The War in the Ukraine

Zhejiang said:

There is close to a zero percent chance that it’s not damaged, now wether the damage is repairable or not we don’t really know and in this photo they don’t show the stern where the damage would probably be

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I just want to point out that World War II submarines had great capabilities for surviving depth charges that exploded nearby while submerged.
That said, I believe these survivability capabilities have been retained, perhaps even enhanced, on modern submarines.
Therefore, my position is to wait and see and not make assumptions today about possible damage, certain damage, or no damage at all.

sahureka said:

I just want to point out that World War II submarines had great capabilities for surviving depth charges that exploded nearby while submerged.
That said, I believe these survivability capabilities have been retained, perhaps even enhanced, on modern submarines.
Therefore, my position is to wait and see and not make assumptions today about possible damage, certain damage, or no damage at all.

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The explosion was very close to the stern of the submarine so the chances of it being meters away and getting undamaged is small and also notice how Russias proof of no damage never showed the stern only the body

Zhejiang said:

That would just be stupid as no competent military would do that

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Some cuts corners... but the comment was just about all the <<no worries, no damage>> posts.

sahureka said:

I just want to point out that World War II submarines had great capabilities for surviving depth charges that exploded nearby while submerged.
That said, I believe these survivability capabilities have been retained, perhaps even enhanced, on modern submarines.
Therefore, my position is to wait and see and not make assumptions today about possible damage, certain damage, or no damage at all.

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From what I've read in the literature, the effect of the explosion decreases significantly with depth, i.e. pressure. So the effect should be greatest at the surface. However, it seems that the submarine was lucky. However, it's not clear to me where the drone got in. Perhaps through a gate behind the passing ship?

Zhejiang said:

There is close to a zero percent chance that it’s not damaged, now wether the damage is repairable or not we don’t really know and in this photo they don’t show the stern where the damage would probably be

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Pretty sure it's repairable. The other sub in the base took a cruise missile hit before, got repaired and is transferred to the same base. Pressure hulls are extremely strong, the steel they use are different, and Kilos are known to be deep divers. The outer hull could take fragmentation damage but that's repairable. Not sure why the drone is able to so skillfully dodge the barriers only to miss by a mile while inside the dock.

Does not affect any capability either way, as the Russians prefer spamming deep strikes increasingly polarized with only Gerans, Gerbaras, Kinzhals and Iskanders. Subsonic cruise missiles getting out of vogue due to their cost and getting intercepted.

sheogorath said:

Seems the Lada's are finally out of development hell?

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They gave up on using fuel cells and went to using Lithium. That's the breakthrough or I should say, go around.

sheogorath said:

Pretty sure that sub has been repaired already?

Newbuilt BMP-1 for Ukraine...

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2001199940282839073

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As I mentioned in another thread, BMP-1/2 hulls are tougher than what the Internet media puts them out for, at least on the forward arc. The fact they are welded steel instead of aluminum is a big plus over M113/Bradley/BMP-3 and other toys with aluminum. Steel does not burn like aluminum. On top of this, modern steels are going to be stronger than the Soviet era. There were requests to resume BMP-2 production but the Russian MoD has resisted those to focus on the BMP-3.

Tam said:

They gave up on using fuel cells and went to using Lithium. That's the breakthrough or I should say, go around.

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Yes, they recently opened a large lithium battery factory.

Footage of a Russian FPV drone striking a Ukrainian Panzerhaubitze 2000 self-propelled gun. The location and drone model are not disclosed. The Panzerhaubitze 2000 self-propelled gun has been produced in Germany since 1998, but is now rarely seen in the Ukrainian army; perhaps there are few howitzers left. As a result of the Russian drone attack, the Ukrainian army's Panzerhaubitze 2000 self-propelled gun was destroyed by fire.

Tam said:

Pretty sure it's repairable. The other sub in the base took a cruise missile hit before, got repaired and is transferred to the same base. Pressure hulls are extremely strong, the steel they use are different, and Kilos are known to be deep divers. The outer hull could take fragmentation damage but that's repairable. Not sure why the drone is able to so skillfully dodge the barriers only to miss by a mile while inside the dock.

Does not affect any capability either way, as the Russians prefer spamming deep strikes increasingly polarized with only Gerans, Gerbaras, Kinzhals and Iskanders. Subsonic cruise missiles getting out of vogue due to their cost and getting intercepted.



They gave up on using fuel cells and went to using Lithium. That's the breakthrough or I should say, go around.

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It’s almost certain that the miss was a result of shitty use of AI targeting and the drone mistook the shed on the peer as the sail of the kilo and zero’d in on the shed. Any collateral damage to the real kilo would just be dumb luck of it being parked where it was so close to that shed.

This is not the first time Ukraine has done the hard part of getting munitions within striking distance of high value targets but fumbled the final strike due to over-reliance on cheap AI and lacking secondary terminal targeting. The two may indeed be related if they paid such a premium for western tech bro super-duper AI and didn’t have any budget left for a decent camera and/or secondary terminal guidance sensors.

Rare footage of the use of a Russian Lancet-51 kamikaze drone to strike a Ukrainian gas storage facility near the village of Semenovka in Ukraine's Chernihiv Oblast. This is not the first Russian drone strike on Ukraine's gas infrastructure in the Chernihiv Oblast.