New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) in China

[superdog]

Bro your opinion, did they achieved what they wanted, Nokia and Ericsson telecom gear sales had recovered after Huawei was sanction, so from that statistic alone, mission accomplished BUT I argue Huawei lead increases as they had done multiple advancement in 5G application as they offer solution using their tech.

If they just wanted to slow down Chinese global influence on 5G and and on mobile electronics, yes they've got what they wanted. Foreign tech reliance made it impossible for China to dodge this.

Did they "win" the tech war or the trade war (using these sanctions as bargaining chip)? Nope.

As a side effect, they have fueled a massive push on self sufficiency for Huawei and for the entire chinese tech sector. So it begs the question: "We crippled Huawei for now, but at what cost?"

 

[Totoro]

If BYD is banned in western countries, then western brands will also be banned in China.

That's not the most likely sequence of events thought. This is:
European carmakers will keep losing market share in China.
At the same time, they will also be losing market share in Europe to Chinese car brands, albeit at a slower pace.
At one point, the number of European cars sold in China will be so low that keeping the Chinese market will not be deemed worth losing the European market anymore.
Espeically because in China it's the Chinese state that gets part of the money, employing Chinese workers.
While in Europe it's European countries employing their workers.
So Europe will start start putting up roadblocks. First in the form of higher tariffs. On cars or just car parts that get shipped to Chinese owned factories in europe. Then in the form of no licences to new Chinese owned factories in Europe. Then ultimately pushing out existing Chinese factories from Europe.
Basically, it will be whatever it takes.
Because carmaking in Europe is a matter of economic life or death.
Losing Chinese market is one thing.
But losing European market and European workers in carmaking sector is not something European governments will allow.

 

[AndrewS]

In fact I don't think the TW scenario will necessarily result in full decoupling. Nevertheless, if a full decoupling is not what we are discussing, then I see even less reason to assert that "if one gets banned the rest must be banned too". Huawei (and other selections on US entity list) already suggested otherwise.
.

@Topazchen

On a Taiwan-China conflict

"Officials in Berlin acknowledge in private that Germany would not be able to endorse anything beyond token sanctions against China"

"the study notes that the Chinese are reducing their dependence on the region, while European exposure to China is increasing."

politico.eu/article/why-germany-wont-get-tough-on-beijing-even-if-it-invades-taiwan/

 

[PopularScience]

Huawei does not produce Lidar, ultrasonic radar or the megapixel camera. It also currently does not produce the SOC that are used to power autonomous driving to the best of my knowledge. Pretty much all of the Chinese automakers are invested in Horizon Robotics.

Huawei will probably work something out with all the legacy Chinese automakers to supply them this solution. That's why BYD would regard Huawei as a major competitor. If you are BYD, you do not want to have inferior product to Huawei, since that means your own cars might be worse than Geely or ChangAn produced ones.

Wrong. Huawei produces all items that you mentioned. Please see the following video. Start from 18:40

 

[AndrewS]

That's not the most likely sequence of events thought. This is:
European carmakers will keep losing market share in China.
At the same time, they will also be losing market share in Europe to Chinese car brands, albeit at a slower pace.
At one point, the number of European cars sold in China will be so low that keeping the Chinese market will not be deemed worth losing the European market anymore.
Espeically because in China it's the Chinese state that gets part of the money, employing Chinese workers.
While in Europe it's European countries employing their workers.

But the problem here is that German carmakers will have large sunk costs with billions of investments in EV factories and battery plants in China.

Given China's advantages in terms of cost, better technology and ability to scale production - it makes sense to use China as an export base for the Global South where there is less protectionism.

So Europe will start start putting up roadblocks. First in the form of higher tariffs. On cars or just car parts that get shipped to Chinese owned factories in europe.

Higher tariffs on foreign car components have already been written into European law as part of the Brexit agreement. They come into force in a few years.

Then in the form of no licences to new Chinese owned factories in Europe. Then ultimately pushing out existing Chinese factories from Europe.
Basically, it will be whatever it takes.
Because carmaking in Europe is a matter of economic life or death.
Losing Chinese market is one thing.
But losing European market and European workers in carmaking sector is not something European governments will allow.

The EU is based around internal free trade and investments. The EU has no licensing laws on foreign investments that it can effectively use, and the default position for the EU and the individual countries is to encourage inward investments.

For the next 5+ years, there will be a battery shortage and Chinese battery makers have access to that supply. At the same time, sales of ICE vehicles will crash.

So EU automakers are signing deals to obtain Chinese batteries made in the EU because the alternative is bankruptcy. Once these Chinese factories are built in Europe, European carmakers and the host countries will protect that supply. They can also point out that Chinese LFP batteries are safer and cheaper than the batteries elsewhere. It will get us to zero carbon emissions faster and also reduce dependence on Russian oil.

Chinese automotive companies building factories in Europe is not a bad thing, and is kindof seen as inevitable anyway.

---

So I expect European carmakers to survive and avoid bankruptcy.

Especially since the European/Chinese/Tesla will be eating market share from the Japanese automotive companies and other legacy automakers.

 

[SteelBird]

BYD is launching the Atto 3 this evening in Cambodia. Price is told to be 40,000+. Exact launch will be announced on the launch ceremony.

 

[ansy1968]

But the problem here is that German carmakers will have large sunk costs with billions of investments in EV factories and battery plants in China.

Given China's advantages in terms of cost, better technology and ability to scale production - it makes sense to use China as an export base for the Global South where there is less protectionism.



Higher tariffs on foreign car components have already been written into European law as part of the Brexit agreement. They come into force in a few years.



The EU is based around internal free trade and investments. The EU has no licensing laws on foreign investments that it can effectively use, and the default position for the EU and the individual countries is to encourage inward investments.

For the next 5+ years, there will be a battery shortage and Chinese battery makers have access to that supply. At the same time, sales of ICE vehicles will crash.

So EU automakers are signing deals to obtain Chinese batteries made in the EU because the alternative is bankruptcy. Once these Chinese factories are built in Europe, European carmakers and the host countries will protect that supply. They can also point out that Chinese LFP batteries are safer and cheaper than the batteries elsewhere. It will get us to zero carbon emissions faster and also reduce dependence on Russian oil.

Chinese automotive companies building factories in Europe is not a bad thing, and is kindof seen as inevitable anyway.

---

So I expect European carmakers to survive and avoid bankruptcy.

Especially since the European/Chinese/Tesla will be eating market share from the Japanese automotive companies and other legacy automakers.

Bro building battery plant in Europe had merit what about those in the US? Will China allow its company to build them there as the Geopolitical Tension heats up.

 

[AndrewS]

Bro building battery plant in Europe had merit what about those in the US? Will China allow its company to build them there as the Geopolitical Tension heats up.

I think Chinese battery plants will end up in Mexico. It's cheaper and doesn't have the same geopolitical risk

 

[tphuang]

In fact I don't think the TW scenario will necessarily result in full decoupling. Nevertheless, if a full decoupling is not what we are discussing, then I see even less reason to assert that "if one gets banned the rest must be banned too". Huawei (and other selections on US entity list) already suggested otherwise.

You said you don't see how I can argue that BYD has similar or higher security risk to Huawei. I already gave my rationale in the previous post, as I provided example on how they could convincingly frame BYD as a spying/national security/public safety risk.

I'm saying that if BYD gets banned due to being successful, it will be because Chinese EV industry is too successful as a whole. In that case, Western countries will also ban NIO, Geely and all the battery makers. There will be retaliatory bans from China for sure. BYD is so large that a ban on BYD would have ripple affect across the entire industry.

BYD is just not regarded on the same level as security risk as Huawei. No company is regarded at Huawei's level in security risk. That's a fact. BYD commercial EVs right now are all over North America. BYD energy storage services are sold every in America. BYD is basically the dominant player in both fields in America. There hasn't been single complaint about security risk or anything like that. In fact, the Californian government is extremely pro-BYD due to their large factory in lancaster.

I think you made your deductions from a false permise: that Huawei was actually banned because it was unsafe, so Chinses EV should avoid Huawei parts to reduce concern in western markets.

I think you and several others are offended that I think Chinese automakers should avoid Huawei if they want to export their cars. The reality is Huawei has a reputation outside of China that would bring uncomfortable questions. Up until now, Chinese automakers that export to Europe do not use Huawei smart EV products on those cars.

People are way to obsessed with Huawei on this forum.

Let me remind you this: the primary reason US banned Huawei is not because they fear Huawei as a security risk (otherwise a domestic market ban is enough, it can't explain the TSMC supply chain ban). Their primary intention is to stop or slow down China's technoloical rise. Therefore it doesn't matter what you and I think BYD's actual security risk is, or how it compares to Huawei, this is irrelevant. What's actually relevant to a potential ban is how successful and influential BYD (or any other Chinese tech brands) will become. National security is an excuse and that excuse can easily be made against BYD products as soon as they decide to do so.

What works for BYD is that cars are less reliant on cutting edge nodes than mobile phones, and when BYD reaches Huawei level influence, Chinese semiconductor manufacturing will be much more self sufficient than when Trump attacked Huawei. So while there are still risks of market ban, a supply chain ban is less likely to be effective and therefore less likely to be enforced.

I'm not going to argue why Huawei is banned with someone who is clearly passionate about it.

You do realize there are many Chinese products in use in Europe that are successful and not banned for security reasons right? Basically everything we buy now is made in China. A lot of them right inside my home. I use security cameras that are made in China and that can upload my home videos to Chinese cloud services. Heck, despite all the complaints, tik tok and wechat are still not banned in America.

The traditional roadblock to auto import is high tariffs. There is already a 25% tariff on made in China cars in America. They can always increase that if they don't want Chinese automakers making too much money. The reality is no one here in America is calling for a ban of Chinese cars for national security reasons. They may do it for economic security reasons in the future, but that will be a long time away. Again, Huawei has a terrible reputation in Western countries. automakers that want to export to Western countries are going to avoid Huawei.

Wrong. Huawei produces all items that you mentioned. Please see the following video. Start from 18:40

Even more reason for BYD to create their own and defeat Huawei then.

BYD is launching the Atto 3 this evening in Cambodia. Price is told to be 40,000+. Exact launch will be announced on the launch ceremony.

Is that 40k+ in USD? That seems like really expensive for such a nearby import. What is the import tax like?

 

[ansy1968]

People are way to obsessed with Huawei on this forum.

Sir I think you misunderstood, the reason why BYD and other Chinese company are able to escape the clutches of the American is because of Huawei, they haven't kill the beast yet. That is the reasoning why all Chinese company will work with Huawei cause using American tech is NOT An Option.

The traditional roadblock to auto import is high tariffs. There is already a 25% tariff on made in China cars in America. They can always increase that if they don't want Chinese automakers making too much money. The reality is no one here in America is calling for a ban of Chinese cars for national security reasons. They may do it for economic security reasons in the future, but that will be a long time away. Again, Huawei has a terrible reputation in Western countries. automakers that want to export to Western countries are going to avoid Huawei.

Says who? I'm a Huawei Phone user and I won't replace it even you gave me an Iphone.

Even more reason for BYD to create their own and defeat Huawei then.

Again Sir I respectfully disagree, right now EV is a booming industries the pie is large enough for everyone to partake, Huawei is not building EV Car they're more focus on providing support on OS systems, drive train and other critical EV components. EV is a consumer product so is Smartphone, they're leveraging their 5g expertise. So the question is how can BYD defeat Huawei on its CORE business.