The War in the Ukraine

reservior dogs

Junior Member
Registered Member
The Ukrainian army has no chance operating in the open. The Russians have the air power and artillery advantage.

If Ukraine wanted to pull out, they would have had to make the withdrawal in small groups over an extended period of time and probably in the night. And regardless of where they pull out to, they will never be in as good a defensive position as in this place which they fortified for like 8 years. If they really want to make a last stand, the best places would be their largest cities, Kharkov, Dnipro, Kiev, and Odessa. But the end result, unless the Russians tire for some reason, is pretty predictable. By the time the Russians get to those places, they will have the experience of storming Mariupol, and possibly also Zaporizhzhia, and Nikolayev, so it won't go as well as the Ukrainian side will expect it to. After the experience with Mariupol against entrenched infantry, Russia rolled out the BMP-T, as I expected. And it seems to have done pretty well. Seems to have been used in the operation in Popasnaya to great effect.
Yes, none of the options are good, but based on how fast the cities are falling nowadays, the Russians seem to have mastered taking cities. Once the Ukrainian arm forces in Donbass is liquidated, none of the remaining cities will have the quantity and quality of the troops currently in Donbass, where as the Russians will be able to straighten out their frontlines and focus all their power on one city at a time. Losing all your best troops in Donbass is not a good strategic move.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Things are moving quickly. It seems the Zolote pocket has already been collapsed.


At this rate, Lysychansk will fall in a week or two, then onwards and Westwards to the final Kramatorsk area. One very odd behavior of the Ukrainian military, never once did they try to get out and regroup West of the Dnipro River. Everyone stays in their cities and gets hammered and taken out.

Losing ground = losing social media likes.

Losing social media likes = losing free western equipment or the holy grail, the 3000 F-35s of Biden coming to rescue them

Losing lives = pics or it didn't happen and what's a few thousand dead grunts compared to some new M777s, HiMARS, etc or potentially F-15s or even a NATO no fly zone?

That's why there's been consistent reports of Ukrainians abandoning dead bodies - even when Russian forces allow them to take the bodies back.

The Ukrainian strategy is to hold on at all cost for media attention which hopefully induces foreign aid and or intervention.

You know who else tried this strategy though? Chiang Kai Shek against Imperial Japan.
 

gelgoog

Brigadier
Registered Member
Yes, none of the options are good, but based on how fast the cities are falling nowadays, the Russians seem to have mastered taking cities. Once the Ukrainian arm forces in Donbass is liquidated, none of the remaining cities will have the quantity and quality of the troops currently in Donbass, where as the Russians will be able to straighten out their frontlines and focus all their power on one city at a time. Losing all your best troops in Donbass is not a good strategic move.
The ideal solution for Ukraine would have been just to implement Minsk 2.0.
Once the Russians recognized LPR/DPR in their Oblast borders they should have just accepted that.
But that would not please neither the nationalists, nor their Western sponsors, so this is the result.

Ukraine and the West fail to realize that Russia will continue with ever increasing demands the longer this drags on. Like I said. Ukraine and the West think Russia will still be receptive to prior offers even after expending men and materiel. But.

No memes please.
 
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Temstar

Brigadier
Registered Member
Zolote Administration building taken, that pocket is collapsing fast.

LPR is now saying Lysychansk pocket will be closed in the next 2-3 days. I recall it was only yesterday when they said it will take about a week. I'm guessing they didn't expect some of those positions to be abandoned so quickly and defenders retreating into Lysychansk. That oil refinery that History Legends mentioned in his video, the Russians are already at the gates of it.
 

mossen

Junior Member
Registered Member
One very odd behavior of the Ukrainian military, never once did they try to get out and regroup West of the Dnipro River. Everyone stays in their cities and gets hammered and taken out.
This is a political decision. UA general staff has reportedly tried to retreat and regroup but were overruled by Zelensky and his criminal gang for optics. Zelensky has many millions stashed in offshore accounts. He has an exitplan, so he doesn't care. He can live as an "overseas president" if things go south for the rest of his days.
 

emblem21

Major
Registered Member
How many personnels were there in Lisitschansk and Severodonetsk cauldron?
Heard it was around 20.000 or less
Not sure how on earth the rest of the army in Ukraine is going to be able to defend the rest of Ukraine if the best soldiers of Ukraine that are trapped in the listschansk and severodonetsk cauldron are basically destroyed. Ukraine only have so many soldiers to use and experience cannot be 3d printed so really if Ukraine loses here, well the rest of Ukraine will eventually belong to Russia and the west (in particular the USA) will have a debacle that is many times worse then Afghanistan. How many tons of weapons have made it to Ukrainian hands exactly?
 

Weaasel

Senior Member
Registered Member
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Uhoh. So much for Ukraine's cunning plan to blow up the bridges on the river so the Russians cannot cross from the Northeast.
They trapped their own people at Azot plant, and now Russia comes in from Popasnaya south of the river. Brilliant.
The Russians sure took their own sweet time doing this but end result is as expected.
Precisely... Such things take time...

Not sure how on earth the rest of the army in Ukraine is going to be able to defend the rest of Ukraine if the best soldiers of Ukraine that are trapped in the listschansk and severodonetsk cauldron are basically destroyed. Ukraine only have so many soldiers to use and experience cannot be 3d printed so really if Ukraine loses here, well the rest of Ukraine will eventually belong to Russia and the west (in particular the USA) will have a debacle that is many times worse then Afghanistan. How many tons of weapons have made it to Ukrainian hands exactly?
Russia will definitely face a guerrilla war in most of Ukraine west of the Dnieper River if it tries to occupy it. Even the Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts, east of the River, have proven to be very hostile territory to Russia. I believe that Russia wants to avoid that...
 
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