2025 Israel - Iranian conflict

FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Kich said:
US/Israel will give Iran an ultimatum. To give up it's nuclear program or face destruction.

If Iran refuses, then I very much see the possibility of US joining this war. Israel has degraded Iran enough that it should be easy.

Iran has no Air Force. Their AD are being picked apart from both within by infiltrated forces and by SEAD/DEAD ops. It's only a matter of time before IAF achieve Air Supremacy over Iran. Right now they have Air Superiority on the western and some central parts of Iran.

Iran can't win this war because they never focused on improving the most important thing that matters in modern military, their Air Force. All they cared about were ballistic missiles. They also viewed their AD as more important than their Air Force.

I'll give Pakistan credit for not falling into this same mistake and constantly working to improve their Air Power.

Iran is rightfully paying the price for their negligent military moves. They can inflict damage to Israel but will still lose.
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I understand the Iranian decision though. Iran dealt with severe sanctions. Iranian Migs and Sukhois were not bought by Iran, they were confiscated by Iran when Iraqi pilots fled to Iran during Desert Storm. Russia was still scared of sanctions back then. Iran has no supplier of aircraft except itself, and its maximum effort could only make F-5 style planes and keep F-14s flying. It can't compete with heavy 4.5 gens and 5th gens.

There is no way they could've competed against 100+ F-15s and F-35s. If Israel was only using F-16s it would be a different story but F-15s and F-35s are too much. If it did not invest in missiles but instead, say, invested that money into buying 36 Su-30s off the black market, it would just be doing 0 damage and getting most of its air force shot down, like what happened to Saddam.

Ukraine and North Korea got away with a poor air force because they neighbor their opponents. Iran doesn't anymore, so they can't hit back with ground forces under cover. They were screwed when they gave up their proxies. If Iran still had Hezbollah, they could launch ATGM, FPV and mortar attacks into northern Israel but since Iran abandoned them, Hezbollah is sitting it out.
 
T

TPenglake

Junior Member
Registered Member
tamsen_ikard said:
Its funny to see people here oscillate between depression during daytime, when Israel attacks vs joy at night time when Iran attacks.

We have seen massive amount of Iranian missiles getting through in Israel. So, it's pretty obvious they have hit significant targets inside Israel too.

So I don't understand the complaint really. What is that you guys want. Yes, Iran had intelligence failures which has cost them a lot. But they also have huge strategic depth and hit they can swallow.

Soviet Union also blunder in the beginning of ww2 and they lost millions of people and infrastructure and everything. But they still won in the end due to their bigger population, bigger strategic depth.

What is the goal here for Iran? Its to survive Israel onslaught and cause enough damage to have peace. That's it.

Their nuclear plants are still intact which was the primary goal of Israel. So every thing else Israel is hitting is completely pointless.

What is Israel losing is a functioning economy. They are also losing their factories, their ports, their universities.

Ultimately Iran can take 10 times more blows than what Israel can take.

The moment Iranian population galvanized behind the government, this war was won by Iran. Nothing else matters now. I don't know how you guys expect so called regime change to happen in Iran because it ain't happening via any kind of uprising or coup. So, unless US and Israel invades Iran, which they can't, they can't do regime change.
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The fact of the matter is the game is pretty much set. Israel has total control over Iranian airspace and vast intelligence of all its military assets, its basically playing battleship while peaking over the side at your opponent's ships before you strike. Videos of Iranian missiles making it through provide the visual flair needed to give people their endorphin rushes, but the reality is Iranian missiles lack any of the precise targeting of Israeli strikes and the only capability Iran has for now and likely the rest of the war are blanket bombings of population centers.

So nevermind that from London in WW2, to most recent examples in Ukraine, bombing population centers only ever achieves the result of hardening the other side's resolve to fight, Israel's military assets remain unharmed and their will to use them grows day by day with each Iranian strike, while Iran's keeps getting blown up with every Israeli strike. If a ceasefire were to be negotiated now, with how lopsided the losses have been, the ceasefire would amount to an Iranian surrender and a humiliation of the IRI. I mean at this point, the IRI's options are either humiliation or extinction, with the Catch 22 being that humiliation could lead to loss of legitimacy and thus extinction.
 
K

Kich

Junior Member
Registered Member
FairAndUnbiased said:
I understand the Iranian decision though. Iran dealt with severe sanctions. Iranian Migs and Sukhois were not bought by Iran, they were confiscated by Iran when Iraqi pilots fled to Iran during Desert Storm. Russia was still scared of sanctions back then. Iran has no supplier of aircraft except itself, and its maximum effort could only make F-5 style planes and keep F-14s flying. It can't compete with heavy 4.5 gens and 5th gens.

There is no way they could've competed against 100+ F-15s and F-35s. If Israel was only using F-16s it would be a different story but F-15s and F-35s are too much. If it did not invest in missiles but instead, say, invested that money into buying 36 Su-30s off the black market, it would just be doing 0 damage and getting most of its air force shot down, like what happened to Saddam.

Ukraine and North Korea got away with a poor air force because they neighbor their opponents. Iran doesn't anymore, so they can't hit back with ground forces under cover. They were screwed when they gave up their proxies. If Iran still had Hezbollah, they could launch ATGM, FPV and mortar attacks into northern Israel but since Iran abandoned them, Hezbollah is sitting it out.
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I agree with your response and that sanctions dealt them with a bad hand.

But I still feel they didn't rush enough to modernize their air force especially after helping Russia with Ukraine. They should have fast tracked the deliveries of Sukhois. It was possibly. I mean look to Ukraine for example on how quickly their F-16s got into their service.
Sure Russia needed those jets but Iran could have stipulated their exchange for Shahed drones and missiles. I mean Russia had a large number of Egyptian Su-35s sitting there that Egypt never took delivery off.

Right now, they need to realize that they can't win this. They should try to preserve the kingdom and keep what they have. Give up the nukes and live to fight another day. Hopefully modernize by then and be prepare for Round 2.

They can't win Round 1.
 
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F

Fatty

Junior Member
Registered Member
sequ said:
They only have "Muh Hormuz" left. They have already alluded to blocking it. It will end any goodwill left in the world for Iran. It'll alienate them even more.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1934332095343505513
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Hormuz is a good card for them to play I think.

1. Everyone can see Israel started this conflict. I mean Israel themselves calls it a preemptive strike. Blaming Iran for playing this card would seem hypocritical
2. No one is directly helping Iran in the first place. They’re under heavy sanctions. What does goodwill get it? Sides have already been taken as well. Countries either like Israel or they don’t
3. This may get US involved which may buy Iran more direct support from other countries or make the US force Israel to back down. I doubt Trump would want an oil price crisis

In the current status quo Iran is bleeding out. IMO they either need to escalate or deescalate
 
I

iewgnem

Senior Member
Registered Member
TPenglake said:
The fact of the matter is the game is pretty much set. Israel has total control over Iranian airspace and vast intelligence of all its military assets, its basically playing battleship while peaking over the side at your opponent's ships before you strike. Videos of Iranian missiles making it through provide the visual flair needed to give people their endorphin rushes, but the reality is Iranian missiles lack any of the precise targeting of Israeli strikes and the only capability Iran has for now and likely the rest of the war are blanket bombings of population centers.

So nevermind that from London in WW2, to most recent examples in Ukraine, bombing population centers only ever achieves the result of hardening the other side's resolve to fight, Israel's military assets remain unharmed and their will to use them grows day by day with each Iranian strike, while Iran's keeps getting blown up with every Israeli strike. If a ceasefire were to be negotiated now, with how lopsided the losses have been, the ceasefire would amount to an Iranian surrender and a humiliation of the IRI. I mean at this point, the IRI's options are either humiliation or extinction, with the Catch 22 being that humiliation could lead to loss of legitimacy and thus extinction.
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Iran's airspace is 3x the size of Ukraine and Israel need foreign tankers just to reach the western part, people really struggle with the concept of scale.

Also videos of Iranian missiles homing in on AD launch sites says anything but lack targeting, nevermind the actual hits on IDF buildings.

Israel censors information for the exact reason of creating the narrative that Iranian missiles are inaccurate and doesn't hit any military targets, but its not hard to put two and two together when sustained smoke come out of a place where AD missiles just launched.
 
R

RobertC

Junior Member
Registered Member
John Helmer provides his perspective on the Russian perspective at
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An assessment by Boris Rozhin, a leading military blogger, is brutal.
Representing military views in Moscow, Rozhin
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the risk to Russia of “Iran’s defeat…Of particular importance is the fact that Russia and Iran are neighbours in the Caspian Sea. The loss of this ally means: Violation of the strategic balance in the Caspian region; strengthening Western influence in a critical area for Russia; threat to Russian interests in the energy sector…Iran’s defeat will lead to the collapse of the system of the regional allies of Russia; complete domination of the West in the region; isolation of Russia from key partners.” – June 14, 21:19.
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