New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) in China

[henrik]

There is a difference between having an auto OS and having one capable of L3/L4 autonomous driving. For something L2 or lower, the requirement is low enough that most automakers can probably develop their own system.


If BYD gets banned, CATL and gotten and others will get banned too. Western automakers will get banned from China. With Huawei, Western government can use the national security argument. The most they can say about BYD is economic security. Aside from America, that line is not going to work anywhere else. BYD is already shipping over 1000 cars to Australia and NZ. It will probably build plants in Europe (Hungary or Poland) and have no issues in EU market. Frankly, countries like Hungary and Poland would rather build foreign cars in their country than just accepting them from Germany.

Remember, people (at least the liberals) like BYD for it being a major player in the fight against climate change. Huawei has basically no admirers anywhere in the West.

There were rumors a year ago that Song+ EV will use Huawei motor, but there has not been any evidence of that in action. In fact, Song+ platform is pretty much only selling DM-i models at the moment.


Huawei does not produce Lidar, ultrasonic radar or the megapixel camera. It also currently does not produce the SOC that are used to power autonomous driving to the best of my knowledge. Pretty much all of the Chinese automakers are invested in Horizon Robotics.

Huawei will probably work something out with all the legacy Chinese automakers to supply them this solution. That's why BYD would regard Huawei as a major competitor. If you are BYD, you do not want to have inferior product to Huawei, since that means your own cars might be worse than Geely or ChangAn produced ones.


As I said above, this CATL/Mercedes news is huge. a 100 GWh plant for Mercedes and probably BMW would cover a good chunk of EV production from those 2 automakers. I'm sure they will eventually add even more plants by 2030 (assuming geopolitics don't change). Chinese battery makers have the entire European automaker market locked down. LG Chem and Panasonic are basically only able to get deals in America.

Big news for Geely as it owns about 10% of Daimler AG.

 

[superdog]

If BYD gets banned, CATL and gotten and others will get banned too.

What? I don't get your logic here.

Western automakers will get banned from China.

Yeah, back in the days some people also thought US wouldn't dare to ban Huawei, because "Apple will get banned from China".

With Huawei, Western government can use the national security argument. The most they can say about BYD is economic security. Aside from America, that line is not going to work anywhere else. BYD is already shipping over 1000 cars to Australia and NZ. It will probably build plants in Europe (Hungary or Poland) and have no issues in EU market. Frankly, countries like Hungary and Poland would rather build foreign cars in their country than just accepting them from Germany.

Remember, people (at least the liberals) like BYD for it being a major player in the fight against climate change. Huawei has basically no admirers anywhere in the West.

Have you not heard that Tesla has been banned from sensitive locations in China? German police contemplated doing that too. You lacked imagination if you don't think politicians could come up with some national security reason to ban BYD. A car full of sensors and communication capability could certainly be portrayed as a spying risk (and they do have that potential, hence China's precaution). It could even be used directly as a weapon due to drive-by-wire, or become a bomb with high density batteries, that's far more deadly than a phone.

The way they banned Russian-bred cats and Russian Musicians after the Ukraine invasion already revealed how easy it is to turn public opinions around, and how far they could push it towards irrationality. Imagine what would happen after a forced unification of TW.

I'm not saying such a ban will happen, I certainly hope it won't (I own a ton of BYD stock). But I think it would be naive to believe that BYD is inherently safe from such a scenario.

 

[tphuang]

What? I don't get your logic here.


Yeah, back in the days some people also thought US wouldn't dare to ban Huawei, because "Apple will get banned from China".


Have you not heard that Tesla has been banned from sensitive locations in China? German police contemplated doing that too. You lacked imagination if you don't think politicians could come up with some national security reason to ban BYD. A car full of sensors and communication capability could certainly be portrayed as a spying risk (and they do have that potential, hence China's precaution). It could even be used directly as a weapon due to drive-by-wire, or become a bomb with high density batteries, that's far more deadly than a phone.

The way they banned Russian-bred cats and Russian Musicians after the Ukraine invasion already revealed how easy it is to turn public opinions around, and how far they could push it towards irrationality. Imagine what would happen after a forced unification of TW.

I'm not saying such a ban will happen, I certainly hope it won't (I own a ton of BYD stock). But I think it would be naive to believe that BYD is inherently safe from such a scenario.

Well, a full decoupling from a war would be out of the scope of this conversation. I think we are only looking at the peace scenarios here.

If one Chinese automaker gets banned, the rest of Chinese automakers and battery suppliers will get banned. The only rationale you can make for that is economic security. If a Chinese automakers get banned or huge tariffs placed on them, you will see similar counter actions from Chinese government on Western automakers.

Regardless, the security risk attached to Huawei is way higher than BYD or any other Chinese automakers. I don't see how you can argue against that. In fact, it would probably be a bad thing for Huawei powered cars to get export to Western countries in the near future, because the security concerns will quickly get spread to other Chinese EVs.

 

[ansy1968]

I wouldn’t be that optimistic about ASEAN market , maybe I’m wrong, Japanese manufacturers see massive potential growth there, and I think they are right this time.
This is what I think will happen, in short time(a year maybe a few months) , there would be big increase (NEV) there, but since their limited electricity infrastructure, the shortcomings would soon not be negligible and the need would be dropping sharply to normal( I mean low)

Bingo!!!! NEV is the New Status Symbol, even with Wuling EV, Not only with limited Power generator BUT with horrendous traffic. We need Mass transit System and Rail is the Answer, not selling cheaper EV only to clog the street IF the goal is to lessen our Carbon footprint.

The time is yet to come, NEVs right now isn’t a everyone’s game. What you described will come eventually, I would wait another decade for that to happen.

My time prediction is 2045 at 25%, ICE will still be the majority, my reasoning with Large economy pursuing EV, cheaper oil will be the norm unless the Gulf State decided to go all green.

 

[Topazchen]

Well, a full decoupling from a war would be out of the scope of this conversation. I think we are only looking at the peace scenarios here.

If one Chinese automaker gets banned, the rest of Chinese automakers and battery suppliers will get banned. The only rationale you can make for that is economic security. If a Chinese automakers get banned or huge tariffs placed on them, you will see similar counter actions from Chinese government on Western automakers.

Regardless, the security risk attached to Huawei is way higher than BYD or any other Chinese automakers. I don't see how you can argue against that. In fact, it would probably be a bad thing for Huawei powered cars to get export to Western countries in the near future, because the security concerns will quickly get spread to other Chinese EVs.

China- being the biggest auto market-holds a lot of leverage here. We have some companies like GM and VW that sell more cars in China than in their respective home countries. Mercedes sells more cars in China than in the US and the auto industry - being very important to Germany's economy - would lobby hard.

China if I'm not wrong is a 26 million a year auto market and sanctions and counter sanctions would play right into China's hands.

Chinese car companies would suddenly have a captive market of 26 million car buyers a year. Who wouldn't want that?

 

[tphuang]

Here is the global new vehicle sales for 2021. China was at 26 million in 2021, which is almost 1/3 of total world market.

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CATL factory is not just supply Mercedes, but also BMW, Stellantis and VW. What more do you need to know? Chinese battery makers got the entire German automotive industry cornered now.

BYD cars have now arrived in Australia and will get delivered in the coming weeks. I heard Q4 will be a huge export quarter for BYD. I think they will hit 10k by December.

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My time prediction is 2045 at 25%, ICE will still be the majority, my reasoning with Large economy pursuing EV, cheaper oil will be the norm unless the Gulf State decided to go all green.

well, China is 1/3 of the market and it will be 100% NEV for new sales by 2035. Europe and North America will be mostly NEV for new sales by then too.

All you are telling me is that China needs to help ASEAN countries to build up EV infrastructure. For example, Thailand has an ambitious EV charging station plan.

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China- being the biggest auto market-holds a lot of leverage here. We have some companies like GM and VW that sell more cars in China than in their respective home countries. Mercedes sells more cars in China than in the US and the auto industry - being very important to Germany's economy - would lobby hard.

Aside from that all the German automakers have just become entirely dependent on Chinese battery supply chain with the CATL deal.

 

[ansy1968]

well, China is 1/3 of the market and it will be 100% NEV for new sales by 2035. Europe and North America will be mostly NEV for new sales by then too.

All you are telling me is that China needs to help ASEAN countries to build up EV infrastructure. For example, Thailand has an ambitious EV charging station plan.

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Sir what I'm saying is WE in the Global South need Mass Transport System and the only answer is Rail system. Even IF the Chinese help push EV infrastructure it will only add to the problem instead of finding a solution of solving the heavy Traffic as you replace an ICE vehicle with an EV.

 

[superdog]

Well, a full decoupling from a war would be out of the scope of this conversation. I think we are only looking at the peace scenarios here.

If one Chinese automaker gets banned, the rest of Chinese automakers and battery suppliers will get banned. The only rationale you can make for that is economic security. If a Chinese automakers get banned or huge tariffs placed on them, you will see similar counter actions from Chinese government on Western automakers.

Regardless, the security risk attached to Huawei is way higher than BYD or any other Chinese automakers. I don't see how you can argue against that. In fact, it would probably be a bad thing for Huawei powered cars to get export to Western countries in the near future, because the security concerns will quickly get spread to other Chinese EVs.

In fact I don't think the TW scenario will necessarily result in full decoupling. Nevertheless, if a full decoupling is not what we are discussing, then I see even less reason to assert that "if one gets banned the rest must be banned too". Huawei (and other selections on US entity list) already suggested otherwise.

You said you don't see how I can argue that BYD has similar or higher security risk to Huawei. I already gave my rationale in the previous post, as I provided example on how they could convincingly frame BYD as a spying/national security/public safety risk.

I think you made your deductions from a false permise: that Huawei was actually banned because it was unsafe, so Chinses EV should avoid Huawei parts to reduce concern in western markets.

Let me remind you this: the primary reason US banned Huawei is not because they fear Huawei as a security risk (otherwise a domestic market ban is enough, it can't explain the TSMC supply chain ban). Their primary intention is to stop or slow down China's technoloical rise. Therefore it doesn't matter what you and I think BYD's actual security risk is, or how it compares to Huawei, this is irrelevant. What's actually relevant to a potential ban is how successful and influential BYD (or any other Chinese tech brands) will become. National security is an excuse and that excuse can easily be made against BYD products as soon as they decide to do so.

What works for BYD is that cars are less reliant on cutting edge nodes than mobile phones, and when BYD reaches Huawei level influence, Chinese semiconductor manufacturing will be much more self sufficient than when Trump attacked Huawei. So while there are still risks of market ban, a supply chain ban is less likely to be effective and therefore less likely to be enforced.

 

[vincent]

Let me remind you this: the primary reason US banned Huawei is not because they fear Huawei as a security risk (otherwise a domestic market ban is enough, it can't explain the TSMC supply chain ban). Their primary intention is to stop or slow down China's technoloical rise. Therefore it doesn't matter what you and I think BYD's actual security risk is, or how it compares to Huawei, this is irrelevant. What's actually relevant to a potential ban is how successful and influential BYD (or any other Chinese tech brands) will become. National security is an excuse and that excuse can easily be made against BYD products as soon as they decide to do so.

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For those don’t know Chinese history, one of the famous general 岳飞 in the 宋 dynasty became too powerful. The emperor’s court arrested him and his sons. When someone asked the prime minister why, he answered “he might be guilty of something”

 

[ansy1968]

Let me remind you this: the primary reason US banned Huawei is not because they fear Huawei as a security risk (otherwise a domestic market ban is enough, it can't explain the TSMC supply chain ban). Their primary intention is to stop or slow down China's technoloical rise. Therefore it doesn't matter what you and I think BYD's actual security risk is, or how it compares to Huawei, this is irrelevant. What's actually relevant to a potential ban is how successful and influential BYD (or any other Chinese tech brands) will become. National security is an excuse and that excuse can easily be made against BYD products as soon as they decide to do so.

What works for BYD is that cars are less reliant on cutting edge nodes than mobile phones, and when BYD reaches Huawei level influence, Chinese semiconductor manufacturing will be much more self sufficient than when Trump attacked Huawei. So while there are still risks of market ban, a supply chain ban is less likely to be effective and therefore less likely to be enforced.

Bro your opinion, did they achieved what they wanted, Nokia and Ericsson telecom gear sales had recovered after Huawei was sanction, so from that statistic alone, mission accomplished BUT I argue Huawei lead increases as they had done multiple advancement in 5G application as they offer solution using their tech.