2025 Israel - Iranian conflict

another505 said:

Iran is a more pariah state than NK. At least NK gets PRC and Russia(whatever they can muster left) backing. Iran is surrounded by enemies and unable to make friends besides the even weaker Iraq.

If Iran leadership survives this, they need to reform and actually make some solid friends near its border even at the cost of discarding some of their major principles. Make economic reforms, improve their people's life that they are willing to support the government, not fearful of the government.

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The thing is they had years to figure it out. These issues we are seeing are not new. They are merely repeats of existing observed issues.

I do hope Iran gets it act together. But we might be approaching a full hot war globally quite soon. The window to do so is very small compared to the reforms needed.

Randomuser said:

The thing is they had years to figure it out. These issues we are seeing are not new. They are merely repeats of existing observed issues.

I do hope Iran gets it act together. But we might be approaching a full hot war quite soon. The window to do so is very small compared to the reforms needed.

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I’m not too sure what a “hot war” would look like in this case. Israel cant invade Iran through the ground.

Radiation leak detected inside Natanz nuke site, acc. to Atomic Energy Org. of Iran. They also claim none has leaked outside but who knows.



Also quite boring that people are filling pages up discussing ME politics and religion and a lot of nonsense instead of posting updates!

tamsen_ikard said:

Not true. Iran has Russian aligned former Soviet states in the north like Turkmenistan. Afghanistan and Pakistan are also not enemies. Yes, there is no strong friendship but no enmity either.

Turkey is also not an enemy of Iran these days under erdogan. Iraq is pretty much a satellite.

Iran has very good neighborhood now compared to the past actually.

The main enemies are the gulf Arabs and Israel which are all US vassals.

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Except those friendlier nations arent going to help much in a hot war or much in peace time.

another505 said:

Except those friendlier nations arent going to help much in a hot war or much in peace time.

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Iran has more than enough strategic depth to fight Israel without help from its neighbour's. Yes, Iran lacks good air defense and air force and should have bought from China and Russia, but Iran actually has the engineering depth to actually produce planes and AD, unlike any of the countries in the middle east.

Iran has the capacity to fight Israel and win if they can keep their morale and cohesion intact.

Jaroslav said:

Is this real or this is propaganda? Where did UAE intercepted Iranian drones? And what missiles?

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CrazyHorse said:

I don’t remember any confirmed reports of launches, so likely fake news.

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Some of the USAF assets employed to intercept Iranian missiles targeting Israel last year took off from Al Dhafra Air Base in the UAE.

CrazyHorse said:

I’m not too sure what a “hot war” would look like in this case. Israel cant invade Iran through the ground.

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The most likely scenario — assuming the Israelis are able to secure American buy-in — would be something akin to NATO's 1999 air campaign against Serbia, though possibly augmented by SOF raids against certain Iranian facilities of strategic importance.

tamsen_ikard said:

Iran has more than enough strategic depth to fight Israel without help from its neighbour's. Yes, Iran lacks good air defense and air force and should have bought from China and Russia, but Iran actually has the engineering depth to actually produce planes and AD, unlike any of the countries in the middle east.

Iran has the capacity to fight Israel and win if they can keep their morale and cohesion intact.

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I don't think it's about morale or cohesion. I think it's about being smart and making effective decisions especially when the pressure is high.

Willpower can only get you so far. Times have changed.

Observer1 said:

The theological differences here are overstated. Sunnis and Shias indeed have bad blood, but their hate for Israel should theoretically still be a strong cause for unity, afterall Hamas & Palestine are Sunnis.

The reason why you see these states actively engaged in interceptions of Iranian munition is because of their own politics and alliances with the US, and individual geopolitical obstacles against Iran. It's a lot more than simply one is Shia and other is Sunni.

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Only on paper and in the airwaves where we see the Sunni and Shia united in their outrage against Israeli genocide of Palestinians.

On the ground, and in action though its a whole different story. We saw Sunnis in Syria fighting Bashar al-Assad, the Alawites, and Hezbollah with so much ferocity, while they stayed quiet when the IDF invaded Southern Syria. Palestinians and Hamas cheered for the rise of Al-Julani. The same Al-Julani who handed the Golan Heights and parts of Southern Syria to Netanyahu while he was busy butchering Alawites. Yeah, you can't make this up.

George Galloway himself had given up on the Middle East since the fall of Assad. So this sums up what we need to know about the Middle East and their sectarian problems. They just cannot be helped.

bebops said:

I can see Iran opened themselves up like the Saudi. Most of top figures in their command structure is gone.. It is almost to the point of regime change.

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those are key military stuff, but none of them are terribly important for an actual power vertical.

tamsen_ikard said:

Yes, Iran lacks good air defense and air force and should have bought from China and Russia,

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Their new gen ADs were supposed to be quite alright.
I frankly wonder what happened, and how much sheer surprise factor worked. All 3 AD systems we saw engaged by ATGMs/drones weren't even deployed.

New waves of strikes being reported in Qom, Iran