2025 Israel - Iranian conflict

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Moonscape

Junior Member
Registered Member
Good analysis from another forum

tbh i dont think there's really any accounting for what trump does by looking at objectives or factions. instead, look at whether there's an easy win for trump personally or not. on paper it's very hard for iran to win a limited (e.g., not setting the entire region on fire and attacking gulf states) war of attrition against israel because israel will be endlessly resupplied from US stockpiles. but in reality, the level of support is now contingent on whether trump thinks he's going to get an easy dunk. so the longer and messier the war is for israel, the less appealing it is for trump personally to commit more US assets and the more likely it is that he will perceive israel's campaign as a loser he can distance himself from (which has already started happening.)

meanwhile, iran staying in a limited fight makes it more likely that they get increasing levels of tacit material support from russia, china, etc. because a) israel is demonstrating how unhinged and destabilizing for the region they are while, b) iran keeps demonstrating that their command and control and political apparatus is going to survive this and they're not increasing regional instability by drawing in more countries. they have a rock solid casus belli for what they're currently doing and racking up tangible victories on those terms will keep their own population aligned behind the regime, allowing them to further focus on the external enemy rather than on suppressing domestic unrest.

in conclusion iran is going to suffer terribly but probably come out ahead if they just keep doing what they're doing.
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Bellum_Romanum

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
AndrewJ said:
Iran has no Air Defense. IDF planes shit at everywhere of Iran at ease. :rolleyes:

No idea why Iran has no Air Force & no Air Defense simultaneously.

Iran invested every penny on offensive missiles, but did nothing on AF & AD. Which leads to little counteroffensive capacity after IDF air strikes. Most TEL vehicles & missile bases were hit within Day One.

Iranian leadership is not only totally infiltrated, but also extremely dumb. o_O
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texx1 said:
Iran might be attempting to negotiate under the table with Israel. Iran has asked Cyprus to pass along some messages to Israel.

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And some folks here are "complaining" that we're too hard on Iran? Here's your clue if there weren't there already.
 
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PLAwatcher12

Junior Member
Registered Member
Mmmeeeto said:
According to a few telegram groups:
⚡️- Israeli media claims only 28 missiles were launched.

Two odd things

How come the missile barrage was this small, usually they go for 50 atleast?

How come Israeli defences couldn't intercept them all, that's a very small amount of missiles
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Ether it’s degraded or faster missiles and possibly Iran is saving the missiles for later what is common in war.
 
vincent

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
gelgoog said:
IMHO Israel is playing with fire here. Iran has the Khorramshahr IRBM. It is a clone of the North Korean Hwasong-10. Why do these people assume Iran can't get the nukes and RVs from North Korea as well if they want to? Stupid.
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With the level of infiltration at the highest level by Israeli intelligence, the West will know the moment North Korea begins to ship the nuke.
 
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texx1

Junior Member
More reports of behind the scene negotiation efforts from Iran, Iran is signaling its willingness to negotiate a ceasefire via Oman and Qatar.

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Tehran has reached out to Qatar and Oman through diplomatic channels, asking for regional mediators to intervene in relaunching negotiations, multiple Israeli media outlets reported on Sunday, citing Israeli government sources.

According to the same Israeli sources, Iran is asking Qatar and Oman to act as intermediaries to inform the US of its willingness to negotiate a ceasefire or for Washington to urge Israel to stop its offensive, while Saudi Arabia may also be pursuing discreet diplomatic efforts to enable a de-escalation of the hostilities between Iran and Israel.

These diplomatic manoeuvres were echoed by Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi on Sunday when he said that Iran remains open to negotiating a nuclear deal, as a possible response to Trump’s calls for Iran to return to the negotiating table and make a deal on its nuclear activities.

However, the Iranian foreign minister still chose to add a defiant tone to his statement by saying that Iran would not accept any deal that “deprives Iran of its nuclear rights” and that continuing talks with the US in the current circumstances would be “unjustifiable”.
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sequ

sequ

Major
Registered Member
PLAwatcher12 said:
I think it’s more likely Iran knows they’re in for the long haul so it’s better to save missiles. I would be incredibly stupid to launch hundreds of missiles everyday, and Iran also has alot less missiles than Russia or China so they have to save more of them
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That's a huge gamble. The IRGC has lost their most influential positions to the Artesh (they're now in control) and Khamenei is isolated and on the run. Very difficult to take back control from this.

And Artesh has little clue about the IRGC(-ASF) systems, doctrine and their capabilities because they are more geared to conventional warfare.
 
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Mmmeeeto

Junior Member
Registered Member
Bellum_Romanum said:
And some folks here are "complaining" that we're too hard on Iran? Here's your clue if there weren't there already.
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No idea why Iran has no Air Force & no Air Defense simultaneously.

Iran invested every penny on offensive missiles, but did nothing on AF & AD. Which leads to little counteroffensive capacity after IDF air strikes. Most TEL vehicles & missile bases were hit within Day One.
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Yes building an airforce and airdefences must've slipped their mind right?

Is this a serious analysis
 
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