The War in the Ukraine

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Orlan 10 guided shells towards an ammo depot. This seems to be the newer version of Orlan 10 with the infrared vision and laser targeting.


Ukrainian observation post taken out by Kornet ATGM. Versatile weapon, it's the new RPG-7.

 

Sinnavuuty

Senior Member
Registered Member
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The withdrawal of weapons from the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant, which Ukraine demands, will be part of the agreement between Kiev and Moscow and the IAEA, the agency's director, Rafael Grossi, has said in an interview with La Repubblica. Earlier, Rosatom said that no heavy equipment would be located on the territory of the Zaporizhzhya NPP and that only light weapons would be placed there for the plant's protection. The main question is whether Ukraine will withdraw its artillery from Nikopol, from where the Ukrainian Armed Forces are shelling the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant. The experience of the Minsk agreements has shown that it is unlikely...
Ukrainians are smart. They attack NPP Zaporizhzhya to keep the plant out of operation and also to force a disarmament agreement in the area.
 

phrozenflame

Junior Member
Registered Member
They predicted it allright. The Russians planned for this war since 2014. It happened a bit sooner than they wanted to but they just ploughed in regardless. If you look at the Russian buildup of armored battalions over past 8 years it is kind of obvious.
That doesn't seem to be the case at all. It appears a lot of the plan revolved around lots of wishful thinking like the Ukrainian collapse, the split in NATO/EU, and their own operational capabilities. Comes down to corruption and incompetence again tbh.
 
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Abominable

Major
Registered Member
It is not Ukrana vs Russia, but USA vs. Russia.

C'mon , Russia figth with units using USA made weapons, trained by the USA in occupied western european countries, and commanded by USA officers.

Only a small step further to say hire 100 000 military age man from Bangladesh, give them Ukrainan citizenship, train them in Germany by USA miltiary inscructors, give them freshly made jawelin, stinger and m-16, and send them to the meat grinder.

Who cares about the area around the roads as they transport the fresh Ukrainan citizens born in Niger/Bangladesh or whatever on the way to Donbas to protect they new home country?

There could be millions of them, even if Russia manage to loose one of they soldiers as they kill ten Niger born Ukrainan citizen they still loose the fight.

So, there is no time, Russia has to start the action NOW before the USA develop a syrian style nazi jihadish militants manufacturing line.
There's no reason to use Nigerians or Bengalis when they have Poles, Georgians and other eastern Euros. They all will work for the same price. In fact it'll probably be cheaper as Nigeria and Bangladesh will have better economies than eastern Europe once the EU implodes.

I don't know why you're talking about it as a hypothetical, it's what they are doing right now. The production line has existed in Ukraine since 2014, and now has opened up to citizens of other countries.
 
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Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
That doesn't seem to be the case at all. It appears a lot of the plan revolved around lots of wishful thinking like the Ukrainian collapse, the split in NATO/EU, and their own operational capabilities. Comes down to corruption and incompetence again tbh.
Russia got overconfident after Crimean annexation in 2014. Ukraine gave up Crimea without firing a single bullet, and G7 offered only symbolic sanctions after Crimean annexation referendums. It was too easy!! so for DPR/LNR annexations, they didn't even plan for mobilization because the SMO should be over before 6 months contracts expired. They went in thinking Ukraine would sue for peace sooner or later...still hoping for a negotiated settlement.
 

gelgoog

Brigadier
Registered Member
Bollocks. Russia created the Mir debit and credit card to replace Visa and Mastercard. They developed SPFS for money transfers between banks to replace SWIFT. Russia put counter sanctions against the EU so they would stop importing food from the EU. Russia used to be a net food importer who imported from the EU chicken, pork, milk, butter, cheese, fruit, vegetables, sugar, etc. Afterwards the Russian government spent huge amounts of government funds providing financial aid to replace all those imports. These included huge facilities to raise livestock, planting sugarbeet, grain elevators, etc. Russia also made funds available for all Russian companies to perform import substitution. Russia built the Power of Siberia gas pipeline to diversify gas sales to China. Russia massively increased their capacity for refining and processing oil into things like plastics. Russia funded the development of the Russified Superjet and MC-21, gas turbine engines for helicopters, trainer aircraft, ships, cruise missiles, etc.

Russia put into production their own replacements the VK-2500, Al-222, M90FR for turbine engines they used to buy from Ukraine. Yak-130 started deliveries again this year after a long dry spell of many years where no deliveries were made. The Admiral Golovko frigate started trials just like last week using Russian turbines. And all those cruise missiles could not have been produced if they were still putting Ukrainian turbine engines into them. They also replaced the Catherine Thermal Night sights they used to buy from France with their own Irbis-K. They made their own space grade electronics to replace Western imports and are now launching satellites again in large numbers.

And in tanks and armored vehicles you can see a huge difference. They built hundreds of BMD-4M IFVs at a rate of over a hundred a year. Hundreds of BMP-3 IFVs again over a hundred a year. They upgraded hundreds of T-72B tanks to B3 and B3M status. They upgraded like a thousand BTR-80s to BTR-82A standard. They replaced the Tochka with Iskander. They also produced enough Ratnik kit to equip all their standing army.
 
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baykalov

Senior Member
Registered Member
Financial Times:

Military briefing: Ukraine war exposes ‘hard reality’ of west’s weapons capacity


Nearly 10 months into Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the allies that have backed Kyiv’s war effort are increasingly concerned by the struggle to increase ammunition production as the conflict chews through their stockpiles.

At stake is not only the west’s ability to continue supplying Ukraine with the weapons it needs but also allies’ capacity to show adversaries such as China that they have an industrial base that can produce sufficient weaponry to mount a credible defence against possible attack.

After sending more than $40bn of military support to Ukraine, mostly from existing stocks, Nato members’ defence ministries are discovering that dormant weapons production lines cannot be switched on overnight. Increasing capacity requires investment which, in turn, depends on securing long-term production contracts.

There are two main reasons western nations are struggling to source fresh military supplies, said defence officials and corporate executives.

The first is structural. Since the end of the cold war, these countries have reaped a peace dividend by slashing military spending, downsizing defence industries and moving to lean, “just-in-time” production and low inventories of equipment such as munitions. That is because combating insurgents and terrorists did not require the same kind of heavy weaponry needed in high-intensity land conflicts.

Ukraine has changed that assumption. During intense fighting in the eastern Donbas region this summer, Russia used more ammunition in two days than the British military has in stock. Under Ukrainian rates of artillery consumption, British stockpiles might last a week and the UK’s European allies are in no better position, according to a report by the Royal United Services Institute think-tank in London.

“The west has a problem with constrained defence industrial capacity,” said Mick Ryan, a former major general in the Australian army. “A major industrial expansion programme will be required if the nations of the west are to rebuild the capacity to design, produce and stockpile . . . large quantities of munitions.”

The second factor is bureaucracy. Governments say they are committed to bigger defence budgets. Yet, amid so much economic uncertainty, they have been slow to write the multiyear procurement contracts that defence groups need to accelerate production.

“It’s a corporate finance problem,” said a senior European defence official. “No company wants to invest in a second factory line to boost production without long-term, contractual certainty. Will Russia still be a threat in five years and, if it’s not, will governments still be buying arms from the companies then?”

This lack of certainty holds on both sides of the Atlantic, say corporate executives. Saab, the Swedish defence and aerospace company which makes NLAWs and Gripen fighter jets, says it has been in talks with several governments about new orders but progress on signing contracts has been slow.

“They are in a situation of ‘show me the money’,” said Mark Cancian, senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “What they [the defence companies] are worried about is that they will expand capacity, then the war will end and the defence department will cut the contracts.”

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Sinnavuuty

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Sorry Russia will win the war

Former CIA adviser says what will remain of Ukraine's territory

The loss of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the problems with the delivery of Western weapons to Kyiv will lead to the fact that by the end of the conflict, the territory of Ukraine will be significantly reduced, wrote former CIA adviser James Rickards in an article for the Daily Reckoning.

"Ukraine will become a fragmented state, occupying the territory between Kyiv and Lvov," the article says.

According to the author of the article, the strength of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has been drastically reduced due to the large number of casualties, and the weapons provided by the West will not be of any use, as Ukrainian soldiers are poorly trained and there are difficulties in the logistics of their transfer to the front line.
 
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