2025 Israel - Iranian conflict

lube said:

Iran definitely needed to drag this on for a month or two.

Doesn't matter if they launch one or two missile a day and only 1 in 10 hit something, but the amount of attritional economic and political damage would be hard to undo, since Israel is a hi-tech, wealthy, knowledge economy.

But they chose ceasefire after 12 days.

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I think Iran kinda made a wise choice in the sense that the more time goes on, the more advanced Iran gets in technology, in GDP, in industrial production. They have the population and the resources. Israel is done, its the most powerful it will ever be. This is their swan song.

The world is moving towards convergance between the west and the east. Countries like Iran and Turkey are getting stronger and stronger. While the gap between them and Israel gets reduced. If the war happened 10 years ago, Iran will have even worse technology and missile arsenal than they do now.

If Iran can get another decade of development they will be much more stronger. While Israel is stagnant. US and the west is stagnant.

For Iran, more strategic patience is a good choice.

tamsen_ikard said:

I think Iran kinda made a wise choice in the sense that the more time goes on, the more advanced Iran gets in technology, in GDP, in industrial production. They have the population and the resources. Israel is done, its the most powerful it will ever be. This is their swan song.

The world is moving towards convergance between the west and the east. Countries like Iran and Turkey are getting stronger and stronger. While the gap between them and Israel gets reduced. If the war happened 10 years ago, Iran will have even worse technology and missile arsenal than they do now.

If Iran can get another decade of development they will be much more stronger. While Israel is stagnant. US and the west is stagnant.

For Iran, more strategic patience is a good choice.

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Yeah it's strategically wise for Iran to drag itself outside of this before too long. Being wise in the smaller picture does not always mean being not wise in the larger picture though. Several more weeks is nothing under the strategic scale but can do much much more damage to Israel. I guess Iran just really doesn't like the uncertainty of it and just ignores or oversees (won't be surprised) that Israel is the side that wants an early ending more.

vidpicurl said:

Yeah it's strategically wise for Iran to drag itself outside of this before too long. Being wise in the smaller picture does not always mean being not wise in the larger picture though. Several more weeks is nothing under the strategic scale but can do much much more damage to Israel. I guess Iran just really doesn't like the uncertainty of it and just ignores or oversees (won't be surprised) that Israel is the side that wants an early ending more.

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Being able to resist is a victory in itself, just look at Yemen. For me a strategic shift is happening, a middle eastern nation able to withstand and fight back NOT OF iSRAEL but the combine west.

Now we can say that the Global South had a third true leader aside from China and Russia to lean on. A Pillar of foundation that can really challenge the combine forces of Western hegemony. The only missing link is in Africa and South America, hopefully we might see one in the near future.

From this conflict, I can see the liability of having a vassal system, An Albatross in your neck if you ask me, its not in your best interest to have one cause it always drag you down and you can't control them it control you.

Weaasel said:

Of course yes. Even just by themselves and they will get further support from Russia and China, Russia because of strategic considerations is highly incentivized to assist them. China will benefit commercially, but also strategically too.

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For Israel what come first Military restocking or reconstruction. The Iranian destruction cost in the hundred of Billions or even a Trillion. Who will finance it? the Arabs? Definitely not the US and EU cause both are broke.

This war gave Iran precious Time to survive and re armed, from my estimation about 5 years before another Israel misadventures. And this time she will have friends to help and Israel may not exist as a viable country.

Trump

"Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran "

Also Trump

"Unconditional Surrender "

TACO mode activated after realizing shit could go down very fast

"Congratulations to everyone ...there wil be a complete and total ceasefire "

Frankly if there's a ceasefire, it's to Iran's advantage and probably more important for Iran to rebuild its missile force and learning from their experience than to build a nuke. The US's use of MOABs is just more hype than reality. Like the US and Israel think they can tell Iran not to make anymore missiles? If Iran could continue to send relentless waves of missiles pounding Israeli cities, that would've paid off in a way of its own. Israeli didn't stop Iran's ability to use missiles. Israel agreeing to a ceasefire says how much the missiles were hurting them. They wanted to send forces into Iran to make sure those nuclear facilities were out of commission. Now they can't do that. It tells you those missiles did more damage than just physical to Israel and it was important for that to stop.

Trump : It was part of the plan. I did that to get Bibi out of the quagmire and I told the Iranians, look guys, I just have to do this, you guys are gonna take a bit of a hit, but you are hurting just as he is hurting. Just allow him to save some face, aight?

Ceasefire broken. Iran just launched another missile smh.

Literally just 1 missile this time.

talonn said:

Ceasefire broken. Iran just launched another missile smh.

Literally just 1 missile this time.

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Detection error, or false info? Delayed communication of orders in Iran's military, perhaps? Another country or one of Iran's proxies? Maybe even Israeli false-flag attempt to restart the war? I wouldn't put it past Israel, they seem to really want to drag the US into their mess. I'm guessing the clean little altercation between the US and Iran wasn't enough for Netanyahu.

Iran announced from day one that they would cease their strikes if the Israelis stopped theirs.

Iran was always limited in the amount of damage it could do to Israel. If they did too much damage they could get themselves nuked. It is not that they couldn't do more damage, the problem would be the retaliation they would get.

The only way to solve that problem is for Iran to get nukes themselves.