Based on my observation of the Israel-Iran war up to the ceasefire, I can say that Israel had exposed Iran's poor counter intelligence and air defence capability. They have also managed to suppress Iran's much touted ballistic missile arsenal. Reducing them to low double digit launches per day on good days. Many analysts had speculated since Operation True Promise 1 & 2 that Iran had the capability to defend itself from Israel and even destroy it with it's vast BM arsenal. Well, Israel had found solutions to that. They had delivered devastating blows to the Iranian air defence and gained air superiority over vast swathes of Iranian airspace. With that air superiority, they could bomb targets in Iran with impunity. Iran couldn't bring it's vast BM arsenal to bear because of this. For sure there is an argument that Israel cannot sustain this indefinitely. I'm not arguing against that. However, Israel had demonstrated that it can decisively overcome Iran's defences. Let's no sugarcoat this fact.
Israel had also been exposed in this war for being softer than they are acting out to be. Despite having formidable Anti-air and ABM defenses. Despite NATO and Gulf Arab assistance. A good number of Iranian BMs did managed to get through and caused serious damage. The Israeli heartlands have never been this badly hit by an outside enemy attack in living memory. Israel had also been exposed as terribly dependent on the US for ammunition supplies. Without the American MIC and protection, Israel can never sustain a war with Iran. It wholly lacks the stamina for a proper long war with Iran.
Nevertheless, when looking at the bigger picture since Oct 7th 2023. Cost argument aside, Israel have achieve many notable objectives. Hamas has been battered into a sporadic insurgent group. Ismail Haniyeh is dead. Hezbollah has been shattered and starved. Hassan Nasrallah is dead. Syria had fallen to an Al-Qaeda proxy, its borders and airspace are fully opened for access to the Israeli military. Israel had battered the Iranian air defence, killed scores of Iranian military leaders, killed many nuclear scientists, and successfully suppressed the Iranian BM force. The so-called Axis of Resistance, led by Iran? It is effectively over in my opinion. The damage that Iran inflicted in return to Israel is still not comparable in value. Israel can walk away from this war, feeling much better than Iran can. Israel had been bloodied, but Iran have suffered extensive injuries.
Iran, with its Shia Crescent project now dismantled should take the time to reflect on itself. All those decades of spending blood and treasure to prop up these proxies against Israel have ended up with this. Iran stood its ground when war came to them. But now, this is the opportunity for Iran to change directions. Now should be the time for Iran to concentrate on building itself up and stop pretending like it is a hegemonic powerhouse in the Middle East. They need to fully align with the big East Asian powerhouse and the big Eurasian power. Start opening up for serious trade with the East Asian giant, and collaborate more with them on defence. Build a stronger economy, and modernize the military. And for goodness sake, clean up that Iranian intelligence apparatus. It has been a total embarrassment during the war.
I don't know if this reformist Iranian president, his foreign minister, and the Ayatollah have learned their lessons. If they continue with business as usual, then this Israel-Iran war stalemate could become a long term strategic defeat for Iran.
