would MLRS and PGMs be a deterrent force in the taiwan strait against carrier group?

[FriedRiceNSpice]

Re: would MLRS and PGMs be a deterrent force in the taiwan strait against carrier gro

The US would deploy their carriers just off the Eastern coast of Taiwan, or to the east of the northernmost and/or southernmost points of the island. Sailing into a confined strait is best avoided in any kind of scenario if an alternative is available. Even from the east of the island, the USN would be far closers to the air battle than PLAAF aircraft operating from the mainland, and will have the capability to conduct air operations up to the Chinese coast. The reason for the development of submarines, anti-ship ballistic missiles and a credible surface force is because these assets would potentially be able to threaten US naval groups operating anywhere in the theater. However, at the current moment, the PLA has no way to threaten even a single US carrier group operating to the east of Taiwan.

 

[Pointblank]

Re: would MLRS and PGMs be a deterrent force in the taiwan strait against carrier gro

The US would deploy their carriers just off the Eastern coast of Taiwan, or to the east of the northernmost and/or southernmost points of the island. Sailing into a confined strait is best avoided in any kind of scenario if an alternative is available. Even from the east of the island, the USN would be far closers to the air battle than PLAAF aircraft operating from the mainland, and will have the capability to conduct air operations up to the Chinese coast. The reason for the development of submarines, anti-ship ballistic missiles and a credible surface force is because these assets would potentially be able to threaten US naval groups operating anywhere in the theater. However, at the current moment, the PLA has no way to threaten even a single US carrier group operating to the east of Taiwan.

Not to mention the possibility of THREE USN carrier groups...

 

[balance]

China has 1300 ballistic missiles aimed at Taiwan right now, and if China also has the capability to build sea-strike ballistic missiles, and I think the cost of war is cheaper on the Chinese sides than on the defending part, either Taiwan or US.
You have to remember that Guam, Okinawa and South Korea will be monitored 24/7 far before China launched any attack on Taiwan. Any move toward the east part of the strait will be countered far before they arrive to support Taiwan.
Just common sense: all the resources that China has in land vs. all the resources that US brings on its carriers. I think the Chinese part has far more supplies and resources compared to US.

Just my opinion.

The distance form mainland to Taiwan East Coast is about 250 miles (or, 400 km).
DF-11 is about 350 km in range
DF-15 is about 600 km in range (this is the one tested in 1996 near Taiwan coast)

IF PLA decides to launch its 1300 arsenals, please tell me how US carrier group will have to respond? Remember China takes the initiative in the attack, and they will have considered the movement of US carrier group.

How can Taiwan be defensible? In my opinion, geographically, it is indefensible. The west part is just low land, only the eastern part is mountainous. It's just too close to the mainland.

 

[bd popeye]

Re: would MLRS and PGMs be a deterrent force in the taiwan strait against carrier gro

IF PLA decides to launch its 1300 arsenals, please tell me how US carrier group will have to respond? Remember China takes the initiative in the attack, and they will have considered the movement of US carrier group.

The US, if hostilities were deffintlently imminent, The US theater commander would have ECM (Electronic Counter Measures) deployed to disrupt the PLA defense system. The ECM emitted bu the US would be very disruptive to all PRC electronics. Military & Civillian. Very disruptive indeed.

 

[montyp165]

Re: would MLRS and PGMs be a deterrent force in the taiwan strait against carrier gro

The US, if hostilities were deffintlently imminent, The US theater commander would have ECM (Electronic Counter Measures) deployed to disrupt the PLA defense system. The ECM emitted bu the US would be very disruptive to all PRC electronics. Military & Civillian. Very disruptive indeed.

The topic question itself I think is flawed to begin with, but my view is that ECM here would be no more effective than against Russian forces, wrt systems redundancy and quantity that would be available.

 

[Roger604]

Re: would MLRS and PGMs be a deterrent force in the taiwan strait against carrier gro

I don't think mere ECM is going to disrupt PLA's operations to a point where it can't put together a strike force. The strike force will go passive and home in on the source of the jamming.


In general, I expect a mix of J-8 recon and Y-8 recon to search for the battle group. When one of those are engaged, the possible locations are narrowed down to about a 700 km radius circle. Maybe even a half circle since it's unlikely for the carrier to be on the other side.

Once the locations are narrowed down, then several strike groups with fighters and H-6K's will crisscross the hemisphere. The H-6K, with its big honking radar, will have a good field of search. When the strike group finds the ships or at least finds itself under attack from Standards, they will communicate the location to all the others, as well as call for additional aircraft from the bases.

The H-6K will then fire their missiles, about 18-24 in one salvo (per ship). Hopefully, this will saturate the illuminators of the ships and get a hit.


On top of that, the Type 022 fast attack crafts can be cued in to the location, if you're lucky and they're in the neighborhood. And if you get lucky, a Song or a Yuan lying in wait might discover the ships and relay the location back to base. If you get really lucky, a maritime recon sat might catch the ships.

All in all, a tough job because a lot of the stuff has just entered service. But the pieces are falling into place.

 

[balance]

Re: would MLRS and PGMs be a deterrent force in the taiwan strait against carrier gro

The US, if hostilities were deffintlently imminent, The US theater commander would have ECM (Electronic Counter Measures) deployed to disrupt the PLA defense system. The ECM emitted bu the US would be very disruptive to all PRC electronics. Military & Civillian. Very disruptive indeed.

Again, we assume that US will be fully prepared to anticipate Chinese attack of Taiwan. Timing is the problem. Speed is also the problem. Before you launch ECM attack, hundreds of ballistic missiles were already launched. Yes, I believe that US ECM power is great and very disruptive. But can they save Taiwan? The point is to save Taiwan, not to declare war on PRC. They are a very different scenario, indeed.

 

[rhino123]

Re: would MLRS and PGMs be a deterrent force in the taiwan strait against carrier gro

The question now, is that as China attack, how much force to they need in this attack. What if US together with Japan launched an attack at the same time on the coastal cities of China.
If the strikes from both US and Japan is harsh enough, wouldn't the Chinese pull back her units from Taiwan to help defend against these assaults and wouldn't that freed Taiwan?

 

[balance]

Re: would MLRS and PGMs be a deterrent force in the taiwan strait against carrier gro

The question now, is that as China attack, how much force to they need in this attack. What if US together with Japan launched an attack at the same time on the coastal cities of China.
If the strikes from both US and Japan is harsh enough, wouldn't the Chinese pull back her units from Taiwan to help defend against these assaults and wouldn't that freed Taiwan?

If Japan and US attack Chinese cities, then Japan openly declares war on China. They cannot do this because it will escalate into a new kind of war. Remember that China is a nuclear power. You want to keep it in Taiwan issue only. You don't want to create a new kind of war which will drag many countries and cost many lives.

Japan can attack Chinese coastal cities, and they destroyed 30% of Chinese economy. But if the Chinese attack Japanese cities (which are smaller), they can destroy 70% of Japanese economy.

No, I don't think Japan will actively join us in attacking China. They will provide supply and support, but will not take part. It's suicide.

 

[FriedRiceNSpice]

Re: would MLRS and PGMs be a deterrent force in the taiwan strait against carrier gro

ECM has no effects on unguided ballistic missiles whatsoever... while these missiles wouldn't be able to hit US ships, they will hit fixxed military installations in Taiwan with no problem. The locations of such installations are known, and they do not move around. All you need to know is a coordinate on the map and you can direct ballistic missile fire. You don't need the missile to be guided to hit an airfield... the accuracy of the missile itself is far more than enough.

Japan can attack Chinese coastal cities, and they destroyed 30% of Chinese economy. But if the Chinese attack Japanese cities (which are smaller), they can destroy 70% of Japanese economy.

The question now, is that as China attack, how much force to they need in this attack. What if US together with Japan launched an attack at the same time on the coastal cities of China.

Well, JDSF has no true offensive weapons and PLA does not possess any weapon systems that can threaten the Japanese islands apart from its ballistic missiles, so attacks on each other will only be directed at each other's naval assets. Furthermore, I cannot forsee Japan and China attacking each other's territory in any cirucmstance. Even the USN will not attack Chinese territory unless the PLA does something to seriously escalate the situation.