All is not what it seems within China's High Speed Rail development.

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Thats all fine, but surely it can be a little overdone?

I believe there are more than 10 fully built and uninhabited cities with more coming on stream every year. Unabated rail development could add many more of these ghost cities.

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No far from it. The urbanization rate of China is around 50% compare to 90% in developed countries. In the next decades 300 million surplus labor need to be moved to the cities why because itis more economical. 1 gallon water use for industrial production generate more money than use to grow rice

Beside the CD rate in china is below inflation so if you buy CD or goverment bond you loose money. Since yuan is not convertible there is no avenue to invest overseas. Though they planned to relax forex control.

Stock and other investment is risky. Peculiar Chinese culture penchant for mortar and brick. Go to any Chinese cities likes Hongkong or Singapore buying a house will cost you a fortune unless it is subsidized housing where most of the people in both cities lives.

Last if you want to get marry in China these days you better buy a house No deed No Honey

Those 64 million empty houses is pick out of the blue sky. Even if there is bubble it is not going to be the end of China advance. There is enough momentum to keep it going for couple more decades. it is not like in the west where you can get zero downpayment In china you need 30-40% coupled with high bank reserve ratio requirement up to 20%, there is enogh cushion. Those fear of bubble is way overblown

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Consensus among international media is that China’s economy is heading for an imminent and disastrous crash due to its inflated housing market. While there is absolutely no denying that housing prices in central parts of 1st Tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou are sky-high, this does not signal the end of China’s economic rise. If anything, the high price of housing in these cities affirms China’s rise from poor, cut-off backwater to the world’s second largest economy.

The New York Times weighs in with a Room for Debate feature on ‘China’s Scary Housing Bubble’. The debaters agree for the most part that even if growth slows, the slowdown in residential construction activity will not spell the end of China’s economy. Michael Pettis, professor at Peking University, offers a more likely scenario:

“The real risk for China, it seems to me, is not a property-led financial collapse. What is more likely is that at some point – and probably not this year or next – we begin a long process of adjustment in which economic growth slows dramatically as the economy grinds away at the overbuilding and at excess debt “

For now China is just trying to catch up to developed world standards and keep its economic engine running while the domestic economy evolves into something more service-oriented and consumer based. That will take time, and until then, construction of new buildings and infrastructure will continue
 
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solarz

Brigadier
While I also have trouble with the stated number of unoccupied apartments, the fact is ,evidence clearly points to the existence of ghost cities . The question is why?

Because the developers/investors who own the buildings refuse to sell them at a lower price?

It's interesting that you would ask why. It shows that there is a lack of understanding of how China's development is occurring.

#1: In the West, a single condo development that can't get sold is a disaster for the investors, because those investors took out loans to make their investments. If the buildings don't get sold quickly, they won't be able to afford the interest payments. On the other hand, many Chinese investors do not need to take loans to invest in real-estate. No loans = no urgency to sell.

#2: China's real-estate market growth is phenomenal but not uniform. Some areas grow much faster than others. Real estate prices are also vastly different from one region to another.

Now take an investor who had 1 million yuan in 2005. He invests 700k into an apartment in Shanghai, and 300k in an apartment in Ordos. 6 years later, the Shanghai apartment is now worth 1.5m yuan, while the Ordos apartment has now appreciated at all. Still, even if that investor writes off his Ordos investment completely, he has still made 500k in 6 years, so on the whole, he has still made a very good investment, even though there might be an empty apartment in Ordos.

#3: China's real-estate market experiences spurts of astronomical growth. There might be nobody able to afford a 300k apartment in Ordos today, but in 10 years time, Ordos might experience an economic boom that skyrockets the apartment price. And since the investor didn't take any loans to make his investment, and he's still making good money from real-estate investment in Shanghai, he can afford to leave the apartment empty and wait for that boom.
 

Spartan95

Junior Member
While I also have trouble with the stated number of unoccupied apartments, the fact is ,evidence clearly points to the existence of ghost cities . The question is why?

I have no idea what is the extent of ghost cities and unoccupied apartments in PRC. However, an anecdote I heard is that people are buying apartments in PRC for "investment" purposes and not to stay in. When there is sufficient capital appreciation, they sell the apartment for a profit and repeat the process.

Obviously this only applies to those who can afford to buy multiple apartments. But here's the thing, overseas Chinese can also buy apartments in PRC. I know of Singaporean Chinese who have bought apartments in their ancestral provinces in PRC. But they don't stay in those apartments, and they don't rent out those apartments either. People from Hong Kong probably do the same.
 

Red___Sword

Junior Member
So do we need to change the thread title into something like "China's development conspiracy"?

OR

We can talk about the Hi-speed railway that the world has never seen, again?
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
contrary to the detractor of high speed railway, the new Beijing_Shanghai line prove to be popular with train rider and the city along the line experience building boom . In no time they will recover the expense of building this line. The new line will be inaugurated July the first . Heralding a new era in Chinese economy where slowly the development will shift toward the hinterland

High-Speed Rail Poised to Alter China
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Ryan Pyle for The New York Times
Nearly 200 bullet trains a day are expected to create a business corridor between China's two most dynamic cities, Shanghai, the train station above, and Beijing.

By KEITH BRADSHER
Published: June 22, 2011
CHANGSHA, China — Even as China prepares to open bullet train service from Beijing to Shanghai by July 1, this nation’s steadily expanding high-speed rail network is being pilloried on a scale rare among Chinese citizens and news media.

A high-speed train at a station in Shanghai.
Complaints include the system’s high costs and pricey fares, the quality of construction and the allegation of self-dealing by a rail minister who was fired earlier this year on corruption grounds.

But often overlooked, amid all the controversy, are the very real economic benefits that the world’s most advanced fast rail system is bringing to China — and the competitive challenges it poses for the United States and Europe.

Just as building the interstate highway system a half-century ago made modern, national commerce more feasible in the United States, China’s ambitious rail rollout is helping integrate the economy of this sprawling, populous nation — though on a much faster construction timetable and at significantly higher travel speeds than anything envisioned by the Eisenhower administration.

Work crews of as many as 100,000 people per line have built about half of the 10,000-mile network in just six years, in many cases ahead of schedule — including the Beijing-to-Shanghai line that was not originally expected to open until next year. The entire system is on course to be completed by 2020.


For the United States and Europe, the implications go beyond marveling at the pace of Communist-style civil engineering. China’s manufacturing might and global export machine are likely to grow more powerful as 200-mile-an-hour trains link cities and provinces that were previously as much as 24 hours by road or rail from the entrepreneurial seacoast.

Zhen Qinan, a founder of the stock exchange in coastal Shenzhen and the recently retired chief executive of ZK Energy, a wind turbine producer in Changsha, said that high-speed trains were making it more convenient to base businesses here in Hunan Province. Populous Hunan has long provided labor to the factories of the east, but its mountains have tended to isolate it from the economic mainstream.

Mr. Zhen ticked off Hunan’s attributes: “Land is much cheaper. Electricity is cheaper. Labor is cheaper.”

Around China, real estate prices and investment have surged in the more than 200 inland cities that have already been connected by high-speed rail in the last three years. Businesses are flocking to these cities, now just a few hours by bullet train from China’s busiest and most international metropolises.

Meanwhile, a shift in passenger traffic to the new high-speed rail routes has freed up congested older rail lines for freight. That has allowed coal mines and shippers to switch to cheaper rail transport from costly trucks for heavy cargos.

Because of this shift, plus the construction of additional freight lines, the tonnage hauled by China’s rail system increased in 2010 by an amount equaling the entire freight carried last year by the combined rail systems of Britain, France, Germany and Poland, according to the World Bank.


The bullet train bonanza, and the competitive challenge it poses for the West, is only likely to increase with the opening of the 820-mile Beijing-to-Shanghai line, which will create a business corridor between China’s two most dynamic cities. The railway ministry plans 90 bullet trains a day in each direction.

The trains will barrel along at initial speeds of 190 miles per hour, with plans to accelerate to 220 miles per hour by the summer of 2012, if the first year of operation goes smoothly.

Even at the initial speeds, they will take less than five hours to cover a distance comparable to New York to Atlanta — which requires nearly 18 hours on Amtrak.

China’s huge investment in high-speed rail may be instructive to the United States, whether for proponents of federal rail investments or critics who consider bullet trains a boondoggle.

President Obama, who has proposed spending $53 billion on high-speed rail over the next six years, faced a setback in his budget deal in April with Congressional Republicans, who eliminated money for that plan this year.

Last fall, newly elected Republican governors in Florida, Ohio and Wisconsin turned down federal money their Democratic predecessors had won for new rail routes, worrying that their states could cover most of the costs for trains that would draw few riders.

But then, high-speed rail is not universally acclaimed in China, either. Financial regulators in Beijing have cautioned banks to monitor their rising exposure from hefty loans to the rail ministry. To pay for rapid deployment of the high-speed system, the ministry has borrowed more than $300 billion. It plans to invest an additional $115 billion this year, despite running losses on existing operations that it attributes mainly to rising diesel fuel costs for older lines, as well as rising interest payments.

Among the biggest beneficiaries of the high-speed rail system are firms that contribute nothing to defray its costs. Those would be freight shippers, which now have more exclusive use of the older rail lines, with fewer delays.

Trains will depart from the Shanghai Hongqiao train station for Beijing and barrel along at 190 miles per hour at first.

On the older tracks, the rail ministry has long been able to dictate that freight rates would subsidize passenger trains because the ministry owns those older tracks outright. The new, high-speed lines — passenger trains only — are owned by joint ventures between the rail ministry and provincial governments. That has prevented the ministry from forcing freight shippers to cross-subsidize the new high-speed services. As a result, passengers must pay much higher fares on the new trains than on the older ones.

The lack of freight subsidies is also causing concern in the rail and banking industries that the debt agreements of some joint ventures might need to be revised to extend the repayment of investment costs over more years.

For ordinary citizens, meanwhile, the steep prices for high-speed train tickets have touched China’s raw nerve of rising income inequality.

“The government is just abusing the money of the common people,” said one posting on an Internet discussion forum, defying the network’s censorship.

From Changsha to Guangzhou, the one-way fare in economy class for the two-hour journey, at speeds of up to 210 miles per hour, is 333 renminbi ($51). That is comparable to a deeply discounted airfare, but expensive for a migrant worker from Hunan who might earn only $160 to $400 a month in wages in Guangzhou.

The same trip takes nine hours on an older, diesel train. But it costs only 99 renminbi ($15).

Chinese and foreign engineers have questioned the long-term strength of the concrete used in bridges and viaducts under contracts awarded during the term of the disgraced former rail minister, Liu Zhijun.

The rail ministry’s new leaders, brought in after the corruption investigation, contend that safety concerns are misplaced. But they have responded to public anger over fares by announcing plans to lower the top speed on many routes on July 1 — which will not only address safety questions but will sharply reduce the amount of electricity consumed — and pass on the savings through reduced fares.

When the Beijing-to-Shanghai line opens, it will create a north-to-south artery with links to east-to-west rail lines at two dozen stations along the way.

“It’s the network together that makes it work — knowing you can go from Shijiazhuang to Beijing and then transfer to Tianjin, so the coal guys can go to the port and conduct business with their shippers, for example,” said John Scales, a rail expert in the Beijing office of the World Bank who has advised China.

Already, the longer routes elsewhere appear to draw much heavier ridership. The trains, which typically carry 600 passengers, sometimes sell out despite departures every 10 or 15 minutes, particularly on Fridays but sometimes even at lunchtime in the middle of the week.

Of course, high speed is relative. First, a passenger must actually get a seat.

Zhou Junde, a migrant construction worker with a large red and green tattoo of a hawk on the right side of his neck, stood in line here at the Changsha station on a recent Friday afternoon to buy a high-speed ticket to Guangzhou. But the next high-speed train was sold out, and so was the next one 10 minutes after that. He would have to wait 30 minutes to board a train with a seat.
 
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Spartan95

Junior Member
Not sure if this news was available in PRC, or how credible it is:

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High-speed talk: China exaggerates rail performance, says expert
* Staff Reporter
* 2011-06-22
* 17:59 (GMT+8)

Ambitious to establish itself as the world leader in high-speed rail transportation, China has boasted trains on the Shanghai-Beijing high-speed rail link (also known as the Jinghu HSR) could reach a maximum speed of 380kmh and would maintain a constant speed of 350kmh, but according to a former deputy chief engineer at the railway ministry, this is an exaggeration, Shanghai Daily reports.

Zhou Yimin disclosed in the 21st Century Business Herald that the train could only reach 350kmh for a few minutes at a time. Operating at this speed would go beyond the safety margin, Zhou said.

Liu Zhijun, the former railway minister who stepped down in February under a graft probe, had claimed that trains were capable of reaching 380kmh.

Zhou said the high-speed train was developed by China based on foreign technology. The foreign manufacturers clearly stated in their contract that the maximum operational speed was 300kmh.

If any problem happens while the train is running at such speeds, the consequences would be unimaginable given China's lack of experience in operating high-speed trains, Zhou added.

High-speed trains made by Japan and France have reached speeds of 440kmh and 574kmh in test runs but test runs and daily operation are totally different things, he said. It would be dangerous and a big mistake if China regards the test speed as the daily operation speed.

An official with Siemens AG, which sold components to Chinese train makers, once told him the technology they sold was designed for a top speed of 300kmh. If the trains ran faster than that, they could not be held responsible for any consequences.

Zhou had suggested to the current railway minister Sheng Guangzu in April that the planned speed on the Shanghai-Beijing bullet train be lowered.

Within few days, Sheng announced that the operational speed of all its bullet trains would be lowered from 350kmh to 300kmh following safety concerns.
 

Crux000

Just Hatched
Registered Member
I find this article is a good rebuttal to Zhou Yimin's claims.

There is a revelation that Zhou Yiming has retired in 1998! If that is correct, what Zhou Yiming says is certainly not very credible. Much much water has flowed under the bridge as with regard to China's railway development since then.

High-speed technology eyes US patents

By Xin Dingding (China Daily)

BEIJING - CSR Corporation Limited, one of China's two manufacturers of high-speed trains, is mulling over whether to apply for patents for its CRH380A train in the United States, a senior company technician said.

Ma Yunshuang, deputy general manager and technology director of CSR Qingdao Sifang Co Ltd, which developed the CRH380A train, said that the company has hired US lawyers to assess its intellectual property rights for the train and compare them to existing patents in the US.

"The result of their initial assessment came out good, which means China can apply for patents (for the train) in the US. We are now planning on this," he told China Daily, without giving more details.

However, whether the patents will be granted is not under the company's control, he added.

If China is granted patents for the CRH380A train in the US, it will help CSR take part in US high-speed railway projects, industry insiders have said.

Ma said the train's technologies are rooted in Japanese technologies, but the CRH380A train is no longer the train imported from Japan years ago and is safe to use on the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway, which will soon open.

Previous media reports said Japan's Kawasaki Heavy Industries transferred the technologies of a 200-km/h train to China in 2004. In the same year, China also bought technologies of 200-250 km/h trains from Bombardier and France's Alston.

CSR Qingdao Sifang Co Ltd partnered with Kawasaki Heavy Industries and produced the 200 km/h trains named CRH2 in China.

In the following year, China inked a deal with Siemens from Germany, which agreed to transfer technologies of a 300-km/h train and formed a partnership with Tangshan Railway Vehicle Co Ltd under China CNR Corporation Limited, the other major manufacturer.

There have long been voices, including Zhou Yimin, the railway ministry's former deputy chief engineer and science and technology department director, doubting the reliability of the CRH380A model.

Zhou was quoted by the 21st Century Business Herald as saying on Tuesday that "the foreign companies wrote clearly in the contracts that the top speed for operation should be 300 km/h, not 350 km/h".

He said although the manufacturing capabilities of the rail industry have improved a lot with the introduction of overseas prototypes in recent years, China's research and development remain peripheral.

A railways ministry spokesman dismissed the comments on Wednesday, saying Zhou retired in 1998, too early to know the current situation.

Ma agreed that the trains imported in 2004 are not suitable to run at 350 km/h or 300 km/h.

"But the current trains are not the imported ones," he said.

The CRH380A train, for instance, has made innovations on at least three key parts - bogie, train head and train hull.

A bogie, similar to an automotive chassis, is a key part of high-speed trains. Every bullet train carriage has two bogies at the bottom. Its function is to make a running train reliable and able to carry a certain load with less shaking.

"If you compare a train to a running man, bogies function to make sure the runner doesn't fall, doesn't suffer muscle strains and doesn't feel dizzy," he said.

Changes to the bogie prototype are necessary because China's railways are different from Japan's.

For example, China's trains run on ballastless tracks, but in Japan, trains run on ballast tracks. China's railway tunnels have a cross section of 100 square meters, but in Japan the railway tunnels have a cross section of 64 square meters.

These differences have an impact on train operations, and China could not just use the imported train as it was, he said.

In addition, CSR later started to develop 300 km/h trains and 380 km/h trains, but the bogie technology Japan transferred to China is for 200-250 km/h trains and cannot sustain the higher speed.

Ma's team made adjustments to the bogie prototype to make trains able to run smoothly at 380 km/h, based on data gained from months of experiments on the high-speed railways.

"If you compare the bogie prototype imported from Japan with the current bogie used on the CRH380A, you will find they are different," he said.

"Our technologies may originate from foreign countries, but it doesn't mean that what we have now all belongs to them. We have added our knowledge gained from experiments to the train and made designs to satisfy our needs, so the new train is not theirs anymore."

In addition to bogies, the company also redesigned the train head so that air resistance of a CRH380A train is 5 percent less than for a CRH2.

Meanwhile, after more than one year of work accompanied by failures, China mastered the technology of manufacturing large-section materials for building a light but sturdy train hull, which Japan refused to transfer but wanted to supply for bigger profits.

Ma said these efforts embody the strategy of initial assimilation followed by innovation.

"A simple technology import is using the technology as it is, but we did much more than that," he said.

"After the technology transfer was made, we did analysis and experiments on every part, trying to understand its design concept and the form of the technology used and figure out what we should do to make it work as we want."

According to Ma's estimation, more than 100 million yuan ($15 million) has been poured into experiments and innovations of new high-speed train models, an amount 10 times what the company spent on the development of a train model in the past.

He Huawu, chief engineer with the Ministry of Railways, told China Daily that China's high-speed rail has acquired nearly 2,000 patents at home.

Ma admitted that some parts of the new train, such as bearings, are made by Japan because of the country's limited industrial capability.

But all the parts bought from foreign countries are tailor-made according to CSR's technical requirements, which makes a difference, he said.

In CSR's development of 300-350 km/h trains and later 380 km/h trains, the Japanese side cooperated with CSR as a supplier, he said.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
I find this article is a good rebuttal to Zhou Yimin's claims.

There is a revelation that Zhou Yiming has retired in 1998! If that is correct, what Zhou Yiming says is certainly not very credible. Much much water has flowed under the bridge as with regard to China's railway development since then.

Excellent rebuttal. Not only bogie but control signal. braking has to be modified to allow for speedier train .

Those has been just there to create publicity for themselves 10 years is a long time in technology advances.

China did it right just build it they wll come . During 90 when china start building highway system, the westen critic derisivelly call highway to nowhere because it is empty . Now who has the last laugh China manufacturer 10 million car per year and keep growing at the rate of 10% / years
 

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Excellent rebuttal. Not only bogie but control signal. braking has to be modified to allow for speedier train .

Those has been just there to create publicity for themselves 10 years is a long time in technology advances.

China did it right just build it they wll come . During 90 when china start building highway system, the westen critic derisivelly call highway to nowhere because it is empty . Now who has the last laugh China manufacturer 10 million car per year and keep growing at the rate of 10% / years

I think now the problem is too many cars. Of course critics are simply swapping arguments.
 

Schumacher

Senior Member
Not sure if this news was available in PRC, or how credible it is:
.................

Hmm ... not sure if it's available in PRC ? Trying to suggest China somehow doesn't allow negative news ?
The link you posted cited Shanghai Daily & 21st Century Business Herald as sources. You do know both of these are PRC news outlets, don't you ?
 
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