or even decrease, would that actually be a problem if the fleet actually had greater combat power?

 

[gelgoog]

The US itself is going to build smaller ships. They are decommissioning the Ticonderoga cruisers and replacing then with later flight Burkes. Then there is the constellation frigate program. Well they call it a frigate but it is about as large as a cruiser like 052D, just with about as many weapons as a frigate.

 

[szbd]

It's possible that the 052 series will be discontinued.

But look at the existing ship procurement costs, which should be representative of the ongoing maintenance

At each level, you see the ship cost, ship tonnage and the number of VLS cells almost double, along with other capability increases

Type-054A 1.8 Billion RMB - 32 VLS - 4000tonnes - Frigate
Type-052D 3.5 Billion RMB - 64 VLS - 7500tonnes - Destroyer
Type-055 6 Billion RMB - 112 VLS - 13000tonnes - Cruiser (Large Destroyer)

Now, we don't know what the future cost will be for an updated Type-054/057 Frigate, but it should be in the same range
So if you dispense with the Type-052, then you're going to have to start using Type-055 cruisers for any mission that a Frigate can't handle
But a Type-055 cruiser is a juicy enough target in itself, that it needs its own screening ships

Also remember that you only need roughly 30 ships to justify an infrastructure for an entirely new hull/propulsion platform.
After the current 2021-2025 construction plan, I reckon the PLAN will be adding a bare minimum of 40 destroyers and 40 frigates in the following 10 years, but these will be a higher-end variety primarily tasked with high-intensity blue-water operations to the 2nd Island Chain

The World Bank has the Chinese economy being about 25% larger than the US in terms of actual output, and the Australian government white papers have this growing to twice the size of the US in about 10 years time. So if anything, China's naval construction is only going to accelerate from today's levels.

So I think we will still see the existing tiers between Frigate, Destroyer and Cruiser in the PLAN.
Of course, that is in addition to the 72 Corvettes which sit a tier below Frigates

China officially anounced 055 is "the fourth generation destroyer". ALso there's obviously large potencial to upgrade this class. Strategically, China must secure the international market and resource. The investment for global navy fleet as the fundamental insurance, is nothing compare to this huge market scale. So I believe PLAN's point is increase the combat ability as fast as possible given all the resource they have. That's why only 055 will be the next mass production destroyer.

As for the frigate, I think they are developing a far sea capable multi mission class for "light missions". And it should be cheaper than 052D, including operation cost, plus looks fancy. That won't be an easy task. Given 054As won't start retire probably until 2040, they can take their time for this.

 

[szbd]

I think Type 052D is still a viable and highly cost effective hull. I doubt it will simply be replaced with the 055.

The time from lay dowm to commission for 052D and 055 are about the same, as well as the infrastructure occupied. The only difference is money. Everybody are under the same boss anyway. So I don't think continue building 052D is a good idea.

 

[szbd]

I've put 50 units in because it's planned so far, and half that number has still been built, so I didn't put more units into service until 2035 and added the extended version of the Type 052D, the Type 052DL or Type 052E if if we were to add numbers, it would be in the extended version, being between 10-25 units until 2035, which would give a maximum count of 75 units only for the PLAN's light destroyer. With the addition of the Type 055 and Type 055B of 31-33 units in total, between cruisers (or heavy destroyer) and light destroyer we would have a total of 93-108 units. These numbers are similar to the US Navy in the Cold War in the 1980s.

From what I understand, the Type 076 does not conduct amphibious operations, it will be used as air support from carriers including amphibians, so I don't see much need for PLAN to operate more Type 076 than Type 075, the number should be equal or half to the Type 076.

The number of SSNs I actually put the numbers in thinking about what the PLAN could have, but the capacity of the shipyards doesn't mean there will be a big increase quickly in units released annually, you may be right about the number of 30 SSNs, but I'm not I see a reason why the PLAN will be operating more than 25 SSNs by 2035, I don't doubt that after the 2035 deadline, halfway through the century, the number of SSN units would skyrocket, but in the 2035 deadline, I honestly don't I foresee the PLAN with 30 SSNs.

Thanks for the deference to the Type 901 number. So, the number should be fixed in 6 units by 2035. And also for the indication of the topic PLAN Orbat, I hadn't researched before. There's a way to move the topic, I predict that this conversation will extend.

From the public official bid requirement for R&D of 076, it has well deck and vehical deck. So it's obviously still an LHD.

 

[blindsight]

China officially anounced 055 is "the fourth generation destroyer". ALso there's obviously large potencial to upgrade this class. Strategically, China must secure the international market and resource. The investment for global navy fleet as the fundamental insurance, is nothing compare to this huge market scale. So I believe PLAN's point is increase the combat ability as fast as possible given all the resource they have. That's why only 055 will be the next mass production destroyer.

As for the frigate, I think they are developing a far sea capable multi mission class for "light missions". And it should be cheaper than 052D, including operation cost, plus looks fancy. That won't be an easy task. Given 054As won't start retire probably until 2040, they can take their time for this.

I think there's some fundamental adjustment in PLAN's near future plan. According to the recent rumors, they have already ordered 20 more 052Ds, besides the 20 more 054As. When you foresee a war in the next couple of years, it makes sense to build mature designs in quantity.

 

[blindsight]

From the public official bid requirement for R&D of 076, it has well deck and vehical deck. So it's obviously still an LHD.

One question about the 076, how fast will it be? If its speed is similar to that of other amphibious ships, then it means PLAN consider it as a new evolution of LHD. If it can keep up CVs and other combatants, then it's a revolution and will play more roles for PLAN.