And China can play the Kashmir card. And the Bhutan card. And the Nepal card... Pretty sure the deck is stacked in this case.
Although we really shouldn't devote too much brain power to a random Indian MP, they are a dime a dozen.
Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis
- Thread starter sndef888
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And China can play the Kashmir card. And the Bhutan card. And the Nepal card... Pretty sure the deck is stacked in this case.
Although we really shouldn't devote too much brain power to a random Indian MP, they are a dime a dozen.
The current development reminds me a lot about the Beiping Model and the Tianjin model during 解放战争 (I dislike the term Chinese Civil War for various reasons). Now I actually think armed reunification is actually not that necessary and we may actually see peaceful reunification in the next 5 - 10 years, in line with what Xi and many CPC higher-ups have been suggesting in the past many years. It seems like this has always been the plan, things have just become obvious to us lay-folks after the Pelosi event - I was a firm believer of AR prior to this, but now I think a peaceful reunification is a much more powerful game plan with profound impacts to the balance of power in West Pacific.
I'll explain my rationale, starting with a bit of history:
In the 3rd phase of 解放战争, PingJin campaign（平津战役）, PLA's goal is to liberate Beiping (Beijing's previous name during ROC peroid) and the costal city of Tianjin. Beiping was a tricky matter as its liberation has high political significance as it's been the capital for a few dynasties in China (duh - which is why it's the current Chinese capital) and there are a lot of historical sites that needed to be preserved. Mao did not want to forcefully take the city, although he could. KMT's commander in Beiping thought he could hold off the PLA for some time and use that as leverage for subsequent negotiations, and the KMT defender of Tianjin was a trusted subordinate of his, and Tianjin was especially heavily fortified and defended by the KMT troops.
Long story short, PLA surrounded Beiping and negotiated with Fu (KMT commander defending Beiping) and Fu would not surrender believing he still has a chance to play this out. In the mean time, PLA attacked Tianjin after a few rounds of negotiations and steamrolled the KMT defendants, and captured the KMT commander alive within 29 hours of fighting and eliminated 130,000 KMT defenders. So the Tianjin model summarized in a few words would be giving you a heads up then properly f**king your s**t up.
Having seen his most trusted subordinate properly f**ked in Tianjin, Fu essentially gave up and surrendered, and agreed to laid down arms and let PLA in under immense psychological and military pressure from the PLA and CPC spies. Mao was able to take Beiping without firing a single bullet. That is the Beiping model - a classic example of 不战而屈人之兵 (a force that can defeat opponents without fighting) described in the Art of War.
I believe a combination of Tianjin and Beiping model has always been the plan for Taiwan. Although AR would seem satisfying to a lot of people and will showcase the capability of the PLA to the world, it is not the most ideal solution.
Remember - 主不可以怒而兴师，将不可以愠而致战。合于利而动，不合于利而止 (lords and generals shall not wage war due to anger/rage, only strike when there is tangible benefit, make no move if there is nothing to be gained) - CPC's ultimate goal is the great rejuvenation of the Chinese civilization, and a key pillar in this goal is to undermine US dominance in West Pacific. Reunify Taiwan under the most ideal situation contributes to this goal; AR can put up a good show, but it is not the most ideal solution and has significant risks and drawbacks - you can never fully control the fallout of a war, wars can have direct and indirect impact on nations' fates for many decades and you will never know if it ultimately serves your purpose or not. (Think about how the Vietnam War contributed to the onset of hippies and civil rights movement, then the woke culture, and subsequently the current trans-movement. A US general in the 1960s would not have imagined that the decisions to send Marines to South Vietnam may mean that a non-insignificant portion of the US armed forces in the 2030s may be made up of transgendered people... Although this example is a bit exaggerated lol but you get my point)
Now how would peaceful reunification be achieved? By combining both Beiping and Tianjin model: immense military, economic, and psychological pressure, Taiwan may actually cave in and give up in a few years when its people can no loner bear the suffering. If the type of exercise we are witnessing these couple of days from the PLA becomes routine, and happens like 2 - 3 times a year for the next couple of years, how would that impact Taiwan's economy? If Taiwan's infrastructures are constantly under cyber-attack (apparently Taiwan's police system has been attacked and it is not currently functional), normal people will feel that (I really felt it when Rogers went down for a full day a little bit ago in Canada). What if every couple of weeks a few PLA drones fly over Taiwan in the middle of the night over populated cities and make huge noises, do they shoot them down or not? What if every couple of months PLA started mass assembling and pretend to launch a AR which forces all Taiwanese people to have to go hide in shelters? There are literally so many military options to make everyone in Taiwan suffer more and more each day, and it can just get worse by each day.
And we are not even counting the economic front. Decades of 惠台 (benefit-Taiwan) policies from CPC is such a screwed-up and brilliant move, regardless of their original intensions, the fact of the matter is that these policies made so much of Taiwan's economy to be dependent on the mainland. If you simply take these policies away, Taiwan would suffer, and we are not even talking about actual sanctions. I'm not going to list all the possibilities but you can imagine (TSMC and the semi-conductor industry alone cannot feed all Taiwanese).
In an extreme scenario, maybe in 5 years, your normal Taiwanese can experience what it is like right to live in Russia in 1991. After all, no business and capital would want to stay on a tiny island that is at risk of suffering armed conflict and they would gradually pull out, all the rich Taiwanese as well - which is not the majority of the Taiwanese. What would be left?
Look at Sri Lanka, I'm pretty sure it was one of the richest nations in South Asia by per capital GDP a few years ago, but Covid and the war in Ukraine has completely changed the fate of this nation. We don't know how much suffering CPC can bring to Taiwan through military and economic pressure, but I don't think it can be taken lightly. By then, if Taiwan just agrees to reunify with China, then this could all disappear, do you think the Taiwanese people would want that? No one can be 100% sure, a lot of things can change really quickly in the span of a few years (e.g., think about PLAN in 2011 vs 2021, or US - China relationships 2017 vs 2022) but let's just say that even if by then Taiwan still does not want to peacefully reunify with the mainland, these kind of things can make AR so much more easier than today.
I think the US has really left itself in a very awkward position. With Pelosi's visit there is literally not much else they could do to about the Taiwan card other than declaring Taiwan's independence formally or station troops directly on Taiwan. I don't think they want to do those things. But Pelosi's visit enables CPC to do all of the things I mentioned above, and the US can't really do much about it unless they directly intervene militarily. The US military may intervene during a scenario of AR, but the likelihood of them intervening militarily when the CPC and PLA are doing the things I mentioned above is really slim. I don't think the US has any more cards to play after this, from now on, it is the CPC that will be making future moves and the US can only follow when it comes to Taiwan.
I kind of feel like this is CPC's plan for a while now, contingencies have been set up to initiate the a certain process on Taiwan, and they're just waiting for US to make its move - by crossing the "red line" for domestic political purposes, China will exploit this opportunity and kickstart the planned contingency. WJP's recent article suggested this as well.
So yeah, that's basically some of the things I thought about in the past 2 days. I guess that is my prediction lol - peaceful reunification is possible within the next 5 - 10 years, but by then yall probably would no longer care about Taiwan as it is no longer that relevant
Do you agree? Disagree? Any thoughts?
I'll explain my rationale, starting with a bit of history:
In the 3rd phase of 解放战争, PingJin campaign（平津战役）, PLA's goal is to liberate Beiping (Beijing's previous name during ROC peroid) and the costal city of Tianjin. Beiping was a tricky matter as its liberation has high political significance as it's been the capital for a few dynasties in China (duh - which is why it's the current Chinese capital) and there are a lot of historical sites that needed to be preserved. Mao did not want to forcefully take the city, although he could. KMT's commander in Beiping thought he could hold off the PLA for some time and use that as leverage for subsequent negotiations, and the KMT defender of Tianjin was a trusted subordinate of his, and Tianjin was especially heavily fortified and defended by the KMT troops.
Long story short, PLA surrounded Beiping and negotiated with Fu (KMT commander defending Beiping) and Fu would not surrender believing he still has a chance to play this out. In the mean time, PLA attacked Tianjin after a few rounds of negotiations and steamrolled the KMT defendants, and captured the KMT commander alive within 29 hours of fighting and eliminated 130,000 KMT defenders. So the Tianjin model summarized in a few words would be giving you a heads up then properly f**king your s**t up.
Having seen his most trusted subordinate properly f**ked in Tianjin, Fu essentially gave up and surrendered, and agreed to laid down arms and let PLA in under immense psychological and military pressure from the PLA and CPC spies. Mao was able to take Beiping without firing a single bullet. That is the Beiping model - a classic example of 不战而屈人之兵 (a force that can defeat opponents without fighting) described in the Art of War.
I believe a combination of Tianjin and Beiping model has always been the plan for Taiwan. Although AR would seem satisfying to a lot of people and will showcase the capability of the PLA to the world, it is not the most ideal solution.
Remember - 主不可以怒而兴师，将不可以愠而致战。合于利而动，不合于利而止 (lords and generals shall not wage war due to anger/rage, only strike when there is tangible benefit, make no move if there is nothing to be gained) - CPC's ultimate goal is the great rejuvenation of the Chinese civilization, and a key pillar in this goal is to undermine US dominance in West Pacific. Reunify Taiwan under the most ideal situation contributes to this goal; AR can put up a good show, but it is not the most ideal solution and has significant risks and drawbacks - you can never fully control the fallout of a war, wars can have direct and indirect impact on nations' fates for many decades and you will never know if it ultimately serves your purpose or not. (Think about how the Vietnam War contributed to the onset of hippies and civil rights movement, then the woke culture, and subsequently the current trans-movement. A US general in the 1960s would not have imagined that the decisions to send Marines to South Vietnam may mean that a non-insignificant portion of the US armed forces in the 2030s may be made up of transgendered people... Although this example is a bit exaggerated lol but you get my point)
Now how would peaceful reunification be achieved? By combining both Beiping and Tianjin model: immense military, economic, and psychological pressure, Taiwan may actually cave in and give up in a few years when its people can no loner bear the suffering. If the type of exercise we are witnessing these couple of days from the PLA becomes routine, and happens like 2 - 3 times a year for the next couple of years, how would that impact Taiwan's economy? If Taiwan's infrastructures are constantly under cyber-attack (apparently Taiwan's police system has been attacked and it is not currently functional), normal people will feel that (I really felt it when Rogers went down for a full day a little bit ago in Canada). What if every couple of weeks a few PLA drones fly over Taiwan in the middle of the night over populated cities and make huge noises, do they shoot them down or not? What if every couple of months PLA started mass assembling and pretend to launch a AR which forces all Taiwanese people to have to go hide in shelters? There are literally so many military options to make everyone in Taiwan suffer more and more each day, and it can just get worse by each day.
And we are not even counting the economic front. Decades of 惠台 (benefit-Taiwan) policies from CPC is such a screwed-up and brilliant move, regardless of their original intensions, the fact of the matter is that these policies made so much of Taiwan's economy to be dependent on the mainland. If you simply take these policies away, Taiwan would suffer, and we are not even talking about actual sanctions. I'm not going to list all the possibilities but you can imagine (TSMC and the semi-conductor industry alone cannot feed all Taiwanese).
In an extreme scenario, maybe in 5 years, your normal Taiwanese can experience what it is like right to live in Russia in 1991. After all, no business and capital would want to stay on a tiny island that is at risk of suffering armed conflict and they would gradually pull out, all the rich Taiwanese as well - which is not the majority of the Taiwanese. What would be left?
Look at Sri Lanka, I'm pretty sure it was one of the richest nations in South Asia by per capital GDP a few years ago, but Covid and the war in Ukraine has completely changed the fate of this nation. We don't know how much suffering CPC can bring to Taiwan through military and economic pressure, but I don't think it can be taken lightly. By then, if Taiwan just agrees to reunify with China, then this could all disappear, do you think the Taiwanese people would want that? No one can be 100% sure, a lot of things can change really quickly in the span of a few years (e.g., think about PLAN in 2011 vs 2021, or US - China relationships 2017 vs 2022) but let's just say that even if by then Taiwan still does not want to peacefully reunify with the mainland, these kind of things can make AR so much more easier than today.
I think the US has really left itself in a very awkward position. With Pelosi's visit there is literally not much else they could do to about the Taiwan card other than declaring Taiwan's independence formally or station troops directly on Taiwan. I don't think they want to do those things. But Pelosi's visit enables CPC to do all of the things I mentioned above, and the US can't really do much about it unless they directly intervene militarily. The US military may intervene during a scenario of AR, but the likelihood of them intervening militarily when the CPC and PLA are doing the things I mentioned above is really slim. I don't think the US has any more cards to play after this, from now on, it is the CPC that will be making future moves and the US can only follow when it comes to Taiwan.
I kind of feel like this is CPC's plan for a while now, contingencies have been set up to initiate the a certain process on Taiwan, and they're just waiting for US to make its move - by crossing the "red line" for domestic political purposes, China will exploit this opportunity and kickstart the planned contingency. WJP's recent article suggested this as well.
So yeah, that's basically some of the things I thought about in the past 2 days. I guess that is my prediction lol - peaceful reunification is possible within the next 5 - 10 years, but by then yall probably would no longer care about Taiwan as it is no longer that relevant
Do you agree? Disagree? Any thoughts?
One of the guy claim that China invented the "1st island chain" concept to protect themselves, but i thought I read in a US paper(may have been lemay) that the US created the 1st island chain to contain China.
Any case, it was intresting to hear from US govt offical talking about China without foaming at the mouth.
US carrier Reagan into the straits is not for now but at a later future date
Thank you for this excellent piece.
I think the firing of the missiles will also have a strong effect on public opinion in Okinawa. People are already weary that involvement in Taiwan would bring war to the island, and of course the continuing debacle over MCAS Futenma is still happening, but it is "for real". This could lead to more active opposition on the island against involvement with Taiwan and the US presence on the island.
On the other hand, however, things don't look good for Japan proper. The average person is probably either a) swayed by right-wing media into believing the "China threat" and thus supports further interaction with Taiwan and the US because... that somehow brings peace and safety? or b) believes interaction with Taiwan is causing "tension" but is too blase to politics to actually oppose it (not that they really could because of reasons described below).
The current Japanese government itself might be doomed though. The conservative ruling bloc has a majority in the Diet, allowing them to amend the constitution. The amendment they propose is not a mere change in terminology or simple recognition of the JSDF: if the JSDF is recognized, together with the law allowing for collective self-defence, these two things could be combined to bypass Article 9 and allow a legal intervention in Taiwan under the guise of "self-defence". The exercises could be abused to push the public towards voting for such an amendment (if a fair referendum was even held in the first place).
The issue isn't so much that there isn't opposition to involvement in Taiwan and with the US in Japan- there is a good deal of it- it is just that the whole of the government, business, and media leans towards the LDP, and the LDP is CIA backed. Those opposed to Japanese involvement with Taiwan don't really have much of a chance to do anything about it, or have given up on their opposition to avoid getting accused of being Chinese agents and getting shunned into nothing. Furthermore, a variety of reasons (first and foremost CIA backed LDP domination of the political system since the 1950s, however) have resulted in the youth being uninterested and inactive in politics, so despite them being more likely to oppose involvement in Taiwan in favor of peace, the older, conservative people retain power among the electorate and in government, and thus domestic opposition probably won't be able to stop a potential Japanese intervention.
In a recent update they became available, but unfortunately the DF-17 has an incorrect speed value, so it flies at 4000 knots- allowing it to be intercepted by Patriots. The correct speed would be more on the order of 10000+ knots.
It's weird though, because they added the YJ-21 and it does have a correct hypersonic speed.
On the other hand, however, things don't look good for Japan proper. The average person is probably either a) swayed by right-wing media into believing the "China threat" and thus supports further interaction with Taiwan and the US because... that somehow brings peace and safety? or b) believes interaction with Taiwan is causing "tension" but is too blase to politics to actually oppose it (not that they really could because of reasons described below).
The current Japanese government itself might be doomed though. The conservative ruling bloc has a majority in the Diet, allowing them to amend the constitution. The amendment they propose is not a mere change in terminology or simple recognition of the JSDF: if the JSDF is recognized, together with the law allowing for collective self-defence, these two things could be combined to bypass Article 9 and allow a legal intervention in Taiwan under the guise of "self-defence". The exercises could be abused to push the public towards voting for such an amendment (if a fair referendum was even held in the first place).
The issue isn't so much that there isn't opposition to involvement in Taiwan and with the US in Japan- there is a good deal of it- it is just that the whole of the government, business, and media leans towards the LDP, and the LDP is CIA backed. Those opposed to Japanese involvement with Taiwan don't really have much of a chance to do anything about it, or have given up on their opposition to avoid getting accused of being Chinese agents and getting shunned into nothing. Furthermore, a variety of reasons (first and foremost CIA backed LDP domination of the political system since the 1950s, however) have resulted in the youth being uninterested and inactive in politics, so despite them being more likely to oppose involvement in Taiwan in favor of peace, the older, conservative people retain power among the electorate and in government, and thus domestic opposition probably won't be able to stop a potential Japanese intervention.
In a recent update they became available, but unfortunately the DF-17 has an incorrect speed value, so it flies at 4000 knots- allowing it to be intercepted by Patriots. The correct speed would be more on the order of 10000+ knots.
It's weird though, because they added the YJ-21 and it does have a correct hypersonic speed.
Perhaps its the precedent that it sets, even if its just symbolically "one small step"
Pingtan appears to be already part of China
Can someone enlighten me on how much China and Taiwan depend each other economically especially in a few years time?
I've watched some YouTube and it seems some "experts" believes China would not dare to touch Taiwan cause it's like "shooting own foot" but I'm no expert in such economic thingy thus would like to hear from others whether if let say China sanction Taiwan semiconductor and other highly valuable such is it possible without too much damage on its own economy?
I've watched some YouTube and it seems some "experts" believes China would not dare to touch Taiwan cause it's like "shooting own foot" but I'm no expert in such economic thingy thus would like to hear from others whether if let say China sanction Taiwan semiconductor and other highly valuable such is it possible without too much damage on its own economy?
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